At the start of 2025, global merchandise trade rebounded due to advance purchases before the increase in tariffs in the first quarter of 2025, however, this expansion could slow and be short-lived due to the trade uncertainty that persists in the world, revealed the Barometer of Trade in Goods , published by the World Trade Organization (WTO) .
The indicator, which provides real-time information on the trajectory of merchandise trade in relation to recent trends, stood at 103.5 points , i.e., above the quarterly trade volume index, registering slight changes compared to the figure of 102.8 in March.
According to the WTO, barometer values above 100 indicate an upward trend, while values below 100 suggest that merchandise trade has fallen below trend or will do so in the near future.
The agency indicated that the decline in export orders and the temporary nature of the anticipated concentration suggest a slowdown in trade in the coming months as companies import less and begin to reduce accumulated inventories.
The recent WTO report noted that the new export orders index , which stood at 97.9 points, showed a decline below its base value of 100, “entering a contraction zone.”
On the other hand, most of the other components of the barometer have bucked the trend. The air transport index , with 104.3 points, and the container index , with 107.1 points, reflect increased freight movement.
The automotive products index at 105.3 points is also above trend, due to resilient vehicle production and sales.
The electronic components index , with 102 units, also bucked the trend after underperforming in 2023 and 2024, and the raw materials index, with 100.8 points, showed modest growth, albeit above its base value.
According to the WTO’s latest forecast, global merchandise trade volume growth moderated in the fourth quarter of 2024, but is likely to rebound in the first quarter of 2025 to 2.7% under a low-tariff scenario reflecting policy conditions at the beginning of the year, and a contraction of 0.2% under the policies in place in mid-April.
“Subsequent developments, including the US-China and US-UK trade agreements, as well as increased tariffs on steel and aluminum, have slightly revised the forecast, leaving the overall outlook essentially unchanged at 0.1%,” the report said.
However, the WTO considered that a trade contraction is possible if reciprocal tariffs with the United States are reinstated or if uncertainty about trade policy spreads globally.
It’s worth remembering that US President Donald Trump has launched a tariff war with several countries. Meanwhile, protectionist measures continue to generate uncertainty for investors and global trade.
Comment and follow us on X: @GrupoT21
