SAN PEDRO GARZA GARCÍA, NL – After what happened at the polls in the last federal elections, nine days into Claudia Sheinbaum’s presidency, there is latent uncertainty regarding the behavior of the main economic indicators and also the continuity that can be had from the previous administration, all in an environment of definition of the presidency in the United States.
At the start of the 22nd edition of Grupo T21’s ETYL , Carlos Elizondo Mayer-Serra raised the question in his keynote address: What can we expect from Claudia Sheinbaum’s presidency?, in which he identified the behavior of the main economic indicators, but also addressed the concerns that exist towards the private initiative and investment generators, and where he asserted that for the current government, the capital that can be channeled from this sector is essential.
Elizondo Mayer-Serra recalled that private investment is at its best historical level as a proportion of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which in the second quarter of 2024 (2Q24) stood at 21.8%, while public investment stood at 2.7 percent.
In addition to the above topics, Carlos Elizondo explained that although there are high records of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), this represents only 10% of total investment, in addition to the fact that in 2023 new investments as a percentage of GDP were only 0.3%, the lowest since 2000.
One element that stood out is that it is the highest in the 21st century and that by 2024 it is expected to be at 5.9% as a percentage of GDP, and that will be a challenge for the administration headed by Claudia Sheinbaum.
Carlos Elizondo Mayer-Serra identified that there is a government agenda that is induced by the fundamentals of the previous administration, and proof of this is the equal-parity cabinet, where there are the same number of members of the current president, but also a specific weight of collaborators of former president Andrés Manuel López Obrador.
Regarding the US elections next November, Elizondo asserted that Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate, could be a better alternative for trade relations with the United States, and in the context of the protectionism that prevails in the speeches of both presidential candidates in the northern neighbor.
In the case of the renegotiation of the Treaty between Mexico, the United States and Canada (TMEC), there is a high level of integration that cannot be ignored.
