The Transport and Logistics Confidence Index (ICTYL) returned to negative territory in the first quarter of 2026 (1Q26), reflecting the uncertainty in this industry. This follows a recovery in the fourth quarter of 2025 (4Q25), when the index had even surpassed 80 points .
Based on the ICTYL report for Q1 2026, the confidence index stood at 75.1 points, the second worst record since the third quarter of 2020, the year in which the COVID-19 pandemic was faced.
The ICTYL is the only confidence indicator in the transport and logistics industry, developed by T21 Business Intelligence with the aim of monitoring the pace followed in this important economic sector, for which more than 140 managers and entrepreneurs linked to the provision of logistics and transport services, as well as users of these means, are consulted.
According to ICTYL, business confidence optimism fell below zero, registering at -5.70 points . In this category, all values above zero indicate optimism .
When participants were asked how they assessed the pace of business in Q1 2026, 65.4% reported it as “unfavorable .” Meanwhile, for the second quarter of 2026 (Q2 2026), 61.5% of participants have a “favorable” outlook.
Revenue levels are another factor that highlights the industry’s pace. When ICTYL members were asked how revenue levels performed in Q1 2026 compared to Q1 2025, 46.2% of respondents indicated a decrease .
It is worth noting that in response to the same question, 19.2% reported that their billing activity grew between 5% and 10%. Considering all growth responses, it was found that 30.8% of participants increased their billing by 5% to more than 15%, according to ICTYL.
Among the risk factors that could pose a threat to the company’s growth, insecurity did not rank among the top concerns ; in fact, it was the fifth risk identified, with only 9.3% of the responses.
The main risk considered was the “Pace of the national economy”, which captured 19.4% of the responses . “Increased operating costs” contributed 17.6%, “Political uncertainty” 14.8%, and “Weak demand” 13%.
According to the Global Business Confidence Opinion Indicator (IGOEC) of the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) , the confidence of Mexican businessmen fell 0.2 points in April 2026 in relation to last March and also decreased 0.4 units at an annual rate.
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