Mexican industry, particularly in key regions like Baja California, faces a complex outlook due to the imposition of tariffs and global economic uncertainty, although companies in the area are seeking to take advantage of their location to strengthen the logistics sector and exports to the United States.
José Luis Contreras Valenzuela , president of the Association of Industrialists of the Otay Mesa (AIMO) , who was reelected last February for the 2025-2027 period, said that the tariffs promoted by the United States have resulted in uncertainty that directly affects investment decisions .
The lack of clarity regarding trade policies has led companies to postpone projects and reevaluate strategies. This uncertainty not only hinders growth but also limits industries’ ability to plan for the long term.
The steel and aluminum sectors , and more recently, copper, have been particularly affected. Essential metal inputs for the production of finished goods have made industrial processes more expensive, the AIMO president noted in an interview with T21.
He explained that this has forced companies to seek alternatives, such as relocating production areas or exploring new markets to minimize the impact of additional costs.
According to a report by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) , tariffs imposed by the United States on Mexican products, such as steel and aluminum, with a 50% tax, have increased production costs by 10% to 15% for manufacturing industries in Mexico.
Windows of opportunity and diversification
Contreras emphasized that, in response to these challenges, businesses in Tijuana and throughout the state are seeking “windows of opportunity” within the framework of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) .
This includes diversifying and expanding markets and focusing on sectors less affected by tariffs; however, the lack of a government support program has limited these initiatives, he explained.
“The unfortunate thing here is that industrial activity is moving on the sidelines, because while it’s true that the federal government announces that it has a Plan A, Plan B, and Plan C, we ourselves don’t know anything more than what’s been announced in the media,” Contreras emphasized.
To mitigate some of the tariff impact, Baja California’s industrial sector is exploring niche markets in high-tech industries , such as medical devices, microprocessors, and robotics . These sectors represent growth opportunities. However, the AIMO president specified that the development of these areas requires a public policy environment that encourages investment.
The lack of a clear public policy and investment incentives represents a significant obstacle. Contreras believes that recent labor reforms, including the reduction of the working week from 48 to 40 hours, were designed without the consensus of the productive sector.
According to the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) , Baja California lost approximately 27,000 jobs in the industrial sector between April and June 2025, although a partial recovery has been observed. This figure was confirmed by José Luis Contreras.
Geographical location, an advantage
Despite the challenges, the private sector in Tijuana and the other municipalities that make up Baja California has shown resilience. Some companies have managed to diversify and expand their operations, especially in the logistics sector , taking advantage of the region’s strategic geographic location as a gateway to the U.S. market.
This competitive advantage, according to Contreras, is a key factor that no one can take away from the region, even in times of uncertainty.
However, the impact of tariffs is not limited to direct costs. The contraction in demand in the United States, the main market for Mexican products, has reduced the need for commodities , indirectly affecting local industries.
Another affected sector is agriculture , particularly tomato producers in San Quintín—a town known for its fishing and agricultural activities—who face tariffs that make their products more expensive in the U.S. market.
It’s worth remembering that on July 14, the United States government imposed a 17.09% tariff on Mexican tomato exports, arguing that it was protecting American producers and accusing Mexican producers of dumping —exporting products at a lower price than they are sold in their domestic market.
Contreras noted that while these costs are borne by U.S. consumers, tariff policies are harming the competitiveness of Mexican producers , which could have long-term repercussions for the sector.
The lack of an official public policy program to counter the effects of tariffs is a recurring concern, he emphasized, adding that this hampers companies’ strategic planning and reinforces the perception that the private sector must assume the responsibility for adaptation.
Despite these challenges, José Luis Contreras remains optimistic about the industrial sector’s ability to overcome these obstacles, provided trade policies are not over-extended and the USMCA agreements are respected.
The U.S. government’s 90-day extension of the 30% tariff on Mexico, while seen as an opportunity to prepare for a complex economic environment, also creates additional pressure, as it “does not offer long-term certainty.”
“We’ll see what new developments the U.S. government comes up with in 90 days. But what we do know is that without certainty, there is no investment, and without investment, no industry can sustain itself,” he noted.
The AIMO president emphasized the importance of certainty as a key factor in attracting and retaining investment, since in the context of political and economic uncertainty, capital seeks markets with greater stability and profitability.
Comment and follow us on X: @Eliseosfield / @GrupoT21
