Rising trade tensions and greater global uncertainty stemming from political conditions have worsened the global economy, which is facing significant challenges, the World Bank (WB) said , which in this context revised downwards its growth forecast for Mexico for 2025, from 1.3% to just 0.2 percent .
According to its Global Economic Outlook report, the international organization forecasts Mexican economic growth of 1.1% in 2026.
In the report, the World Bank indicated that this decrease will be due to the fact that exports to the United States, which represent 80% of total shipments of goods abroad, will be affected by the tariffs promoted by Donald Trump , President of the United States, amid persistent uncertainty regarding investment and trade policies.
“Additional trade restrictions under a revised United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) could further reduce Mexico’s exports,” the agency added.
According to the report, Mexico, the second-largest economy in Latin America and the Caribbean, has been the hardest hit by the 25% tariffs on non-USMCA imports to the United States.
“All other countries in the region face a 10% tariff on exports to the United States, excluding energy products,” he stressed.
Regarding its outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean , the World Bank estimated that its growth will remain stable “at 2.3% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026 as growth weakens in most economies, except for Argentina, Colombia, Ecuador and the Caribbean.”
The forecast implied a downward revision of the region’s growth by 0.2 percentage points , with more than half of the region’s economies set to register a downgrade relative to previous projections.
“Emerging market and developing economies have reaped the benefits of trade integration, but now find themselves on the front lines of a global trade conflict,” said M. Ayhan Kose, World Bank Deputy Chief Economist and Director of the Prospects Group.
Regarding global growth, he projected it will be just 2.3% in 2025, driven by rising tariffs and greater uncertainty for nearly all the world’s economies.
Given this scenario, the organization noted that the global economy will experience its weakest average growth since the 1960s in the 2020s.
“A global recession is not expected, but if the forecasts for the next two years materialize, average global growth in the first seven years of the 2020s will be the slowest of any decade since the 1960s,” the analysis emphasized.
The report also highlighted that rising trade tensions and regulatory uncertainty are expected to lead to global growth posting its slowest pace this year since 2008.
The World Bank’s forecast for the largest economies is 1.2% this year and 1.4% by 2026.
In Europe and Central Asia, growth is expected to slow to 2.4% in 2025 before rising to 2.6% in 2026-2027. In the Middle East and North Africa , the World Bank projected growth to 2.7% in 2025 and strengthen to an average of 3.9% in 2026-2027.
Among other data, the organization projected that growth in East Asia and the Pacific will slow to 4.5% in 2025 and 4% in 2026.
Given the current uncertain environment, the World Bank suggested that to accelerate economic growth, countries will need to improve the business climate and promote productive employment, equipping workers with the necessary skills and creating the conditions for labor markets to effectively adjust to employees and businesses.
“Global collaboration will be crucial to support the most vulnerable developing economies, including through multilateral interventions, concessional financing, and, for countries experiencing active conflict, emergency relief and support,” he stressed.
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