Due to expectations of lower demand, especially for container and dry bulk transport due to the impact of U.S. tariff policy, Fitch Ratings has revised its outlook for the global shipping sector for 2025 from “neutral” to “deteriorated.”
The rating agency estimated that container volume this year could remain stable or decline slightly compared to 2024 due to the impact of tariffs. The international organization had forecast growth of around 3% in early 2025.
According to his analysis, he noted that global fleet capacity is likely to increase by around 6% , “meaning that even if trade tensions ease and demand subsequently increases, supply will still outstrip demand.”
Fitch Ratings also estimated that container shipping earnings could decline significantly this year compared to 2024, “which previously benefited from Red Sea disruptions that drove up freight rates.”
Given the disruptive scenario facing supply chains due to U.S. protectionist measures, the agency predicted that container freight rates will continue to decline from the peaks reached in mid-2024.
“However, short-term changes in demand, such as the earlier demand due to pending tariff increases and resulting supply chain bottlenecks such as port congestion, could temporarily boost rates,” he noted.
Other risks to container freight rates include the return to normal traffic through the Suez Canal, which could increase effective capacity by more than 10%, the rating agency said, adding that port fees proposed by U.S. trade authorities add further complexity.
“The impact of the proposed plan on shipping lines will vary depending on whether they are Chinese-owned, the proportion of their revenue generated on routes to and from the United States, and the proportion of Chinese-built vessels in their fleet,” he stressed.
He considered that if this plan is implemented, $120 in container fees could be added for non-Chinese operators using Chinese-built vessels starting October 14, 2025.
“We expect global dry bulk volumes to remain broadly unchanged in 2025, while global ocean freight capacity will increase by low to mid-single digits, resulting in weak rates,” he said.
Fitch Ratings estimates that tanker shipping is likely to remain more stable, driven by strong ton-mile demand and the potential for oil inventory replenishment due to lower oil prices.
It’s worth noting that Drewry ‘s Container Forecaster expects the supply-demand balance to weaken again in the second half of the year, which could lead to a further decline in spot rates in the second half of this year.
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