In April 2024, the Mexican economy showed signs of weakness, according to data from the Timely Indicator of Economic Activity (IOAE) from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) and sales reported by the National Association of Supermarkets and Department Stores (ANTAD).
The IOAE, which provides an advanced estimate of the Global Indicator of Economic Activity (IGAE), forecasted a monthly growth of just 0.1% for April. On an annual basis, a 1.7% increase in economic activity is expected.
Regarding specific sectors, secondary activities, including industry, would record an annual growth of 1.6%, while tertiary activities, comprising services, would increase by 2.2 percent.
On the other hand, comparable sales of ANTAD affiliates, which consider those stores with more than one year of operation, showed a nominal increase of only 0.6% in April of this year.
This is the weakest performance since the 1.5% decline recorded in February 2021. In terms of total sales, including stores opened in the last 12 months, there was a growth of 3.5% compared to the same month of the previous year, reaching 489.1 billion pesos.
These indicators reflect a mixed economic outlook, with very modest economic growth and weak performance in the retail sector. The data suggests that, while some sectors like services show greater dynamism, the economy as a whole faces significant challenges.
In that sense, according to Monex, the IOAE from INEGI reflects a concerning economic outlook, due to projections of a monthly growth of just 0.1% in April.
Furthermore, Monex warned that both secondary and tertiary activities could face additional pressures, which could result in a possible economic stagnation in April.
Specifically, the industrial sector expects a monthly growth of 0.6%, while the manufacturing and construction sector stands out for its positive performance amid a mixed economic environment.
This adds to expectations of moderate growth in the services sector, which continues its downward trend.
Amidst this mixed economic landscape, the next update of key indicators is expected to provide a more detailed insight into the direction the Mexican economy could take. These data will not only be crucial for better understanding the current context but will also guide business and governmental decisions in the short term.
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