The Transport and Logistics Confidence Index (ICTYL), conducted by T21 Business Intelligence since 2018, highlighted in its first quarter of 2025 (1Q25) exercise the impact of US President Donald Trump’s decisions among the main factors threatening business.
Unlike what had happened in previous quarters, where public insecurity and increased operating costs had been the main threats, in 1Q25 “Political uncertainty” is the factor that most worries business owners and managers, followed by the “Pace of the national economy” , while in third place were “Public insecurity” and “Increased operating costs” .
The ICTYL survey included approximately 140 executives and managers in the transportation and logistics sectors, where the confidence indicator stood at 85.2 points (1Q18=100) in 1Q25, marking the third quarter of decline and the second below 100 points.
When asked about “Business Volume” in Q1 2025, 24% of respondents responded that it grew between 5% and 10%, while 22.4% said it did not grow or remained stable.
Meanwhile, when asked about the pace of business in 1Q25, 59.2% reported a “Favorable” performance , while 40.8% rated it as “Unfavorable.”
Regarding the outlook for 2Q25, 61.2% considered it to be “Favorable,”while 38.8% stated that it will be “Unfavorable.”
Regarding the U.S. government’s tariff implementation policy, 33% of respondents believed it would have a significant impact on their businesses , while the same percentage identified a moderate impact.
The ICTYL results are in line with the Business Confidence Indicator (ICE) of the National Institute of Geography (INEGI) , which in April fell to 49.4 points, a level not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic, when it stood at 43.9 points, marking its third consecutive month of decline.
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