According to the Timely Estimate of Quarterly Gross Domestic Product (EOPIBT) , published this Thursday by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) , the Mexican economy contracted in the third quarter of 2025 (3Q25), which is its first decline so far this year , marked by a decrease in industrial activities.
In Q3 2025, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fell 0.3% both quarterly and year-on-year , according to seasonally adjusted figures.
The agency indicated that in the period July-September 2025, the GDP of primary activities , which include agriculture, mining and fishing, grew 3.2% quarterly .
Meanwhile, the secondary sector , which includes manufacturing and construction, showed a 1.5% decrease quarter-on-quarter during the same period. The tertiary sector , which includes services such as commerce, transportation and communications, education, and health, saw a 0.1% increase quarter-on-quarter.
“The Timely Estimate of Quarterly Gross Domestic Product offers, in the short term, a view on the evolution of the country’s economic activities,” Inegi explained regarding this indicator.
According to analysts, the uncertainty generated by the United States tariffs offers a low expectation of growth for the Mexican economy for the remainder of the year.
It is worth remembering that Mexico’s GDP grew 0.6% in the second quarter of 2025, driven mainly by the manufacturing and service industries, so if the INEGI estimate from this Thursday is confirmed, the country’s economy would be heading for a decline.
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