For more than three decades, North America’s manufacturing competitiveness has been measured by one fundamental principle: the origin of goods. From NAFTA to the current USMCA, rules of origin and regional content requirements have been the mechanism for determining which products can benefit from preferential tariff treatment. However, a new school of thought suggests that the real challenge for the region is no longer where a product is manufactured, but rather how capable the supply chain is of moving it reliably, safely, and sustainably .
That is the thesis put forward by researchers Gastón Cedillo and Christopher Mejía Argueta in an analysis published by Supply Chain Management Review , where they propose evolving from traditional “rules of origin” towards “rules of resilience” , capable of recognizing the strategic value of logistics networks in an environment marked by uncertainty.
The proposal takes on particular relevance at a time when North America is seeking to consolidate itself as a productive bloc in the face of global geopolitical tensions and the realignment of supply chains resulting from nearshoring . According to the authors, the disruptions of recent years have exposed a structural weakness: knowing where a good was manufactured does not provide information about whether it can cross borders efficiently, safely, and at competitive costs.
The problem is that the main risks are no longer concentrated in production plants. Border closures, cargo theft, digital logistics fraud , infrastructure congestion, labor disputes, energy disruptions, and geopolitical tensions have become factors capable of eroding the value of a commodity even after it has been manufactured.
From this perspective, Mexico faces one of its greatest challenges . The increase in cargo theft, the saturation of some border crossings, port bottlenecks, and the need to modernize customs processes are all factors that could directly impact regional competitiveness. The discussion, therefore, shifts from focusing exclusively on the regional content of a product to the capacity of logistics corridors to guarantee operational continuity.
To measure this capacity, the authors propose four dimensions: reliability, security, redundancy, and governance . The first refers to the predictability of transit times; the second, to protection against theft and fraud; the third, to the existence of alternative routes, suppliers, and crossings; and the fourth, to institutional coordination among authorities and agencies involved in the cross-border movement of goods.
The proposal goes beyond a conceptual approach. Cedillo and Mejía Argueta suggest creating a Logistics Resilience Credit Score , a kind of rating that would reward logistics chains with the best performance in variables such as transit time variability, cargo loss rates, emissions, and route redundancy. Following this logic, resilience could become a recognized economic asset within the region’s trade mechanisms.
They also propose a Digital Resilience Certificate , capable of documenting and verifying the logistical performance of each shipment, similar to how a certificate of origin currently operates. The goal would be to generate trust, traceability, and transparency among exporters, carriers, authorities, insurers, and customers.
Although the proposal is still in the academic sphere, the approach aligns with an increasingly evident reality for industry: North America’s competitive advantage will no longer depend solely on producing within the region, but rather on the ability to move goods smoothly in an increasingly complex environment . In this context, the upcoming review of the USMCA could open the door to a conversation that goes beyond rules of origin and positions logistical resilience as a new indicator of regional economic integration.
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