There is an optimistic outlook on the economic scene both in the global and US productive sectors, and in the financial and macro-financial aspects, although there are major challenges such as the geopolitical reconfiguration and the tariff measures promoted by the northern neighbor, according to Sergio Kurczyn , director of Economic Studies at Banamex , who estimated that Mexico is in a period of stagnation.
The specialist specified that tariffs are a bad measure for the global economy, the U.S. economy, and Mexico. “We estimate that Mexico has imposed some tariffs , but particularly on anything that doesn’t respect the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) .”
He explained that the Mexican economy has been stagnant for two years due to very high interest rates and the previous administration’s “overreach” in fiscal matters and excessive spending.
“It’s internal uncertainty, it’s the elections, and a rather worrying deterioration of the checks and balances in Mexico, with judicial reform and elections for judges, which is a structural factor. The truth is, this prevents us from being more optimistic about the Mexican economy in the long term, because legal certainty and the certainty of the rules of the game are very important, and you can’t see it overnight. That’s going to continue to be negative,” he stated during the Banamex Dialogues event .
What does the global outlook look like?
Regarding the global outlook, Sergio Kurczyn noted that on the financial front, “things are going quite well, with a lot of nervousness in the financial markets, but beyond the risks, if you look at the stock markets, the American one in particular has done well so far this year, but also others like the European one.”
Interest rates have been declining in recent quarters , across the globe in general, the specialist estimated, adding that in terms of productive activity, the global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) tends to grow by around 3% and was close to this goal in 2024, although he anticipated a slowdown to 2.3% this year.
“In the central scenario, that is, in productive activity, we have been seeing a slowdown in the global economy for several months now, and in particular a slowdown in production in the American economy, which is very important for Mexico and also helps explain the outlook for slowdown or stagnation we see for the country’s economy,” he emphasized.
He asserted that these figures “are good numbers” and emphasized that “there are financial conditions for growth today.”
Despite this, he considered that there is nervousness due to current and structural factors such as Donald Trump ‘s presidency and the changes and executive orders he has signed, which have contributed to the inflation caused by tariffs.
U.S. interest rates affect Mexican interest rates, especially medium- and long-term interest rates, although short-term interest rates in the country depend on what the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) does in the coming months.
Among the geopolitical issues that affect the global economy, energy is almost always a factor, as was the case in Ukraine with the price of gas, he added.
“We believe that commodities will remain there, so the geopolitical issue becomes a risk, but not in the sense that it will affect oil supply in the central scenario. We already have the price of oil for us, which will be five dollars lower in 2025 compared to 2024, or even another five dollars in 2026. We no longer see anything affecting the global economy in terms of oil prices,” he added.
For the specialist, the configuration of globalization and the deglobalizationthat is being promoted is changing, which is negative for the world, particularly for the United States, and also for countries like Mexico that are heavily dependent on the external sector.
He said that the tariffs imposed by the United States are the highest in 100 years, since after “Liberation Day,” named by Trump, on April 2, they rose to 25% after having reached 2.5% in 2024, although the US president later backtracked, so he estimated that they are at approximately 13%, however, he estimated that they could go lower.
“We estimate they’re around 13%, which is hard to keep track of exactly, a lot, 13% versus 2.5%, but it already sounds reassuring compared to 25%. We think they’ll end up around 10%, with a lot of gaps here and there, and many exceptions,” he shared.
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