The manufacturing and service industries boosted Mexico’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2025 (4Q25), registering a 0.8% increase on a quarterly basis , the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) announced on Friday .
According to the Preliminary Estimate of Quarterly Gross Domestic Product (EOPIBT), the Mexican economy also grew by 1.6% year-on-year during the period . In 2025, the preliminary GDP increased by 0.7% compared to 2024.
This result shows an improvement in the country’s economy, despite the tariff environment and the constant trade changes in the world, which have generated uncertainty in international markets.
By sector, in the period October-December 2025, the timely estimate of GDP for primary activities , which includes agriculture, livestock, fishing and mining, showed a decrease of 2.7% in its quarterly measurement.
Meanwhile, secondary activities – comprising the manufacturing industry – as well as tertiary activities – encompassing trade, transport and services – grew 0.9% quarterly in the cycle.
On an annual basis, the GDP of primary activities increased by 6%, that of secondary activities increased by 0.3%, and that of tertiary activities advanced by 2%.
According to analysts, Mexico exceeded recession forecasts and grew more than expected in 2025, although caution will continue this year.
By 2026, Grupo Financiero BASE projected growth of 0.15% to reach 0.9% , driven by the World Cup. However, in a pessimistic scenario, it indicated that GDP would be 0.6% , while in an optimistic projection it could reach 1.4%. Meanwhile, the Mexican government anticipates growth of between 1.3% and 2.5%.
Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated that the Mexican economy could expand by 1.5% this year, as global trade and geopolitical tensions continue to affect various financial markets around the world.
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