The uncertainty generated by the threat of the imposition of tariffs on Mexico by the United States remains latent, especially as April 2 approaches, the date on which Donald Trump , president of our northern neighbor, intends to resume the 25% tax that he paused on March 6 on products that are included in the Treaty between Mexico, the United States and Canada (T-MEC) .
In this context, Alfredo Careaga , Director of Business Development at THB Mexico , estimated that there could be another postponement, since Trump has realized the inflationary and consumer impact that the implementation of this protectionist measure would bring.
“It’s an issue that’s changing so much and so quickly week by week. My expectation is that there will be another postponement, but it may or may not happen; it’s a complete toss-up,” Careaga said in an interview with T21 .
The specialist specified that the tariff measure and the confusion it has caused are part of the US president’s negotiating strategy to try to gain an advantage, and noted that Trump’s stance toward Mexico could be a bit “softer,” given that President Claudia Sheinbaum ‘s administration has cooperated with the US government on security issues.
On February 27, the Attorney General’s Office (FGR) and the Secretariat of Security and Citizen Protection (SSPC) reported that 29 individuals held in various Mexican prisons were transferred to the United States. They were wanted by the Mexican government for their ties to criminal organizations related to drug trafficking and other crimes. Among those transferred was Rafael Caro Quintero, one of the country’s largest drug lords.
It’s worth remembering that one of the commitments Mexico made, which led to the suspension of the 25% tariff on various Mexican products on February 3, was to send 10,000 National Guard troops to the northern border to halt illegal migration and drug trafficking to its northern neighbor.
As part of those efforts, U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem will visit Mexico next Friday to meet with Sheinbaum, part of a working tour of Latin America by the U.S. official.
Regarding the 25% tariffs on global steel and aluminum imports from the United States, which went into effect on March 12, Alfredo Careaga emphasized that this issue affects both countries, and “if Mexico responds, it seems to me that the impact would be somewhat less, so to speak; we’d have to see which products they choose to attack, which are basically the products that traditionally Republican states target, like whiskey and others.”
According to the Mexican Institute for Competitiveness (IMCO) , the collection of tariffs on these products by the Donald Trump government would affect 4.7% of total Mexican exports, in addition to impacting the value of what the United States imports from Mexico, estimated at more than 22.5 billion dollars (mdd ), and would cause severe consequences for the national automotive industry.
Although Trump has stated that he does not want vehicles manufactured in Mexico and Canada, and has announced that he has major plans to have automakers move their production to the United States, the United States remains the main buyer of cars manufactured in Mexico.
“I don’t want cars from Canada. I don’t want cars from Mexico. I want car companies to build here,” the US president asserted.
According to the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) , the export of light vehicles manufactured in Mexico during the first two months of 2025 was 478,366 units , and the United States was its main destination, with 84.2% reaching 402,986 units ; Canada followed with 41,804 cars , which represented 8.7% of car shipments abroad.
Regarding the reciprocal tariffs , which are scheduled for April 2, and whose scope the US president himself has reduced by applying them to specific products and removing them from some sectors, including automotive and semiconductors, Careaga mentioned that Trump sees this tax “as a win-win situation for the other country I impose the tariff on, and a loss for the other country. The reality is that’s not true, since both countries lose.”
Given this string of tariffs imposed by the United States, the specialist noted that a preliminary meeting is already underway regarding the USMCA review, because, although it is scheduled for 2026, “it seems to me that both parties already know what they want and how.”
Due to the uncertainty generated by the tariff war, projections from Fitch Ratings and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) have estimated that Mexico would enter a recession due to the 25% tariff on various Mexican products that Trump is seeking to impose.
“It looks complicated, especially because it’s not just about whether or not the tariff will be implemented; the mere uncertainty surrounding the implementation of the tariffs clearly affects foreign investment and production. Investors are seeing the outlook and are starting to become more conservative, and that impacts the economy, even without the tariffs,” Careaga concluded.
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