Global air cargo demand closed June 2025 with a slight year-over-year increase of 0.8% , reflecting market uncertainty amid the trade war triggered by U.S. tariff policy.
This has resulted in a significant decline in traffic to and from North America in recent months , the International Air Transport Association (IATA) reported .
The agency noted that the weakening of global trade, resulting from tariffs, has disrupted established air cargo flows , so airlines are adjusting to the new trade order by reallocating capacity on certain routes. Furthermore, the constant changes in the sector make supply chain planning or optimization difficult and increase the risk of a deeper cargo slowdown in the future.
“The June air cargo industry data makes it abundantly clear that stability and predictability are fundamental pillars of trade. The easing of uncertainty surrounding tariffs imposed by the Trump administration is increasing businesses’ confidence in their trade management. But we cannot ignore the fact that the ‘agreements’ being negotiated represent a significant increase in tariffs on imports from the United States compared to just a few months ago. The economic impact of these barriers remains to be determined,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.
He reiterated that trade tensions caused an 8.3% drop in air cargo volumes in North America and flat growth in Europe of 0.8% in the sixth month of the year. Asia-Pacific bucked the trend, registering a 9% increase in the period. However, in the Middle East, armed conflicts caused a 3.2% decline in freight traffic.
IATA specified that the slight growth is due to the fact that technology, electronics, fashion, and consumer goods typically shipped between April and June, ahead of the summer retail cycle, were mostly shipped earlier to avoid the impact of tariffs. However, other goods are currently facing shipping delays, in some cases because production has shifted to countries with more favorable export conditions.
The report indicated that global air cargo capacity reached 51.4 billion available tonne kilometers in June 2025, representing a 1.7% year-over-year increase, but capacity was down 2.2 percentage points compared to May 2025, “a clear sign of capacity adjustments to accommodate lower air cargo demand .”
Given this scenario, Walsh believed that governments should intensify their efforts to simplify, reduce costs, and strengthen the security of commercial procedures through digitalization .
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