Although they have been paused for now, the threat of imposition of tariffs by the United States on Mexican products would have serious economic consequences for both Mexico and the industry and consumers of that country, warned Manuel Montoya , director of the Automotive Cluster of Nuevo Leon (Claut) .
This weekend saw moments of tension between the three North American trading partners (Mexico, the United States and Canada), after US President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Saturday, February 1, imposing 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian products.
Finally, this Monday, after a call between Claudia Sheinbaum, president of Mexico, and Donald Trump , an agreement was reached to postpone this decision for 30 days.
Given this situation, Montoya warned in an interview with T21 about the risks that possible tariffs on Mexican products would represent.
“Economically, it makes no sense for anyone, not even for them (the United States). It is not just a Mexican issue; the entire economy of North America would be affected,” he said.
Montoya explained that automotive production is deeply integrated between Mexico and the United States, so a tariff would not only make finished vehicles more expensive, but also the inputs that cross the border several times during their manufacture.
“To impose tariffs on Mexico today is like imposing them on California or Texas. Materials can cross up to four or five times in the production process. Imagine if you put tariffs on each one: it would be a disaster,” he warned.
He said that the price increase would directly affect consumers in the United States, since “if you raise the cost of inputs and cars produced in Mexico, those vehicles will arrive at dealerships with a 25% higher final price . Who is going to want to pay that?” questioned the Claut representative.
In the event of a trade war, Montoya said that Mexico could take strategic measures, although he ruled out generalized tariffs.
“It would make no sense for Mexico to respond with tariffs on all products, because that would be shooting ourselves in the foot,” he explained.
However, he noted that in the past, when the United States imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum, Mexico responded with tariffs targeting specific products.
“Similar measures could be implemented, targeting products that affect the United States more than us,” he suggested.
Nearshoring remains strong
Despite political uncertainty in the United States, Montoya is confident that the nearshoring phenomenon will not stop.
“It is not something that will happen in a single administration or in four years. The companies that have come to Mexico are thinking about the next 20, 30 or 40 years. Perhaps some investment decisions will be postponed momentarily, but the process will not stop,” he said.
Finally, he expressed confidence that there are actors within the US government who will try to prevent such measures.
“I am confident that these tariffs will not be implemented, because they make no economic sense for anyone. It is more a matter of gut decisions than a well-thought-out trade strategy,” he said.
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