During 2025, the Transport and Logistics Confidence Index (ICTYL)maintained a constant downward trend, reflecting the reality of the sector in the face of a national economic and geopolitical environment that created uncertainty and affected the business.
The ICTYL is the first confidence indicator for the logistics and transport sector, developed by T21 Business Intelligence , which has been carried out since the first quarter of 2018 (1Q18) , and includes surveys of approximately 150 entrepreneurs, managers and users of the industry.
The aforementioned context caused the index to fall in the first three quarters of 2025; however, in the fourth quarter (4Q25) it registered a recovery, reaching 83.0 points from the previous 73.7 points.
Business optimism was also assessed and the negative indicator was reversed, reaching 14.77 points in Q4 2025 from -9.40 points in the third quarter of 2025 (Q3 2025) .
When business owners were asked about the performance of their businesses, 52.5% identified Q4 2025 as favorable , while 47.5% considered it negative.
In the estimate for the first quarter of 2026 (1Q26), 62.1% of respondents identified this period as positive, and there was also a contraction in the negative outlook, which stood at 37.9 percent.
When ICTYL participants were asked about their revenue performance in Q4 2025, 35% indicated a decrease, while 20% confirmed that it remained the same or did not grow. Among the companies that reported growth, 15% indicated an increase of 5% or less.
When reviewing the 2025 closing versus 2024 in revenue, 50% of the surveyed executives shared that there was no growth in this cycle, while 20% reported having an increase of between 1% and 5%, as identified in the ICTYL.
Among the threats observed to maintaining business growth, participants indicated that the pace of the economy is the main factor, followed by insecurity and political uncertainty , elements that can affect the behavior of companies.
According to the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) , the Global Indicator of Business Confidence Opinion (IGOEC) registered, in December 2025, a monthly difference of 0.1 points, while in the annual comparison it stood at -3.5 units, to total 48.5 points in the measurement.
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