During the third quarter of 2026 (3Q26), the confidence of transport and logistics business owners resumed its recovery trajectory, marking two consecutive quarters of growth. The Transport and Logistics Confidence Index (ICTYL) reached 105.4 points , representing an increase of 8.1 points compared to the previous quarter and its highest level since the third quarter of 2024.
After hitting a low of 75.1 points in the first quarter of 2026 (1Q26), the indicator advanced to 97.3 units in the second quarter (2Q26) and finally surpassed the 100-point barrier in the July-September period.
The ICTYL is the only confidence indicator in the transport and logistics industry, developed by T21 Business Intelligence with the aim of monitoring the pace followed in this economic sector, for which more than 140 managers and entrepreneurs linked to the provision of logistics and transport services, as well as users of these means, are consulted.
The results of Q3 2026 were also reflected in business confidence , which measures participants’ optimism about the economic situation of the country and their companies. This component stood at 72.58 points , an increase of 20.95 points compared to Q2 2026, marking two consecutive periods of recovery after registering a negative balance (-5.70 points) in the first quarter of 2026.
Regarding business performance , 90.9% of business owners rated their companies’ performance as favorable during the July-September period, while 9.1% considered it unfavorable . However, for the last quarter of the year (October-December), the favorable outlook decreased to 81.8%, while 18.2% anticipated unfavorable conditions.
This difference shows that, although the perception of recent results has improved, there is greater caution regarding the end of 2026. Business optimism is based more on observed performance than on expectations for the coming months.
Revenue is growing, but costs are putting pressure on the economy.
One of the factors that supported the recovery of confidence was revenue performance . During Q3 2026, 72.7% of companies reported year-over-year growth in revenue , while 27.3% indicated no growth or no change .
Among the companies that reported progress, 36.4% had growth of less than 5%, 18.2% increased between 5 and 10%, 9.1% registered an increase of between 10 and 15%, and another 9.1% exceeded 15 percent.
Costs and insecurity, among the main threats
Despite the recovery of the ICTYL in Q3 2026, business leaders identified factors that could limit their companies’ growth during the last quarter of the year.
Rising operating costs and the pace of the national economy topped the list of threats , each cited by 63.6% of respondents. Public insecurity came in second , mentioned by 54.5% of participants.
Weak demand and political uncertainty each accounted for 45.5%, while staffing shortages reached 36.4%. Other factors mentioned included the peso-dollar exchange rate at 18.2%, and increased competition in the sector at 9.1%.
These results show that the recovery of confidence coexists with a complex operating environment. On the one hand, revenue growth and a favorable business outlook underpin optimism; on the other, costs, uncertainty, and the evolution of the national economy continue to influence business decisions.
Thus, the ICTYL has once again risen above its 2018 baseline , confirming two consecutive quarters of recovery . However, the challenge for the transport and logistics sector will be to translate this improved outlook into sustained growth, without operational pressures and environmental risks reducing company profitability.
In September 2026, the Global Business Confidence Opinion Indicator (IGOEC) registered a monthly increase of 0.1 points but a year-on-year decrease of 1 point. With this latest observation, the indicator has remained below the 50-point threshold for 19 consecutive months, according to the results of the Monthly Business Opinion Survey (EMOE) conducted by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) .
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