Under a tariff environment and a global economic reconfiguration, the Mexican Institute of Finance Executives (IMEF) has improved its growth forecast for the Mexican economy, increasing it from 0.1% to 0.4% for 2025.
After making no changes for three consecutive months, the agency indicated that inflation will remain at 4% at the end of the year , unchanged from its previous estimates.
It’s worth remembering that inflation has been declining for two consecutive months. Last July alone, the National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) stood at 3.51% annually, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) .
IMEF projections predict that the exchange rate will close the year at 19.70 pesos per dollar, lower than the estimate last July of 20.10 pesos per dollar.
Meanwhile, by 2026, the exchange rate would drop from 20.75 to 20.40 pesos per dollar, the agency’s analysis stated.
Another variable with a positive outlook was the expectation of the traditional public balance as a proportion of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for this year, considering a slight decrease of 3.9% in August; for next year, it stood at 3.5%.
Meanwhile, the Bank of Mexico’s (Banxico) monetary policy rate estimate anticipates it will be 7.25 percent in 2025, while the following year it will be 6.75 percent.
The Mexican economy’s growth estimates from the Mexican Ministry of Economy and Finance (IMEF) are in line with other projections, such as those of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) , which predicted a 0.2% increase in national GDP.
In its World Economic Outlook (WEO) update , the IMF indicated that Mexican GDP would also show positive signs for 2026, with a projected growth of 1.4% , despite the uncertainty arising from tariffs, driven by the United States.
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