The uncertain environment generated by the United States tariffs has undermined the confidence of Mexican businesspeople in their investment decisions, according to the Global Indicator of Business Opinion Confidence (IGOEC) , which stood at 48.7 points last May , representing a drop of 5.9 units in its annual comparison, the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) announced on Monday .
According to figures obtained from the Monthly Business Opinion Survey (EMOE) , this weighting also represented an increase of 0.1 points compared to April 2025.
With this latest observation, the indicator has now been below the 50-point threshold for three consecutive months .
The organization detailed that, in the fifth month of the year, the Business Confidence Indicator (ICE) for manufacturing industries was 49.5 points, which was 1.2 points higher than last April. The monthly variation in the indicator resulted from increases in four of its five components; the only one that showed a decrease was the country’s current economic situation, which fell by 0.1 points.
The Construction ICE index was 46.4 points, a 0.3-point decrease compared to the previous month. The component that saw the greatest decrease was the current economic situation of the company , which fell 2.3 points.
Last May, the ICE trade index fell 0.5 points compared to the previous month, reaching 46.8 points. Three of the five components of this indicator reported decreases, with the country’s future economic situation showing the greatest decline, at 1.4 points.
In the reference month, the ICE for private non-financial services fell 0.1 points compared to April 2025, reaching 49.7 points. The current economic situation of the company was the component that most concerned business owners, with a drop of 1.2 points.
Due to a slowdown in the Mexican economy, resulting from various factors, including the threat of tariffs being imposed by US President Donald Trump , the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) lowered its economic growth forecast for the country from 0.6% to 0.1% for 2025.
This forecast follows the World Bank’s (WB) forecast , which had already lowered its growth expectations for the Mexican economy from 1.5% to 0% for this year, due to “a complicated external environment.”
Furthermore, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) also estimated a 0.3% contraction in Mexico’s GDP, which could lead to a recession in the country by 2025.
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