The growing geopolitical tension in the Middle East, which has forced the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, opens a window of opportunity for nearshoring in the Cali-Baja region , which, being close to the United States, the world’s largest consumer market, can be an option for various industries that still have part of their production in Asia.
“This could be an opportunity to position Cali-Baja and Mexico as relocation centers, since our geography continues to help us a lot to bring all the supply chain closer to the production points and finally to the consumption points,” said Bertha Martínez, coordinator of the Bachelor’s Degree in International Logistics at CETYS University Campus Mexicali .
In an interview with T21, the specialist explained that the crisis in Hormuz is accelerating the need to regionalize supply chains , to make them more centralized and less fragmented, given the uncertainty that prevails in world trade.
“Supply chains are no longer focused so much on costs; they must focus on resilience, on the ability to resolve unforeseen events in times of uncertainty , when they become fragile and inflection points begin. Perhaps what makes us most vulnerable right now is what can ultimately make us stronger,” Martínez explained.
In this context, the Cali-Baja region becomes an attractive point for companies that are looking to diversify their supply and logistics routes to reduce their dependence on critical or strategic blocks.
Cali-Baja, which encompasses San Diego and Imperial counties in the United States and Baja California in Mexico, is one of the most important areas for the process of reconfiguring supply chains in North America.
According to the Binational Trade & Competitiveness Report 2025 , prepared by the World Trade Center San Diego , 30% of the foreign value added present in U.S. exports comes from Mexico and Canada , reflecting the integration of the three countries in North American supply chains.
One of the trends that companies are implementing to anticipate disruptions is inventory planning , as they seek to strengthen their stock , but not at the point of sale, as traditionally happens.
“We are now seeing inventories as fragmented around the world; they are being established as safety stockpiles in different locations so that when there are routes that cannot be accessed or points that cannot be considered for operation at that moment, they can be moved to other places,” he pointed out.
Martínez considered that Cali-Baja could have an advantage in that situation, since its geographical location makes it a strategic area.
“It could be a kind of hub where companies could locate their inventories in case of any disruption or crisis at a global level, so that companies have these safety stocks,” he noted, emphasizing that this could accelerate the arrival of investments to Baja California.
In 2025 alone, Baja California attracted 1.892 billion dollars, placing it in fourth position nationally, according to data from the Ministry of Economy (SE) .
Crisis in Hormuz triggers logistical costs
The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz has caused an increase in the price of gasoline and diesel in the United States, fuels essential for the cross-border transport of goods.
“They’ve already seen price increases; for example, the price of gasoline in the Los Angeles, California area has risen by almost 70 cents per gallon, which is quite significant. The same has happened with diesel. The price is between five dollars and 5.30 dollars per gallon in Southern California,” Martínez explained.
Data from the American Automobile Association (AAA) indicates that diesel has increased by 34% compared to the price recorded before the conflict between the United States and Israel against Iran, representing the largest increase in more than three years.
The increase in fuel prices in the United States is impacting logistics costs, because they directly affect inputs in this sector, which has also led to an increase in freight prices , due to the integration of supply chains between Mexico and the United States.
The logistics specialist commented that in California, these supplies are more expensive than in other states in the neighboring country to the north. “The cost structure in the logistics sector, due to fuel and diesel prices, is already being affected. Carriers are beginning to see these changes and are starting to be more strategic in their supply chains.”
According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) , the transit of ships through the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately a quarter (25%) of the world’s maritime oil trade passes, has registered a drastic drop of 97% in daily transits.
Despite this, global supply chains are shifting from cost efficiency to risk management. In this context, Cali-Baja emerges as one of the best-positioned regions to capitalize on a current situation affecting various economic blocs worldwide .
The second edition of ETYL Cali-Baja (Transport and Logistics Meeting) will take place on May 14th. This forum, organized by Grupo T21 , will bring together industry leaders and nearly 200 attendees at the Real Inn Hotel in Tijuana. Through four panels, specialists will analyze the challenges and opportunities in the binational logistics context and its impact on supply chains .
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