Private consumption has fallen during a slowdown caused by the upward trend in inflation in Mexico, which reached 4.42% last May compared to the previous year, and by changes in U.S. trade policy, which has heightened uncertainty when deciding on the purchase of goods and services.
In this context, the Timely Indicator of Private Consumption (IOCP)anticipated a decrease in consumption of 0.8% at an annual rate for April 2025, as well as 0.5% annually for May, according to figures from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) .
Meanwhile, in its monthly variation, the IOCP forecast a 0.1% increase in the fourth month of the year, while no growth was recorded for May.
The outlook for a slowdown in various industries and an increasing inflationary environment have affected consumer confidence, who have changed some of their habits by seeking more affordable and convenient options for their pockets, even cutting back on entertainment expenses outside the home, according to the consulting firm Kantar .
On June 11, the World Bank (WB) lowered its economic growth forecast for Mexico for 2025, from 1.3% to just 0.2% , as a result of rising trade tensions and greater global uncertainty stemming from political conditions that have worsened the global economy, which has also worsened consumption.
For its part, the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) also lowered its economic growth forecast for the country from 0.6% to 0.1% for 2025.
The central bank estimated that one of the reasons for this projection is the slowdown of the Mexican economy, resulting from various factors, including the threat of US tariffs.
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