In a context marked by the review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) , scheduled for 2026, Tijuana, Baja California, is preparing for a stage of adjustment and modernization, with a clear focus on resilience and strengthening supply chains
For the industrial sector of the border city, the review of the trade agreement is perceived as a natural evolution of the treaty, rather than a rupture or an eventual cancellation, since the productive integration between the three partner countries has proven to work, especially in strategic sectors of the region such as advanced manufacturing, medical devices and the electronics and automotive industries .
According to an analysis by CETYS University , in the Cali-Baja region, trade under the USMCA generates around 95,000 jobs in key sectors such as manufacturing and automotive, reflecting the high level of integration of supply chains and their competitiveness compared to other economic blocs.
“What we have been hearing from our peers , who maintain a constant dialogue in Washington, is precisely that: adjustment and modernization. These are the concepts that are being put on the table,” highlighted Adriana Eguía, president of Tijuana Economic and Industrial Development (Deitac) .
In the upcoming review of the USMCA, the dialogues are expected to be more technical and pragmatic, with an emphasis on issues such as rules of origin, regional competitiveness and supply chains, particularly in assessing their resilience and integration within North America.
In that regard, Eguía shared his recent visit to the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas, Nevada, where representatives from the robotics and medical device industries expressed the need for more robust regional integration to address the shortage of components, semiconductors, and other critical inputs.
From a logistical perspective, this means more efficient flows, less congestion at customs crossings like Otay Mesa, and a greater capacity to handle high-value volumes—such as electronic components and medical devices—with less latency.
The president of Deitac indicated that, in a hypothetical scenario of a USMCA break-up, a bilateral negotiation process would open between Mexico and the United States to establish a new trade framework.
Reconfiguration in the face of the tariff environment
Despite the tariffs imposed by the United States, there is no widespread contraction in industrial activity, but rather a strategic reconfiguration . Companies in the region are optimizing their regional supply chains, reviewing tariff classifications, and strengthening their compliance processes to align with the USMCA’s rules of origin.
This approach has accelerated trends such as nearshoring (relocation of production lines), with the arrival of European and Asian companies integrating into US operations, taking advantage of Tijuana’s specialized talent and its already consolidated export experience
In November 2025 alone, Tijuana’s exports reached 3.836 billion dollars (USD), while imports totaled 2.498 billion USD, generating a trade surplus of 1.338 billion USD, according to data from DataMéxico , of the Ministry of Economy .
Eguía highlighted that the year began with requests from various companies from the United States, Asia and Europe, which are preparing to operate under clearer USMCA rules.
“The imposition of tariffs has not generated a widespread contraction. What we see are temporary adjustments in some sectors and growth in others,” he emphasized.
He explained that the electronics industry maintains solid growth , while the furniture sector has experienced a contraction, influenced by both the global economic slowdown and the reduction in consumption following the COVID-19 pandemic.
Sufficient Industrial Spaces
The president of Deitac stated that Tijuana currently has sufficient industrial spaces to attract investment in various submarkets
The city’s industrial real estate market remains active, as although some companies have postponed expansion decisions in the short term, there are new projects and relocation processes that compensate for these changes.
The industries that dominate the occupancy of industrial spaces are electronics, aerospace, and medical devices . In contrast, the logistics sector has shown less activity, resulting from operational adjustments.
“What we’re seeing in the logistics industry is that they had a large footprint in terms of leased space. They’re not withdrawing, but rather optimizing and reducing their footprint to operate more efficiently and meet existing contracts,” he explained.
According to Newmark , a global real estate services firm, significant industrial transactions were recorded in the region during the third quarter of 2025, including 50,044 square meters (m²) in Otay, 31,634 m² in El Florido and an additional 19,510 m² in the same submarket, reflecting a sustained demand for spaces intended for logistics and manufacturing.
With a positive close in the fourth quarter of 2025, the beginning of 2026 shows greater industrial dynamism in Tijuana . Adriana Eguía anticipated a scenario of moderate but sustained growth, driven by advanced manufacturing, automation, and higher value-added production.
“Tijuana is consolidating itself as a strategic hub for Mexico, with operational capacity, qualified talent, and a highly competitive industrial ecosystem to face the challenges of the international environment,” he concluded.
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