Mexican consumers remain cautious about purchasing goods and services, as the Timely Indicator of Private Consumption (IOCP) forecasts a 2.2% annual decline for February 2025 and a 2.5% annual decline for March.
According to figures from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) , on a monthly basis, this indicator forecasts a 0.2% increase in February, while a 0.1% decrease is estimated for March .
According to the aforementioned data, private consumption performance weakened in the first months of 2025, amid a context where headline inflation rose for the second consecutive month last March, reaching 3.8% annually, following the rise seen in February, when it reached 3.77% annually.
It is worth remembering that on March 27, the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) lowered the interest rate to 9% , which was its sixth consecutive cut and the second of 50 basis points , in an environment of uncertainty caused by the United States tariff plan, which was paused for 90 days, although China did not enter this grace period.
According to the financial institution UBS , despite this truce, “the damage has already been done,” and it estimated that there will be a serious impact on global growth, as it is unclear whether taxes will not increase again. It also indicated that the uncertainty will negatively affect economic activity, which will impact the consumption of goods and services.
International organizations such as Fitch Ratings and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) have projected that Mexico could enter a recession due to the tariff plan proposed by Donald Trump , President of the United States.
According to Inegi, the IOCP presents an advance estimate of the Monthly Private Consumption Indicator (IMCP) , and its purpose is to provide timely and accurate estimates of private consumption in Mexico.
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