The outlook for global trade in 2025 is uncertain due to the escalation of tariffs around the world, the World Trade Organization (WTO) said . It lowered its expectations for growth in merchandise trade volume by almost three percentage points, and now expects a 0.2% contraction this year.
In its 2025 Annual Report , which analyzes the work carried out in 2024 and early 2025, the multilateral organization indicated that although trade has proven resilient in recent months, risks abound due to geopolitical criteria, which harm global economic growth.
“Low-income economies will suffer the greatest welfare losses,” stressed WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala.
The report highlighted that the most-favored-nation principle underpins approximately 74% of global merchandise trade, which is a positive step in the face of the continued push for tariffs.
Regarding agriculture, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala recalled that no significant progress had been made either before or during the 13th Ministerial Conference (MC13) , held in Abu Dhabi between February and March 2024, which, she said, was one of the most important events of last year.
According to the report, services trade increased by 9% in value in 2024, reflecting growth in 2023. “All sectors contributed to this increase, including transport (8%), travel (13%), goods-related services (5%), and other commercial services (8%).”
He also highlighted that merchandise exports from developing economies increased from $7.7 trillion in 2020 to $11.3 trillion in 2022.
“The share of least developed countries (LDCs) in world trade has almost doubled over the past 30 years, rising from 0.59% in 1995 to 1.17% in 2023,” he noted.
Given the current economic environment, the WTO Director-General emphasized that “the global trading system is currently experiencing its worst disruptions since the Second World War,” and stressed that “global trade is much more than tariffs, and so is the WTO.”
Among the activities carried out by the WTO, the launch of the Young Business Leaders Program was highlighted, bringing this segment of the population closer to the work carried out by the organization, selecting eight young leaders for the one-year program.
Meanwhile, the WTO website attracted a record of more than 4.4 million monthly visits in 2024, surpassing the previous high of 3.5 million in 2023.
During MC13, 10 multilaterally agreed decisions and declarations were adopted, covering development, dispute settlement reform, and other areas.
The Director-General, in her capacity as Chair of the Trade Negotiations Committee, urged WTO members to adopt a renewed approach to advancing the body’s negotiations, emphasizing commitment, flexibility, and participation.
The report, divided into four chapters, covers other activities carried out by the WTO. It also recalled that 30 years ago, the Uruguay Round agreements transformed the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade into the WTO.
“Since their inception, open and predictable international markets, anchored in WTO rules, have contributed significantly to strengthening the global economy,” he said.
The WTO’s annual report highlights the work carried out by the organization before and after the tariff measures imposed by the United States, which have generated a context of uncertainty and affected various economies around the world.
“The WTO has an important role to play as a forum where our 166 members can share their trade concerns and propose solutions,” the document emphasized.
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