Once it recovers from the sharp increase in uncertainty regarding trade policies and companies adapt to the new trading environment, the Mexican economy could expand by 1.3% in 2026 , the World Bank (WB) projected , which would mean a downward forecast compared to a previous estimate by the multilateral organization that pointed to a growth of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 1.4 percent.
According to the World Bank’s World Economic Outlook report , Mexico’s GDP would grow by 1.8% in 2027.
The projections for Mexico occur in a context where the review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is on the horizon , as well as constant changes in global trade policy, derived from US tariffs.
Meanwhile, growth in Latin America and the Caribbean is expected to rise slightly to 2.3% in 2026 , “as trade tensions and the uncertainty they entail remain high and domestic demand remains low in some countries, which will partially offset the positive effect of the easing of financial conditions.”
According to the World Bank document, regional growth will consolidate at 2.6% in 2027, as trade flows recover and domestic demand improves.
For the Caribbean, the World Bank estimated that GDP will increase to 5.2% in 2026 and 6.6% in 2027 , driven by Guyana’s current oil boom. “Excluding Guyana, the subregion is projected to grow by around 2.9% and 3.7%, thanks to tourism and related services,” it stated.
In Central America, economic growth is projected to remain generally stable at 3.6% in 2026 and 3.7% in 2027. “According to projections, remittance flows will decline, negatively impacting economic activity. On the positive side, the subregion is expected to continue benefiting from resilient exports and growth in the United States.”
Regarding the US economy, the organization predicted growth of 2.2% for this year and 1.9% for 2027 .
In Europe and Central Asia, growth is projected to remain stable at 2.4% in 2026 before rising to 2.7% next year. According to the World Bank, GDP in East Asia and the Pacific will slow to 4.4% in 2026 and 4.3% in 2027. Meanwhile, South Asia is expected to grow by 6.2% this year and then potentially recover to 6.5% in 2027.
According to the analysis, global growth is estimated to remain stable over the next two years, with a slight drop to 2.6% in 2026 before increasing to 2.7% next year.
“The global economy is proving to be more resilient than anticipated, despite persistent trade tensions and policy uncertainty,” the report highlighted.
According to the World Bank, the easing of global financial conditions and fiscal expansion in several large economies should help cushion the slowdown.
“To avoid stagnation and unemployment, governments in emerging and advanced economies must vigorously liberalize private investment and trade, curb public consumption, and invest in new technologies and education,” stressed Indermit Gill, chief economist and senior vice president for Development Economics at the World Bank Group.
Mexico, which maintains close economic ties with the United States, is particularly vulnerable to new tariff increases , which could worsen if there were more trade restrictions stemming from the negotiation of the USMCA, which Donald Trump, the president of the United States, has long scorned.
Just last January 13, the White House occupant declared that the USMCA was “irrelevant” and insisted that the United States does not need vehicles made in the country, to which the president of Mexico, Claudia Sheinbaum, ruled out entering into debate in the morning conference this Wednesday, since both economies are very integrated .
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