The potential implementation of a 20.91% tariff on Mexican tomatoes by the United States on July 14 would cause a 25% drop in tomato exports to the United States, according to data from the Agricultural Markets Consulting Group (GCMA) .
Given this scenario, Alfredo Careaga , Director of Business Development at THB Mexico , believes that this is not a minor issue, although the spotlight will be on other tariff issues such as those applied to steel and aluminum, and the automotive industry.
The specialist pointed out that the tax that the United States seeks to impose on tomatoes, arguing that Mexican producers are dumping (exporting products at a lower price than they are sold in the domestic market), would cause an 11% increase for American consumers , who would have to pay since this fruit is used in various preparations.
“The US consumer isn’t going to stop buying tomatoes. They’re used in many things, such as ketchup and pizza sauce, pasta, and salads, making them a staple product,” Careaga said in an interview with T21 .
Mexico has a significant tomato production capacity, which is the country’s second-largest agricultural export, behind only avocados. The United States is the main destination for this Mexican fruit.
In 2024 alone, tomato exports totaled 1.88 million tons, worth two billion 370 million dollars (mdd) , of which 98% were sent to the northern neighbor, that is, 1.87 million tons , according to the General Directorate of the Agri-Food and Fisheries Information Service (DGSIAP) , of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (Sader) .
“Tomato producers have two options: send the full amount and see how the U.S. market behaves to see if it’s actually consumed, or reduce their export capacity, the quantity, the amount of tomatoes they export, and sell them locally, which could help to some extent with inflationary pressures here in Mexico,” he explained.
Tomatoes are one of the products that have contributed to the rise in inflation in the first months of 2025. Last April alone, this fruit saw a 22.08% increase in price, and in May it registered a 10.03% increase , according to figures from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) .
The executive estimated that the same thing will likely happen with tomatoes as with other tariffs imposed by the United States. It has been observed that wholesalers in that country “ordered a year’s supply of the goods they needed to import them before the tariffs were imposed, and at least that way they would have supplies for a long time, while they saw how this issue would work.”
However, he indicated that it is important to understand that the tomatoes Mexico exports are typically for the winter months, and what they need in the summer can be produced locally in the United States.
“I understand that Florida is one of the states that primarily produces tomatoes in the United States, and it’s also where a lot of the pressure to lift this 1996 “Tomato Suspension Agreement between Mexico and the United States” comes from . So, the dynamic will be interesting, because they’re going to have to buy tomatoes in the summer that they’re going to use in the winter. In the end, tomatoes are a perishable good, and how they’re going to be stored would have to be considered,” he explained.
Careaga explained that since 1996, Mexican tomato exports to the United States have been regulated by the suspension agreement, a mechanism that ended an investigation into alleged dumping and allowed for the generation of guaranteed minimum prices .
It is worth remembering that Florida producers have accused their Mexican counterparts of unfair competition, which is why the United States Department of Commerce announced on April 14 the termination of the agreement reached in 2019 with Mexican tomato producers that allowed the entry of this product from Mexico to the United States, for which it would apply a compensatory quota of 20.91% that would come into effect on July 14 .
Mexican tomato, no substitute in the US
According to the GCMA, with more than 3.6 million tons annually, Mexico is the world’s eighth-largest tomato producer, and “the possible imposition of a tariff would not only distort the rules of bilateral trade, but would also contravene the principles of openness and cooperation stipulated in the Agreement between Mexico, the United States and Canada (T-MEC) , as well as the framework of the World Trade Organization (WTO) . “
In response to the potential tariff measure, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum insisted that the suspension agreement must be ratified, since Mexican tomatoes have no substitute in the U.S. market due to the quality and quantity shipped to Mexico’s northern neighbor.
“There has been a lot of work done with the United States government, and tomato growers’ associations from different parts of the country, particularly Sinaloa, have been in contact,” he said at the morning press conference on July 10.
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