Mexico’s economic growth in 2025 was only 0.71%, however, in 2026 there could be an additional growth of 0.15% to reach 0.9% , driven by the World Cup, estimated Gabriela Siller , director of Economic Analysis at Grupo Financiero BASE .
In the webinar “Economic Outlook: GDP Estimate for the fourth quarter (4Q25)”, the analyst indicated that in a pessimistic scenario, GDP would be 0.6% by the end of this year , while in an optimistic projection it could be 1.4 percent.
The specialist explained that despite the challenges posed by tariffs and other issues, Mexico avoided a technical recession in 2025, although it did fall into what she called a “stagnation trap,” resulting from weakened institutions, increased informality, a drop in fixed investment, and a decline in productivity.
Regarding Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) , he warned that although the flow of foreign capital has reached historic levels, with 40,906 million dollars (USD) in the third quarter of 2025 (3Q25), an increase of 14.46% compared to the same period in 2024, a record based on reinvestment of profits is not the same as one driven by new projects .
According to the analysis, new investments represented only 16.05% of FDI between January and September of last year, while in 2022 it was 45 percent.
Of the FDI in Q3 2025, the manufacturing sector was the main destination with 37.13%, and the manufacture of transport equipment was the most important subsector with 19.93% of the total FDI; meanwhile, the production of computer equipment was 6.35 percent.
Siller explained that 79.78% of FDI from the United States was reinvested profits, while only 11.86% was new investment. He indicated that Mexico can find greater market share in computer exports, a segment that grew by 89.25% in the January-November period of 2025.
However, the director of Economic Analysis at Grupo Financiero BASE said that Mexico does not have the plant capacity to produce more of these devices in order to continue advancing in this market.
He noted that the country was, for 20 consecutive months, the main supplier of computer equipment, “then Taiwan won, then Mexico regained market share, but in 2026 it is very likely that Mexico will remain in second place,” he said.
“With all this, Mexico is the United States’ main trading partner and the main supplier of U.S. imports, which is good news. However, this leads us to something that could be a cause for concern regarding the review of the USMCA. China remains the country with which the United States has the largest trade deficit, at $189 billion, but Mexico is very close, and this figure has been narrowing by 2025. In fact, in October the difference was around $15 billion,” he explained.
Regarding private consumption , Siller reported that this indicator showed a growth of 0.58% until October of last year, the lowest since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, when it registered a drop of 10.67 percent.
According to estimates from the financial institution, remittances are also expected to plummet by around 20% this year, due to an aggressive immigration policy and the deteriorating job market in the United States.
Regarding employment , Siller specified that 2025 marked a turning point for the Mexican labor market, showing a decline.
“We saw that in total employment, 1,057,970 jobs were created, of which 1,161,926 were informal jobs, which means that in formal employment, jobs were actually destroyed (-103,956). This is something that has only been seen in periods of recession in Mexico,” Siller pointed out, according to his shared graphs.
He pointed out that the above was generated by the economic stagnation, since there are not enough incentives, such as a good salary or better benefits, for companies to hire from the formal sector.
According to the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) , the informality rate rose from 54.27% in 2024 to 54.85% in 2025. “What does this mean? Well, it means that Mexico’s productivity fell, because the formal sector generated almost 75% of the total value of the economy, while the informal sector contributed 25%,” he emphasized.
Adding to this problem is the reduction in the number of employers , which totaled 1,029,280 last December. On an annual basis, this represents a drop of 25,667 employers, marking 18 consecutive months of decline.
USMCA Review
Regarding the USMCA, Siller stated that, according to various surveys conducted in the United States and in the US Congress itself, there is a trend indicating that they do want the trade agreement to continue, particularly Republicans, who are in favor of the USMCA.
He estimated that Canada would not withdraw from the treaty , although if that were to happen, it would not represent a concern for Mexico, “I think that this would even give it an opportunity to grow more, to obtain a greater market share.”
According to BASE estimates, Siller also ruled out the possibility of the United States withdrawing from the USMCA . “Furthermore, even if the United States were to withdraw from the trade agreement, trade between Mexico and the United States would not end.”
“What is very likely is that the review will become more of a renegotiation , but to the point that it won’t have to go through the United States Congress. They will want to make modifications to the rules of origin, the labor content, and the dispute resolution mechanism . Above all, we believe they will want to increase the rules of origin to 80%, and that there will be a transition period, just as there was from NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) to the USMCA, but now that transition period will include tariffs until companies are fully compliant,” he explained.
It is worth remembering that Marcelo Ebrard, head of the Ministry of Economy , and Jamieson Greer, United States Trade Representative (USTR) , held a meeting on January 28, in which they addressed a series of possible reforms to the trade agreement, including stricter rules of origin for key industrial goods.
