The return to school influenced the rise in inflation in Mexico during the first half of September 2025, according to data from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) .
According to the National Consumer Price Index (INPC) , which measures the price variation of a basket of goods and services, this indicator stood at 3.74% at an annual rate in the first half of the ninth month of the year, marking three consecutive fortnights with increases.
This increase represented a 0.18% increase compared to the previous two-week period; while the core price index , which excludes goods and services with more volatile prices or those that don’t respond to market conditions, increased 0.22% on a two-weekly basis, with merchandise prices up 0.23% and services prices up 0.20%.
Also on a biweekly basis, the non-core price index —which includes goods and services whose prices are more volatile and subject to significant fluctuations, such as weather conditions and other factors—increased 0.03 percent . Within this index, fruit and vegetable prices increased 0.24 percent, and energy prices decreased 0.04 percent.
Variations in product prices
The products that registered the greatest increases during the period were marked by the start of the 2025-2026 school year, which were: preschool with an increase of 5.89%, primary with 5.75%, secondary with 5.48%, high school with 2.71%, university with 1.63%, as well as some basic basket inputs such as chicken , with a rise in its price of 0.50 percent.
On the other hand, professional services (15.31%), avocados (5.94%), oranges (4.66%), potatoes and other tubers (4.29%), and air transportation (3.37%) were the products that saw the greatest price declines in September 2025.
Among the states with the largest increases in the National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) are Tabasco, Nuevo León, Mexico City, Zacatecas, and Guanajuato. Meanwhile, Chiapas, Aguascalientes, the State of Mexico, Quintana Roo, and Baja California Sur were among the states with variations below the national average.
With the figure for the first half of September showing an increase in the INPC, inflation remains above the Bank of Mexico’s (Banxico) target of 3%, with a variability range of +/- 1 percent.
According to an analysis by Grupo Financiero Ve por Más (BX+) , the biweekly variation was driven by educational services, which is usual every year due to the start of the school year.
“To a lesser extent, the increase in non-food items was notable, which in part also reflected the return to school (clothing, children’s shoes, school supplies). On the other hand, the decrease in services other than housing and education was notable, particularly those associated with tourism (air travel, package tours, hotels), which reflected the end of summer vacation,” he noted.
The financial institution specified that the underlying index was under pressure at the margin due to the merchandise component, and grew above 4 percent for eight weeks. “Underlying inflation remains reluctant to decline despite the slow economic growth,” it emphasized.
“Year-on-year growth in the CPI could remain below 4% in a context of slow economic growth. However, the inflation outlook is still somewhat complex,” he noted.
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