Mexican economic activity could grow between 1.3% and 1.8% during 2026 , reflecting a relative improvement, although insufficient to compensate for the stagnation observed in 2025, according to estimates from the International Chamber of Commerce Mexico (ICC Mexico) .
According to the agency’s projections, this growth would be driven by the export sector , since the country continues to have a key comparative advantage with the rest of the world: preferential access —with zero tariffs— to the markets of the United States and Canada under the current framework of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) , “a condition that acted as a ‘lifeline’ in 2025 and that could continue to sustain economic activity in the first half of 2026.”
“Until there is a clear definition on the future of the USMCA, the Mexican economy will continue to operate under the umbrella of the current treaty, which will allow for some stability in exports, although this advantage is not guaranteed in the medium term,” according to the analysis of the Economic Policy Group of ICC Mexico.
In December 2025, the value of Mexico’s exports was 60,651 million dollars (USD), an annual increase of 17.2% , while the accumulated value for 2025 was 664,837 million USD , an annual growth of 7.6%, according to figures released by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) .
By July of this year, the review of the trilateral trade agreement will formally begin, a process that is anticipated to be long, complex and politically sensitive; in addition, it is estimated that there will be some changes, which have already been expressed by US authorities.
On January 28, Marcelo Ebrard, head of the Ministry of Economy , and Jamieson Greer, United States Trade Representative (USTR) , held a meeting in which they addressed a series of possible reforms to the trade agreement, including stricter rules of origin for key industrial goods.
In that regard, ICC Mexico indicated that the review could extend beyond 2026 , which would maintain high levels of uncertainty, particularly regarding investment.
Regarding private consumption , he projected that although it has remained relatively stable, this indicator continues to reflect the effects associated with uncertainty about US economic policy, the review of the USMCA and the international geopolitical environment, “so a vigorous recovery is not anticipated during the year.”
According to data from Inegi, private consumption in Mexico registered an increase of 0.8% during October 2025 compared to last September, and in its annual measurement it also increased 4.1%, derived from an increase in the acquisition of foreign products.
“Among the factors that could provide an additional boost —albeit a temporary one— is the celebration of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, which could benefit tourism, services and trade, with a positive but short-lived impact,” he said.
Regarding inflation , ICC Mexico estimated that during some periods of 2026 it could be above 4 percent.
“This environment will lead the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to adopt a more cautious stance, anticipating only two additional interest rate cuts during 2026, which would bring the benchmark rate to close the year at 6.5%, slowing the pace of monetary easing previously observed,” he projected.
ICC Mexico predicted that the Mexican peso could remain relatively strong in the first half of the year ; however, as the review of the USMCA progresses, episodes of volatility would occur, so the exchange rate could close 2026 around 18 pesos per dollar , “under a base scenario without a clear definition of the treaty.”
The organization stressed that if a mutually agreeable agreement is not reached among the three countries that make up the USMCA, the treaty would not be terminated, as its legal validity extends until 2036.
“The mechanism provided for in the treaty itself stipulates that, in the absence of consensus among the three countries, annual reviews will be activated, while the agreement remains fully operational,” he explained.
Although the central scenario assumes that the treaty will eventually be ratified, the activation of annual review mechanisms, bilateral negotiations, or additional pressures that affect investor confidence cannot be ruled out.
Comment and follow us on X: @GrupoT21
