At the close of the third quarter of 2025 (3Q25), the Transport and Logistics Confidence Index (ICTYL), developed by T21 Business Intelligence (T21 BI) , identified that this indicator had seen five consecutive quarters of decline ; it should be noted that this exercise has been conducted since the first quarter of 2018 (1Q18).
The ICTYL, which surveys more than 140 transportation and logistics business owners and managers , who are already users of these services, reveals the pace of their businesses during the quarter that just ended, as well as the outlook for the current quarter, and the main factors that may affect their companies.
In Q3 2025, the ICTYL index stood at 73.7 points (Q1 18 = 100), down from 78.6 points in the previous quarter (Q2 2025). The business confidence monitor stood at -9.40 during the period analyzed, returning to negative territory after 22 quarters. In this case, values above “0” signal optimism.
Based on the T21 BI exercise, in 3Q25, 69% of respondents identified the pace as unfavorable for the period . And regarding the outlook for the fourth quarter of 2025 (4Q25), the year-end, 61.2% of respondents anticipated it to be favorable.
Regarding revenue, 44.8% of ICTYL participants considered that this component decreased during 3Q25 , while 17.2% stated that it “did not grow or remained stable.”
In contrast, 13.8% responded that their business “grew between 5% and 10%,” while 10.3% “grew between 10% and 15%.”
When reviewing factors that could be considered a threat to the pace of business, 18.26% of ICTYL survey participants considered “political uncertainty” to be the most significant risk, surpassing “public insecurity” at 13.91%.
Regarding the current situation, regarding the impact of the United States government’s tariff policies and the effect on the pace of business, 41% of respondents identified it as high , which, among other factors, has motivated them to rethink routes, change cost structures, investments, or trade relations.
The Manufacturing Industries Business Confidence Index (ICE) , conducted by the National Institute of Geography and Statistics (INEGI) , stood at 49.7 points last September , 0.3 points higher than the previous month. “With this figure, the indicator is below the 50-point threshold for the seventh consecutive month. The monthly performance of the indicator resulted in increases in three of its five components, one remained stable, and the other fell,” the agency’s statement detailed
The “right time to invest” category stood at 37.8 points , 0.5 points higher than in August. The “current economic situation of the country” category reached 49.5 points, a change of just 0.1 points compared to the previous month.
The “current economic situation of the company” fell into negative territory , reaching 51.0 points, a decrease of 0.2 points compared to the previous month.
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