In Latin America, both Mexico and Brazil would be the countries most affected by a potential total closure of the Strait of Hormuz , although the partial closure has already led to price increases and shortages of products—such as helium and methanol—due to disruptions in global maritime and air transport. For some commodities , the impact would be felt not only in supply chains but also in basic food items.
Arcadio Martínez, VP Global Tender Management at DSV Air & Sea, specified that, in maritime transport, the most exposed would be Mexico, as well as Brazil due to its direct service from Asian ports and its connection to the Persian Gulf .
“The other countries wouldn’t be as exposed, but the impact on air travel would be felt by almost everyone. Gulf airlines operate many services worldwide. Emirates, for example, has a service via Miami to Bogotá or Brazil, or to other countries. Initially, they offered passenger transport, which allowed for cheaper air freight, and then cargo services, which have disappeared because they’ve repositioned themselves in other traffic. The delay in maritime transport will lead to an increase in air freight, and Latin America will be affected by the reduced available capacity,” he explained in the webinar “The Crisis in the Middle East: What Does It Mean for Your Supply Chain?”
Santiago Zapata, Business Development Specialist Sales Colombia at DSV, explained that there has been an 8% impact on global air capacity , as well as a 40% increase in fuel prices.
He emphasized that Emirates and Qatar Airways are among the most affected airlines, which has harmed their services to Latin America and forced them to relocate fleets.
“The shutdown affects 13% of global capacity, and we have three factors that, combined, will not allow for fare stability and will continue the trend of maintaining inflationary pressure and the loss of capacity globally . In addition, some airlines have implemented war surcharges , and insurance premiums have increased,” he noted.
According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) , risk premiums for ships operating in the area have increased by up to 300%, quadrupling insurance costs per voyage in some cases, adding to the price of the shipment.
He added that there is currently more than 20% capacity between Asia and Europe, while in South Asia it exceeds 13%, “which affects volumes across the entire region.”
Arcadio Martinez explained that, since the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz began on February 28, stemming from Iran’s offensive within the framework of the conflict it faces with the United States-Israeli axis, fuel prices for shipping companies have skyrocketed, to the point of doubling, so companies have begun to implement emergency fuel surcharges (EFS), in addition to the war surcharge .
“Shipping companies have fuel costs that account for 25% of their expenses, and if it’s almost 50%, they’ll lose a lot of money, which is why they’re implementing this surcharge. If a container is moved from Asia to Latin America, we’ll be affected; that explains the price increase in Los Angeles and Long Beach,” he explained.
In that regard, Santiago Zapata said that shipping companies will begin to redistribute their fleets on the most profitable routes to Europe or Asia , which could affect Latin America, since that region can afford a larger fleet, just like North America.
“This will cause many services that do not originate directly from the Middle East region to be affected, such as those that come through the Caribbean,” he stressed.
As of March 16, 2026, 140 active container ships with a combined capacity of 458,000 TEUs (twenty-foot equivalent units) were stranded in the Persian Gulf, representing 1.9% of the global fleet. This resulted in the disruption of 650,000 TEUs of weekly traffic.
“A prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz would force a reconfiguration of these services. Furthermore, we have options: leave the cargo at transshipment ports and wait for the following weeks and accept the delay, repurchase the cargo elsewhere and send it via a route that is safer, and return the cargo to its origin,” he added.
He mentioned that MSC , Maersk , and CMA CGM are the main shipping companies affected by the conflict in the Middle East.
Under this scenario, both specialists pointed out that it is necessary to anticipate urgent shipments and have a clear vision of the forecast ; in addition, impacts on transit times to Latin America, lack of services, some shipping companies may even avoid certain ports, or China may increase the production of new containers, among other things.
Martínez and Zapata indicated that 20 million barrels and between 120 and 140 ships pass through the Strait of Hormuz daily , while after the blockade it dropped to between four and five, only oil tankers, from Iran.
Similarly, Arcadio Martínez explained that the impact is not only on crude oil, but also on products such as urea, helium, sulfur, methanol, aluminum, polyethylene, and others .
“This region is a major producer of raw materials, and we are currently in the spring planting season in the Northern Hemisphere, which will lead to an increase in fertilizer prices, as well as in the price of food and helium, which is used in electrocardiogram machines. Given the revolution we are experiencing in artificial intelligence and data centers, this will cause a standstill. This will generate a cascading effect if it is not resolved soon, and the longer supply chains remain closed, the longer it will take to reopen them,” he explained.
Martínez predicted that if crude oil production were to stop, for example, in Iraq, it would take up to a month and a half to reach the same levels as before the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz.
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