Uncertainty surrounding US trade policies and geopolitical conflicts, such as those in the Middle East, will continue to affect air cargo this year, particularly in terms of rates; however, high-value products and e-commerce will drive growth in air freight.
Rubén Mascaraque, Corporate Airfreight Product Manager at TIBA , emphasized that the demand for high-value products—such as iPhone smartphones and sensitive goods (pharmaceuticals and perishables)—will continue to drive e-commerce, despite the contraction from China and the challenges arising from the conflict in the Middle East.
In addition to the growth of semiconductors , which are fundamental to artificial intelligence (AI), and developments in the automotive industry, during the webinar “Air Cargo Outlook 2026 ,” it was suggested that the impact on maritime transport will benefit air transport.
Leonel Ortiz, Vice President of Operations at Avianca Cargo , explained that air cargo has registered constant growth since 2024, while in 2025 it reached record levels.
He recalled that in January of this year, moderate growth was expected, driven by e-commerce , disruptions in maritime transport, nearshoring (relocation of production lines) and high-value perishables, where Latin America only handles 3% globally; however, the value is significant and “that makes it more attractive.”
He mentioned that, in the case of Colombia, the export of flowers, perishables and pharmaceuticals , and, in terms of imports, e-commerce, technology and consumer goods have made this country a key player in the air transport market.
“ E-commerce is changing the game. Recent growth has been close to 30%. Now there are more shipments, smaller and more frequent, which changes operations. We’ve gone from consolidation to a constant flow. E-commerce will continue to drive demand for air cargo in the coming years,” he said.
William Rojas, Director of Cargo and Platform at El Dorado Airport in Colombia, commented that as part of the supply chain and ecosystem, an integrated model is required, a public policy for the development of procedures and regulations that facilitate cargo handling.
“We know that there are risks associated with the logistics chain and this is what we would seek to anticipate, identify and map as ecosystems, although we do not disregard the good practices carried out in other airports such as the ONE Record initiative of the International Air Transport Association (IATA) for predictability,” he explained.
In 2025, El Dorado Airport handled 829,000 tons of cargo , a 2.4% year-on-year increase, primarily in the transport of flowers and perishable goods. It also has 24 cargo airlines operating in Bogotá.
Impact of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz
Rubén Mascaraque mentioned that the conflict between the United States and Israel against Iran has caused a loss of approximately 13% in air capacity, although in some weeks it has reached up to 18% , in addition to route changes that have increased operating costs. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has impacted fuel supplies, cutting off 20% of the global supply.
“ Fuel prices are rising, and this is something we will continue to see impacting fares in the coming weeks or months; congestion at other airports, we are not aware of it happening right now, but there will be a rebound effect in the coming weeks because there is a lot of demand from the Asian market to Europe, the United States and the Latin American market, which will bring more complications to an already strained supply chain,” he stated.
He noted that in 2025, global air cargo grew by 3.7% year-on-year , led by the Asia-Pacific region with an increase of 4.2%, while Latin America increased by 2.3%, with Peru and Panama driving this growth, in addition to Brazil, Colombia and Mexico, which hold 60% of the market share.
Meanwhile, the United States was one of the countries that fell, largely due to its tariff policies which, starting in April 2025, complicated e-commerce, also for the part of China that diverted cargo.
“There was sufficient capacity, but aircraft production isn’t progressing at the desired pace, resulting in a significant backlog of orders that represents almost 60% of the active fleet. This often means that airlines have had to ground aircraft for repairs, adjusting their fleets, and this has also negatively impacted capacity. It is expected that the situation will begin to normalize and that these pending aircraft will be delivered by the beginning of 2030,” Mascaraque stated.
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