In the second half of the year, global merchandise trade could slow down, following the rebound shown in the first half of 2025 (2H25), which stemmed from advance purchases before the tariff increase and from the increase in demand for products related to Artificial Intelligence (AI), according to the latest Goods Trade Barometer , published by the World Trade Organization (WTO) .
This indicator, which provides real-time information on the trajectory of merchandise trade in relation to recent trends, fell to 101.8 points in September, compared to 102.2 in June and below the quarterly trade volume index.
According to the WTO, barometer values above 100 show an upward trend, while values below 100 suggest that merchandise trade has fallen below trend or will do so in the near future.
The agency indicated that all the indices that make up the barometer are above their common base value of 100, except for the agricultural commodities index , which stood at 98.
The indices related to air transport (102.7) and container transport (101.7) continue to show expansion, although at a slower pace than a few months ago, the WTO analysis detailed.
Meanwhile, the automotive products index , at 103 points, has stabilized above trend, while the electronic components index , at 102 points, showed an increase above trend in 2025.
The new export orders index stood at 102.3 points, exceeding the base value of 100 in the second quarter, following some volatility in late 2024 and early 2025. “Overall, the indices show signs of moderation in the growth of world trade.”
According to the WTO’s most recent forecasts, merchandise trade is estimated to grow by 2.4% in 2025 and 0.5% in 2026 , reflecting rising tariffs and persistent uncertainty surrounding trade policy in the second half of 2025 and into the coming year
“Merchandise trade in the first half of 2025 registered higher-than-expected growth (4.9% year-on-year), but increased tariffs and persistent uncertainty surrounding trade policies are expected to weigh on growth in the second half,” the report said.
It’s worth remembering that US President Donald Trump has initiated a trade war with several countries. Meanwhile, these protectionist measures continue to generate uncertainty for investors and global trade.
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