The World Trade Organization (WTO) released the 2025 edition of its World Trade Report , revealing that if accompanied by appropriate policies, artificial intelligence (AI) could increase cross-border trade in goods and services by up to 40% by 2040 .
The report projects that AI, by improving productivity and reducing trade costs, has the potential to generate an increase in global trade of between 34% and 37% , depending on the degree of technological and policy convergence between economies at different income levels. Furthermore, global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) could grow by between 12% and 13%.
“AI has enormous potential to reduce trade costs and boost productivity. However, access to AI technologies and the ability to participate in digital trade remain highly unequal,” said WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala.
On the other hand, the report noted that the number of quantitative restrictions on AI-related goods has increased from 130 in 2012 to nearly 500 by 2024 , primarily in high- and upper-middle-income economies. Furthermore, bound tariffs on these goods reach up to 45% in some low-income economies, limiting equitable access to technologies.
However, he reported that for this AI growth to be inclusive, it is necessary to close the digital divide, invest in education and training, implement appropriate labor policies, and maintain an open and predictable business environment. In an optimistic scenario, where low- and middle-income economies reduce their digital divide by 50% , their revenues could increase by 15% and 14%, respectively.
The WTO suggests that greater participation in the Information Technology Agreement and updates to the General Agreement on Trade in Services could make AI more accessible and affordable for all.
The report was launched during the opening day of the WTO Public Forum, where Okonjo-Iweala noted that the new report came “amid the worst disruptions to the global trading system in 80 years, ” and while there are several headwinds, she said the potential of AI is one of the current silver linings.
“The continued political backlash against trade has much to do with the insufficient investment in education, training, retraining, and social safety nets over the past three or four decades of globalization. We cannot afford to repeat this mistake with AI,” he concluded.
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