Despite strong geopolitical and economic uncertainties, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) estimates that cargo revenues will reach $157 billion by 2025 , 5.6% of the industry’s total revenues.
He also said demand is likely to grow by 6% and average yields will be adjusted down by 0.7%, but remain well above pre-pandemic levels.
Similarly, it expects freight rates (quoted in 2014 dollars/kg) to be $1.34 , $0.06 less than in 2024 and 24.4% below 2014 levels.
“Several trends are expected to remain favourable for air cargo in 2025. These include continued geopolitical uncertainty in maritime shipments heading through the Suez Canal and the rise of e-commerce originating in Asia,” he said.
He reiterated that one of the risks to cargo growth will be the incoming Donald Trump administration in the United States, as it brings with it several significant uncertainties.
“Tariffs and trade wars are likely to dampen air cargo demand and also impact business travel. Should these policies reignite inflation with higher interest rates as a policy response, the negative impacts on demand would be exacerbated. However, if the pro-business stance of the first Trump administration continues into this period, the benefits of deregulation and business simplification could be significant,” he said.
Similarly, IATA said it expects the industry to record total revenues of $1.7 trillion , an increase of 4.4% compared to 2024 and will be the first time that the sector’s revenues have seen such a gain. However, expenses are expected to grow by 4% to $940 billion.
It also said net earnings could reach $36.6 billion in 2025 for a net profit margin of 3.6%, a slight improvement from the expected profit of $31.5 billion in 2024.
He also said that operating profit would be $67.5 billion, with a net operating margin of 6.7% (better than the 6.4% expected in 2024).
“We expect airlines to earn global profits of $36.6 billion in 2025. This will be difficult to achieve as airlines take advantage of lower oil prices while maintaining load factors above 83%, tightly controlling costs, investing in decarbonization and managing a return to more normal levels of growth following the extraordinary recovery from the pandemic. All of these efforts will help mitigate several obstacles to profitability that are beyond airlines’ control – namely persistent supply chain challenges, infrastructure shortfalls, burdensome regulation and a growing tax burden,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.
IATA has highlighted the wide-ranging benefits of increasing connectivity , with the latest estimate showing that airline employment is expected to grow to 3.3 million by 2025.
All regions are expected to show better financial performance in 2025 compared to 2024, and to make a collective net profit. Profitability, however, varies widely by carrier and region. For example, the collective net profit margin of African airlines is expected to be the weakest at 0.9%, while Middle Eastern carriers are the strongest at 8.2%.
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