In the first quarter of 2025 (1Q25), the figures for the heavy vehicle industry do not leave a positive balance in any lane.
Heavy vehicle production reached 41,311 units in 1Q25, a decrease of 52,809 vehicles compared to the same period in 2024, a drop of 21.8% , reported Rogelio Arzate, executive president of the National Association of Bus, Truck and Tractor-Trailer Producers (ANPACT).
Meanwhile, Arzate reported that exports reached 33,808 vehicles , a 19.7% decrease compared to the previous year, when 42,081 units were shipped abroad.
According to what was presented during the monthly earnings call, Rogelio Arzate reported that production is impacted by the change in emissions standards (NOM-044) and the slowdown in the domestic market due to economic uncertainty; in addition to the impact on exports from the main export market, the United States, which saw a decrease of 31,355 vehicles in the first quarter of 2025, a 19.8% drop compared to the comparison period.
Regarding sales, wholesale sales decreased 39.3% in the first quarter of 2025, with a displacement of 7,930 vehicles. Meanwhile, retail sales stood at 11,188 heavy trucks, a 16.2% decrease compared to the same period in 2024.
Faced with this situation, Rogelio Arzate and his counterpart, Guillermo Rosales, executive president of the Mexican Association of Automobile Dealers (AMDA), stated that it is time to boost the domestic market so that the production plant does not suffer a major negative impact.
“Of the total number of heavy vehicles sold in the country, only 10.3% are imported, so considering incentives for vehicles made in Mexico, such as an accelerated income tax deduction, could boost the market. That’s why we must create a public policy that complements these objectives,” Rosales emphasized.
Meanwhile, Rogelio Arzate emphasized that the Ministry of Economy and the federal government are working closely together to promote fleet renewal through a fund that will reactivate the scrappage scheme.
Based on the most recent data from the Ministry of Infrastructure, Communications and Transport (SICT) , the average age of the trucking fleet (cargo and passenger) is 19.3 years, “this means that the average fleet has Euro 3 emissions technology, although by regulation we are already at Euro 6 / EPA 10 which reduces emissions by up to 90%,” Arzate explained, justifying the importance of promoting renewal.
One point highlighted by ANPACT’s CEO is the decrease in the import of used heavy vehicles from the United States. According to the figures shared, 4,197 units were imported in Q1 2025, a 22.9% decrease compared to the same period in 2024. However, this volume represents 37.7% of retail sales achieved in the first half of the year.
Both Rogelio Arzate and Guillermo Rosales emphasized that Plan Mexico, which seeks to boost national production and strengthen the domestic market by promoting the “Made in Mexico” brand, is a potential industry recovery opportunity.
In AMDA’s marketing outlook for 2025, it was placed in a second scenario with a volume of 52,919 units, which would be a 6.7% drop compared to 2024. However, this scenario was developed based on a 1.5% growth in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). However, with the adjustment in the Bank of Mexico’s (Banxico) Expectations of a growth of just 0.5%, AMDA will make a new calculation to place its outlook for this cycle.
