Due to a slowdown in the Mexican economy, resulting from various factors, including the threat of tariffs being imposed by US President Donald Trump , the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) lowered its economic growth forecast for the country from 0.6% to 0.1% for 2025.
According to its Quarterly Report , for the period January-March of this year, the central bank also lowered its estimate for 2026, from 1.8% to 0.9 percent .
“In addition to the weakness it has been showing, there are significant challenges for the global economy from the change in trade policy in the United States. Since the previous report, the United States has imposed tariffs of varying magnitude on most of its imports, and the possibility of additional measures taking effect persists,” the organization noted in its analysis.
Banxico indicated that a limited effect is being incorporated, considering the resilience that Mexican exports have shown, according to the most recent reports.
According to the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) , Mexican exports reached $54.296 billion in April 2025, a 5.8% increase compared to the same month in 2024.
“The complex international context has added significant uncertainty to the forecasts presented for national productive activity,” Banxico noted.
The report also highlighted that annual headline inflation fell from 4.51% to 3.72% between the fourth quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025, although in the first half of May of this year the National Consumer Price Index (INPC) stood at 4.22% at an annual rate, which represented an increase derived mainly from an increase in the cost of some products in the basic basket.
The Bank of Mexico reiterated that its 3% inflation target could be reached by the third quarter of 2026 .
In terms of employment, between 110,000 and 290,000 formal jobs are expected to be created in Mexico this year. By 2026, the government estimates the creation of between 270,000 and 470,000 jobs.
It’s worth remembering that, given the uncertainty generated by the United States’ tariff policy, the World Bank (WB) had already lowered its growth expectations for the Mexican economy from 1.5% to 0% for this year, due to “a complicated external environment.”
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also estimated a 0.3% contraction in Mexico’s GDP, which could lead to a recession in the country by 2025.
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