Within the framework of the event of The 100+ Influencers of transportation and logistics in Mexico 2025 , organized by Grupo T21 , the economist and analyst, Raúl Feliz, presented an analysis on the global economic situation , highlighting the growing uncertainty generated by the trade policy of Donald Trump, president of the United States, and its possible effects on Mexico and the world.
During the keynote address, entitled What economic challenges lie ahead for 2025? , Raúl Feliz warned that the Mexican economy faces a scenario of slowdown and even recession in 2025, with an estimated growth of 0.7% and a modest rebound to 1.8% in 2026. This is largely due to the threat of 25% tariffs that Trump has raised upon his return to the presidency of the United States.
“If we were to maintain a 25% tariff for five, seven or 10 months, the Mexican economy would lose, and this is an optimistic estimate, up to two points of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It could lose between two and four points,” said Feliz.
The specialist’s analysis not only focused on Mexico , but also on the US economy . According to Feliz, although the United States has had three consecutive years of growth close to 3%, it is now facing a slowdown that he considers natural and projects lower growth for 2025, around 2.2 percent.
According to the speaker, the markets have reacted negatively to Trump’s protectionist policies. The US stock market has registered sharp declines.
Technology companies have also suffered, with shares like Nvidia falling 23% and Tesla falling nearly 30%.
Feliz also pointed out that the US market itself is already sending clear signals of concern. He explained that if inflation increases, the US Federal Reserve will have no room to reduce interest rates.
He said that although various adjustments were implemented during Trump’s first administration to deal with economic pressures, this time the scenario is more limited, which would make it difficult to apply disruptive measures.
Mexico and Trump’s tariffs
The possible imposition of a 25% tariff on Mexican products by the United States represents a direct blow to key sectors, such as manufacturing and auto exports. Currently, Mexico is the United States’ main trading partner , but that position puts it in the crosshairs of Trump’s protectionist policy, according to Feliz’s explanation.
One of the most affected sectors would be the automotive industry . Feliz cited the case of the General Motors Silverado pickup , of which 31% is manufactured in Mexico, 20% in Canada and 49% in the United States.
“If you put tariffs on Silverado exports from Mexico or Canada, not only on the final product, but also on intermediate inputs, the positive cash flow that General Motors has on a Silverado becomes negative,” Feliz explained.
He also criticized Trump’s decision-making logic , saying a lack of understanding of supply chains could lead the United States into a self-inflicted crisis.
“That is the political game, but this game of not understanding how supply chains are linked is what can generate a recession in the United States,” he said.
What to expect in 2025?
Despite the adverse outlook, Feliz pointed out some factors that could mitigate the crisis. Among them, the expectation that the United States Federal Reserve will reduce its interest rates , which would allow the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to do the same and relieve economic pressure.
He also said that the markets have shown that Trump does not have unlimited room for manoeuvre . The collapse of the stock markets and the resistance of key sectors in the United States could force him to soften his stance in the coming months.
Feliz said the recent market declines show that Trump is not immune to the consequences of his policies.
He stressed that in this scenario, he is likely to seek to implement measures to reverse the trend, stabilise the economy and prevent a rise in inflation. However, “his room for action is limited” and, although he intends to continue with the “trade war”, doing so would be a risky decision that could turn out to be a strategic error.
Meanwhile, uncertainty remains in the air. The key date will be April 2 , when the Trump administration will announce the final list of structural tariffs. The specialist explained that Mexico and global trade are cautiously awaiting the next moves of the American president.
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