As Mexico consolidates its role as a key trading partner in North America, a warning is coming from Washington that has the potential to profoundly alter the trucking sector , according to Juan Carlos Baker, CEO of Ansley Consultants and a professor at the Universidad Panamericana .
This is the formal investigation initiated by the United States Department of Commerce under Section 232 , a legal tool that allows for the imposition of trade measures if certain imports are deemed to threaten the national security of that country, Baker explained in an interview with T21.
“It’s not my interpretation ,” the specialist clarified, adding that this investigation is ongoing and that its focus is on transport vehicles , including heavy vehicles.
“If the U.S. Department of Commerce identifies a risk to the national security of the United States due to the importation of transportation vehicles, tractors, and so on. And that investigation is currently underway. I don’t really know when there will be a result; it’s possible it will come out later this year, maybe sooner,” Baker commented.
Although there’s no definitive date for the results, Baker explained that the precedent is worrying.
“In all the investigations that have been conducted under this concept, they have always concluded that there is a risk. And when there is a risk, they impose tariffs ,” he warned.
The rationale behind this tool is framed within a strategic vision of protection: if massive imports are perceived as a threat to key industries, such as defense, mobility, or medical supplies, the United States can apply tariffs or restrictions without having to go through multilateral bodies.
In this scenario, the consequences for Mexico could be felt immediately , especially for the trucking sector that exports heavy vehicles to the U.S. market.
“If there are indeed tariffs, the immediate effect is that it will make it more expensive to export vehicles to the United States,” Baker said. Although exception mechanisms or alternative routes could be explored, the direct impact on competitiveness is on the table.
But there’s something more worrying than the rising cost of trade: the signal it would send to investors.
“If tariffs are imposed, and especially if they remain in place for a long period, that could discourage investment,” Baker explained.
This way, companies that were considering establishing production plants in Mexico could opt for other destinations, precisely to avoid the risk of paying additional tariffs when entering the U.S. market.
Thus, a policy that seeks to protect U.S. industry could have collateral effects on the process of relocating companies to Mexico (called nearshoring ), which today presents itself as one of the country’s greatest opportunities.
For now, there’s no resolution or certainty about the outcome of the investigation. But Baker urged vigilance. “It’s a real possibility. We can’t assume it won’t happen.”
Baker’s warning is supported by official documents. The U.S. Department of Commerce confirmed, via the Federal Register of April 25, 2025 , that it has initiated a Section 232 investigation to assess whether imports of medium- and heavy-duty trucks and their components pose a risk to its national security.
This measure, which has already been applied in strategic sectors such as steel and pharmaceuticals, opens the possibility of imposing tariffs without having to resort to the World Trade Organization .
According to the Monthly Statistical Report of the Heavy Vehicle Automotive Industry in Mexico. Figures as of May 2025 from the National Association of Bus, Truck and Tractor-Trailer Producers (ANPACT) , Mexico exported 52,924 heavy vehicles to the United States between January and May 2025, representing a 13.4% drop compared to the 61,127 units shipped during the same period in 2024.
In May alone, exports totaled 12,152 units, a 23.3% increase compared to the 9,854 units sold in the same month last year.
Furthermore, according to the Administrative Registry of the Heavy Vehicle Automotive Industry (RAIAVP) published by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) , the annual total exported from Mexico in 2023 was 177,539 units, while in 2024 it fell to 159,466, a 10.2% annual drop.
Although the process is still ongoing and its outcome is uncertain , the sector cannot afford to look the other way. The warning has been given and the precedent is clear. Now it’s up to Mexico and the sector to be ready to react.
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