Within the framework of a scenario where there is a slowdown in production and exports due to the drop in demand from the main market, the United States, the domestic market maintains a positive pace, although there are “screws to tighten.”
In this context, the prospects for the industry that participates in the national market have challenges ahead, which must be addressed head-on, expressed specialists within the framework of the AMDA 2024 Forum , organized by the Mexican Association of Automotive Distributors (AMDA) .
Regarding the outlook for the industry and global competition, Many Katakis, senior analyst at S&P Global Mobility, reiterated that Mexico is a crucial source of light and heavy vehicle production, surpassing countries such as Japan and Germany in volume.
However, he warned about growing competition from China, especially in the export from this territory of trucks and buses with alternative fuels such as natural gas and electricity.
Katakis also noted that Chinese truck imports have increased significantly, with 25% of mid-size commercial vehicles being alternative fuels. This growth in Chinese imports poses a challenge for Mexico, which is heavily dependent on the US market.
He noted that big players such as PACCAR , TRATON and Daimler Truck will continue to dominate the market in 2024.
Likewise, Jorge Arturo Gordillo Arias, director of Economic and Stock Market Analysis at CI Banco , highlighted the importance of nearshoring for attracting investments in Mexico , estimating that it should exceed 40 billion dollars.
In addition, Gordillo mentioned that production and inputs in the automotive sector are performing well, but emphasized the need to improve conditions to attract more investment and compete globally.
In the perspective of Guillermo Rosales, executive president of AMDA, despite the adverse movements in production and exports, the domestic market showed a notable recovery, with the marketing of 22,052 units of heavy commercial vehicles, which represents a increase of 10.1% compared to the previous year and 24% more than in May 2019.
“By the end of 2024, sales could exceed 56,000 units, very close to 57,000 units, establishing a new sales record in Mexico, surpassing the 2007 record,” Rosales said.
At the end of last May, the production of heavy units in Mexico decreased 15% compared to the same cycle in 2023, totaling 79,900 units produced. Meanwhile, exports had a decrease of 15.8% to reach 63,404 units sent abroad in the same cycle.
A point to highlight is Mexico’s position as a world leader in the production of heavy vehicles, emphasized Virginia Olalde, director of Foreign Trade and Economic Studies of the National Association of Bus, Truck and Tractor Producers (ANPACT) . In 2023, the industry broke a record with the production of 222,813 units, of which 177,541 were for export.
“Mexico remains the world’s leading exporter of tractor-trailers and the fourth largest exporter of heavy vehicles. This industry generates employment and social development in more than 10 states of the republic, with 12 manufacturing plants in operation,” Olalde clarified.
However, he stressed the need to renew the vehicle fleet and improve environmental regulations to continue being competitive globally.
The AMDA 2024 forum made it clear that , despite the current challenges , the projections for the automotive sector in Mexico are positive. The combination of a robust domestic market, leadership in the production of heavy vehicles and the commitment to the renewal and improvement of environmental regulations, positions Mexico to continue being a key player in the global automotive industry.
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