After rising in the first months of 2025, inflation in Mexico showed a decline in the first half of July, marked by lower costs for various agricultural products, such as lemons and avocados.
During the reference period, the National Consumer Price Index (INPC) , which measures the variation in prices of a basket of goods and services, reached 3.55% at an annual rate, the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) announced on Thursday .
In the first 15 days of July, the INPC registered a 0.15% variation compared to the previous two weeks.
The core price index , which excludes goods and services with more volatile prices or those that don’t respond to market conditions, showed a biweekly increase of 0.15%. Within this index, the cost of goods increased 0.05% and the cost of services grew 0.24%.
Meanwhile, the non-core price index , which includes goods and services whose prices are more volatile and subject to fluctuations such as weather conditions, grew 0.16%, with agricultural products increasing 0.25%, and energy and government-authorized tariffs increasing 0.12% at a biweekly rate.
With the decline in the INPC in the first 15 days of July, this indicator has seen three consecutive fortnights of decline.
Nopales , up 14.44%; air transport , up 11.25%; lettuce and cabbage , up 8.71%; onions , up 4.20%; and eggs , up 3.29%, were among the products with the highest price increases in the first half of the seventh month of the year.
On the other hand, grapes showed an 11.96% decrease in price; papayas fell 5.86%, lemons fell 5.73%, and green tomatoes and avocados registered price drops of 3.34% and 3.21%, respectively.
According to the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI), Oaxaca, Zacatecas, and Chiapas were among the states with the largest increases in the National Population Index (NCPI) during the period; while Veracruz, Puebla, and Sonora recorded variations below the national average.
With the data released in the first half of July by the National Consumer Price Index (INPC), inflation is approaching the target set by the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) , which is 3% with a variability interval of +/- 1 percent.
According to an analysis by Grupo Financiero Ve por Más (BX+) , the fortnightly variation was the lowest for the first fortnight of July since 2015.
“The year-on-year change fell below 4% for the first time in five observations and saw its lowest change since the second half of January. This was mainly explained by the moderation in non-core index prices—both agricultural and energy—which also faced a high comparison base,” he emphasized.
In its report, BX+ noted that increases in services other than housing and education were notable, specifically those related to tourism (air transportation, tour packages), “which is typical for the summer vacation period. On the other hand, decreases were observed in non-food items (diapers, detergents, clothing, household appliances).”
He noted that the underlying index slowed at the margin after posting seven consecutive upward readings . “Commodities continue to be under pressure, reaching their highest level since February 2024.”
Furthermore, he estimated that year-on-year growth in the CPI could remain below 4% in a context of weak economic growth . However, “we do not rule out revising our projections for this year in the near future,” given the prevalence of upside risks and high uncertainty about the inflation outlook.
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