According to the Timely Estimate of Quarterly Gross Domestic Product (EOPIBT) , published this Thursday by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) , the Mexican economy would have shown a contraction in the fourth quarter of 2024 (4Q24), its first fall since 2021, marked by a decline in agricultural and industrial activities.
According to seasonally adjusted figures, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fell 0.6% in the last quarter of last year, compared to the previous quarter. At an annual rate, the timely estimate showed an increase of 0.6 percent .
The Inegi report indicated that in the period October-December 2024, the GDP of primary activities , which include agriculture, mining and fishing, decreased 8.9% at a quarterly rate .
The secondary sector , which includes manufacturing and construction, showed a quarterly decline of 1.2% in the period in question. The GDP of the tertiary sector , which includes services such as trade, transport and communications, education and health, had a quarterly increase of 0.2% .
In 4Q24, at an annual rate, the timely estimate of GDP for tertiary activities increased by 2.2% , that of secondary activities fell by 1.7% and that of primary activities registered a decrease of 4.6 percent .
“The Timely Estimate of the Quarterly Gross Domestic Product offers, in the short term, a vision of the evolution of the country’s economic activities,” said Inegi regarding this indicator, which registered its first fall since 2021 and after 12 consecutive quarters with a positive performance.
According to estimates by the World Bank (WB) , Mexico will have economic growth of just 1.5% for 2025 and 1.6% for the following year, limited by the application of a restrictive monetary policy and fiscal consolidation.
Other factors that could affect this growth are the uncertainty generated by the protectionist trade policy that the President of the United States, Donald Trump , is seeking to implement, with the imposition of 25% tariffs on products from his southern neighbor.
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