Trade policies have become one of the main factors redefining global trade. Beyond tariffs, governments are increasingly resorting to instruments such as import restrictions, subsidies, and other protectionist measures that alter the functioning of global supply chains , according to the World Trade Organization (WTO) .

In its most recent update of the Trade Policy Activity Index (TPA) , developed by the WTO and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) , it was indicated that trade regulatory activity continued to accelerate, reaching a new all-time high in early 2026 , the most pronounced since data collection began.

The indicator reflected that between January and May of this year, global trade policy activity nearly doubled its 2024 level and stood approximately 25% above its 2025 average, confirming that government intervention in international trade continues to intensify.

According to the document, this behavior reflects an increasingly frequent use of trade policy for objectives that go beyond the exchange of goods, such as industrial policy, economic security, and the protection of strategic sectors.

Economists from both organizations identified that the turning point began after episodes such as the US-China tariff escalation between 2018 and 2019, the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022. These factors were compounded by trade tensions during 2025, which continue this year.

One of the report’s main findings is the shift in the composition of trade measures. While actions aimed at facilitating trade—such as simplifying customs procedures or reducing barriers—have lost momentum in recent years (with the exception of the Strait of Hormuz crisis, where they accounted for more than two-thirds of all measures taken), restrictive actions have become more prevalent .

The study indicated that tariff increases, quantitative restrictions, import bans, and other trade control mechanisms are the main drivers of the growth observed in the index.

The increase in trade measures is no longer concentrated in the major economies . Although G20 countries continue to register the largest spikes in activity, this behavior has spread to smaller economies, reflecting a transformation of the global trade environment .

According to the report, trade policy activity is expected to continue increasing throughout the rest of 2026.

For companies linked to logistics, transport and foreign trade, this scenario implies a more complex regulatory environment, where the ability to adapt supply routes, diversify suppliers and respond to regulatory changes will be increasingly crucial to maintaining competitiveness.

Trade policy decisions no longer only affect market access, but also the configuration of supply chains, operational resilience, and foreign trade costs.

The analysis comes in a context where the United States has imposed tariffs of between 10% and 12.5% ​​on imports from 60 trading partners, including Mexico, under section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 on forced labor, further complicating international trade.

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El cargo WTO and IMF warn of increased restrictive measures in global trade apareció primero en T21.

The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) warned that increased volatility and fragmentation of trade policies are weakening the conditions of stability on which developing countries depend to expand their exports, attract foreign investment and diversify their economies .

In its most recent World Trade Update , the international organization detailed that trade rules have become less predictable .

“Countries are increasingly using discriminatory trade measures such as tariffs, investment controls and technological restrictions linked to industrial policy, national security and geopolitics ,” he said.

For developing countries, such conditions can be detrimental, as many of these nations rely on a limited range of exports and have little capacity to absorb economic shocks.

According to the analysis, despite the current adverse environment, trade continues to be an essential driver for developing countries – known as South-South trade – which has expanded rapidly within the framework of the multilateral trading system,  going from $500 billion in 1995 to $6.8 trillion in 2025 .

However, participation remains uneven: the least developed countries account for only 1.1% of global exports , far from the 2% target set for 2030, despite preferential access regimes.

Given this situation, the organization stressed the urgent need to restore certainty to trade rules . A system based on clear and stable rules is key for smaller economies to integrate into global value chains and attract investment.

The World Trade Organization ‘s (WTO) dispute settlement mechanism remains a fundamental tool: since 1995, 644 disputes have been registered, which led to the creation of 378 panels – independent teams of specialists who examine trade disagreements and issue rulings.

“Restoring a fully functional dispute settlement system is essential to maintaining fairness and predictability in global trade,” the UN agency’s report stated .

He also pointed out that services, digital technologies and the green transition are increasingly important sources of economic growth, although many developing countries remain on the sidelines of these sectors.

For example,  least developed countries account for less than 1% of global services exports . Between 2014 and 2024, their services exports grew by only 3% annually, compared to 5.3% globally, revealing the barriers they face in participating in the global services economy.

“Clearer multilateral rules in areas such as digital trade, financial services and professional services would also help ensure that developing economies can participate in these emerging sectors,” UNCTAD explained.

The report concludes that strengthening the multilateral trading system is not only an institutional necessity, but an indispensable condition for inclusive and sustainable development .

Strengthening international cooperation and ensuring the full participation of developing countries in new areas of trade will be crucial to sustaining global economic growth and expanding opportunities in an increasingly uncertain environment, marked by constant tariff changes and conflicts such as the one in the Middle East.

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El cargo Developing countries are the most vulnerable to trade tensions: UNCTAD apareció primero en T21.

Despite geopolitical tensions, rising tariffs, and increasing uncertainty about trade policies, globalization continues at historically high levels , according to the Global Connectivity Report 2026 , produced by DHL and New York University’s Stern School of Business, which shows that international flows of trade, capital, information, and people remain resilient.

The study—based on more than nine million data points—indicated that the global level of connectivity reached 25% in 2025 , the same record level achieved in 2022. This suggests that, although political and trade barriers persist, countries and companies are largely maintaining their international links.

John Pearson, CEO of DHL Express, highlighted that the continued high levels of globalization reflect its importance in addressing global challenges.

“Globalization remains strong, and that alone speaks volumes about its value. The world’s greatest challenges can only be solved through global thinking,” he stated.

The report highlighted that global trade grew in 2025 at its fastest pace since 2017 , excluding the volatile period of the COVID-19 pandemic. Part of this growth was attributed to the United States bringing forward its imports in anticipation of potential tariff increases.

Furthermore, the rise of artificial intelligence significantly boosted trade. Products related to this technology accounted for 42% of the growth in global merchandise trade in the first three quarters of 2025 , according to data from the World Trade Organization (WTO) .

Looking ahead, the report anticipates that US tariffs could moderate trade growth, but not halt it. Global merchandise trade is projected to grow by an average of 2.6% annually until 2029 , a rate similar to that of the past decade.

The United States and China reduce their trade ties.

One of the most noticeable changes in global dynamics is the gradual decoupling between the United States and China . Trade between the two economies accounted for only 2.0% of global trade during the first three quarters of 2025 , down from 2.7% in 2024 and 3.6% at its peak in 2015.

However, the report highlighted that this reduction has a limited impact on the global landscape. Even with the distancing between these two powers, the world economy shows no signs of splitting into rival trading blocs.

In fact, during the last decade only between 4% and 6% of global trade and investment flows have been diverted from geopolitical rivals , and most have gone to economies with more flexible positions, such as India or Vietnam.

Beyond trade, the report identified mixed trends in other international flows:

• Capital: Global foreign direct investment increased and cross-border mergers and acquisitions remained strong, although announced investment in new facilities fell in 2025.
• Information: Digital flows, which had been the most dynamic engine of globalization, show greater volatility since 2021 due to geopolitical tensions and data restrictions.
• People: After the collapse caused by the pandemic, international travel, student mobility and migration reached new all-time highs.

Record trade distances

Contrary to predictions of regionalization in supply chains, the report highlights that goods traveled the greatest average distance on record in 2025: 5,010 kilometers (km) . Similarly, foreign direct investment projects in new facilities reached a record average distance of 6,250 km .

These figures suggest that, despite geopolitical tensions, companies continue to operate in global networks and have not migrated massively towards regional models.

In the ranking of the most globalized countries, Singapore remains in first place, followed by Luxembourg and the Netherlands . At the regional level, Europe leads the ranking, followed by North America and the Middle East and North Africa .

For its part, Mexico ranked 78th out of 180 economies , with data from 2024. Although its position has not improved since 2019, the country advanced eight places compared to 2023 and registered a slight increase in its score.

The report highlighted that Mexico’s trade pattern reflects its strategic role within North American supply chains . Approximately 87% of its exports go to the United States and Canada , while these countries account for only 41% of its imports , demonstrating a more diversified supply network.

According to the analysis, this role could strengthen as more companies continue to invest in Mexico to diversify their supply chains in the face of dependence on China.

Steven A. Altman, director of the DHL Initiative on Globalization at NYU Stern, noted that the political debate about globalization is often more volatile than the economic reality.

“The risks to globalization are real, but so is the resilience of global flows,” he said.

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El cargo Globalization remains strong despite geopolitical tensions: DHL apareció primero en T21.

During the last few months, global trade has seen a sustained increase in measures  that directly impact business operations .

According to data from the World Trade Organization (WTO) , between October 2024 and October 2025, more than a thousand new measures were implemented in this area, many of them related to imports and tariff adjustments, confirming an environment of high regulatory volatility.

This context is already reflected in concrete operational decisions within companies. One of the first steps has been to identify whether the products they import are subject to new tariffs , particularly those from countries with which Mexico does not have free trade agreements .

As a result, companies face decisions such as absorbing the additional cost , seeking alternative suppliers , or rethinking their supply schemes .

The impact of these changes goes beyond the final price of the product . They have also resulted in longer customs processing times, delays in the release of goods, and increased pressure on delivery schedules, especially for operations that depend on constant flows to maintain their profitability, warned Ilan Epelbaum, CEO of Mail Boxes Etc. (MBE)  in Mexico.

Given this scenario, the specialist commented that financial and operational planning have become more important. Companies are conducting more detailed profit and loss analyses to determine if their business models remain viable under the new market conditions.

At the same time, he explained that a more conservative inventory strategy is beginning to emerge , with additional margins to absorb unexpected delays or adjustments, even if this implies a higher financial cost .

Routes and safety, with greater operational pressure in 2026

The reconfiguration of entry routes into the country is already a reality, Epelbaum said. Recent experience has shown that relying on a single crossing point , port , or transport provider increases operational risk , leading companies to diversify entry points and routes to reduce their exposure to regulatory changes.

Adding to this situation is the concern about the security of goods in transit . The increase in thefts on highways and strategic corridors has forced the reinforcement of measures such as cargo insurance, accurate declaration of value, and greater attention to packaging, particularly for higher-value shipments, explained Epelbaum.

According to data from the  National Association of Vehicle Tracking and Protection Companies (ANERPV) , in the second quarter of 2025, nearly 90% of cargo thefts reported nationwide were concentrated in 10 states. Puebla (23.5%) and the State of Mexico (20%) accounted for 43.5% of the incidents. These were followed by Guanajuato (8.3%), Michoacán (6.3%), Jalisco (6%), Veracruz (5.3%), Hidalgo (5.3%), San Luis Potosí (5%), Querétaro (4.3%), and Nuevo León (3.5%).

Security remains a critical factor for the competitiveness of trade in Mexico , especially as the country seeks to consolidate its position as an investment destination through nearshoring (relocation of production lines). Certainty regarding highways , customs , and border crossings is key to maintaining the flow of goods and attracting foreign investment .

The message from the start of 2026 is that it’s not a year of less commercial activity , but rather one of more demanding commerce with less room for error. The companies that adapt best will be those that incorporate scenario planning, risk diversification, and operational flexibility in an environment where the rules of the game continue to evolve.

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In the second half of the year, global merchandise trade could slow down, following the rebound shown in the first half of 2025 (2H25), which stemmed from advance purchases before the tariff increase and from the increase in demand for products related to Artificial Intelligence (AI), according to the latest Goods Trade Barometer , published by the World Trade Organization (WTO) .

This indicator, which provides real-time information on the trajectory of merchandise trade in relation to recent trends, fell to  101.8 points in September, compared to 102.2 in June and below the quarterly trade volume index.

According to the WTO, barometer values ​​above 100 show an upward trend, while values ​​below 100 suggest that merchandise trade has fallen below trend or will do so in the near future.

The agency indicated that all the indices that make up the barometer are above their common base value of 100, except for the agricultural commodities index , which stood at 98.

The indices related to air transport (102.7) and container transport (101.7) continue to show expansion, although at a slower pace than a few months ago, the WTO analysis detailed.

Meanwhile, the automotive products index , at 103 points, has stabilized above trend, while the electronic components index , at 102 points, showed an increase above trend in 2025.

The new export orders index stood at 102.3 points, exceeding the base value of 100 in the second quarter, following some volatility in late 2024 and early 2025. “Overall, the indices show signs of moderation in the growth of world trade.”

According to the WTO’s most recent forecasts, merchandise trade is estimated to grow by 2.4% in 2025 and 0.5% in 2026 , reflecting rising tariffs and persistent uncertainty surrounding trade policy in the second half of 2025 and into the coming year

“Merchandise trade in the first half of 2025 registered higher-than-expected growth (4.9% year-on-year), but increased tariffs and persistent uncertainty surrounding trade policies are expected to weigh on growth in the second half,” the report said.

It’s worth remembering that US President Donald Trump has initiated a trade war with several countries. Meanwhile, these protectionist measures continue to generate uncertainty for investors and global trade.

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The World Trade Organization (WTO) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) developed the Trade Policy Activity (TPA) Index ,  a tool to measure the evolution of trade policies worldwide .

The new indicator, developed by economists from both organizations and based on a Dynamic Factors Model, draws on data from the WTO’s Trade Tracking Database (TMDB) and the Global Trade Alert (GTA), allowing for a timely and comprehensive capture of the dynamics of trade measures adopted by multiple economies and sectors .

According to the researchers, the index revealed a marked upturn in business activity between 2019 and 2020, coinciding with events such as the COVID-19 pandemic, tensions between major powers, and rising geopolitical risks .

This structural shift reflects a broader use of trade policy to achieve goals such as environmental sustainability, national security, and industrial development. Furthermore, the CPA identifies cyclical patterns and temporary spikes , such as the US-China tariffs, the war in Ukraine, and recent new protectionist measures.

The index also distinguishes between different types of measures, such as trade facilitation versus other interventions. Since the implementation of the Trade Facilitation Agreement in 2017 , there has been a sustained increase in these types of measures, especially during crises such as the pandemic and the conflict in Ukraine, when countries sought to ease restrictions on essential goods, they detailed.

Beyond retrospective analysis, the APC has the potential to become an early warning tool for policymakers .

The study’s authors propose incorporating high-frequency macro data to improve the index’s predictive capacity and reduce data collection gaps.

“With further testing and expansion by the authors, the TPA index could become a valuable tool for monitoring global trade policies and could be updated by WTO and IMF economists to promote greater transparency and dialogue,” the organizations stated.

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El cargo WTO and IMF develop tool to measure trade policy activity apareció primero en T21.

The World Trade Organization (WTO) has launched a new interactive tool, presenting monthly bilateral trade statistics for more than 120 economies and over 200 of their trading partners across 72 product categories .

The tool is updated weekly and is based on statistics from the Trade Data Monitor (TDM) , which collects trade data from government agencies and bureaus around the world.

This consultation tool is available on the WTO’s tariff and trade data portal , according to information published by the multilateral organization.

The WTO’s monthly merchandise trade statistics include three interactive dashboards , helping users explore and analyze trade trends.

In this sense, it provides short-term information . This section offers total trade values ​​and growth rates by product for a selected economy, providing a reference to recent performance and trends.

The bilateral trade panel provides trade values, offering information on key relationships and dynamics at the product level.

The All Partners section provides trade values, growth rates, and partner shares for a selected economy, highlighting changes in trade patterns.

The dashboards cover statistics from 2018 to the latest available month for each economy, and aggregate trade flows in monthly, quarterly, and year-to-date views.

“This allows for a detailed and comparative analysis of trade performance over time. The tool helps policymakers, researchers, and businesses understand the dynamics of international trade,” the WTO explained.

According to a survey conducted by T21 using the tool, Mexico exported the equivalent of $10,595.64 million in vehicle sales during July 2025, 9% less than in the same month in 2024.

In the second quarter of the year (2Q25), vehicle shipments abroad totaled $32,404.14 million, representing a 0.2% increase compared to the same period last year.

The WTO tool indicated that from January to July 2025, Mexico exported $72,943.82 million worth of vehicles, a 1.8% drop compared to the same period in 2024.

According to the tool, Mexico exported vehicles to the United States for the equivalent of $9.237 billion in the seventh quarter of 2025. Meanwhile, in the second quarter of 2025, the country sent $28.549 billion worth of cars to the United States, with the total totaling $65.264 billion.

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According to the analysis, trade volume grew 4.9% year-over-year, while the dollar value increased 6% , which was an improvement over the WTO’s forecast. The digital value chain, from silicon to AI devices, was a key factor in this expansion.

“Countries’ measured response to tariff changes in general, the growth potential of AI, and increased trade with the rest of the world, particularly among emerging economies, helped mitigate trade setbacks in 2025,” said WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala.

AI-related goods, such as semiconductors, servers, and telecommunications equipment, accounted for nearly half of trade growth in the first half of the year , with a 20% year-over-year increase in value. South-South trade also showed dynamism, growing 8% year-over-year and up to 9% between partners other than China.

Outlook for 2026

Despite improved projections for this year, the outlook for 2026 is less encouraging, as the delayed impact of tariff increases, reduced inventories, and greater political and trade uncertainty could lead to a slowdown.

Global merchandise trade volume growth is expected to contract to  0.5% in 2026. Global gross domestic product (GDP) growth is estimated at 2.7% for 2025 and 2.6% for the following year.

The WTO estimates that Europe will lead growth in services exports in 2025, followed by Asia and the Middle East, while North America will show a moderate performance. In 2026, Asia and Africa are expected to accelerate their services exports , while other regions will face a slowdown or stagnation.

The European Union recently announced it will double its steel tariff from 25% to 50% to safeguard its steel mills and jobs; it will also halve the tariff-free steel quota to combat Chinese competition, which is considered unfair.

The WTO projections come amid uncertainty in global trade, driven by the United States’ tariff policy, which has affected the flow of global merchandise trade.

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El cargo World trade expected to grow in 2025, but could slow in 2026: WTO apareció primero en T21.

The World Trade Organization (WTO) released the 2025 edition of its World Trade Report , revealing that if accompanied by appropriate policies, artificial intelligence (AI) could increase cross-border trade in goods and services by up to 40% by 2040 .

The report projects that AI, by improving productivity and reducing trade costs, has the potential to generate an increase in global trade of between 34% and 37% , depending on the degree of technological and policy convergence between economies at different income levels. Furthermore, global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) could grow by between 12% and 13%.

“AI has enormous potential to reduce trade costs and boost productivity. However, access to AI technologies and the ability to participate in digital trade remain highly unequal,” said WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala.

On the other hand, the report noted that the number of quantitative restrictions on AI-related goods has increased from 130 in 2012 to nearly 500 by 2024 , primarily in high- and upper-middle-income economies. Furthermore, bound tariffs on these goods reach up to 45% in some low-income economies, limiting equitable access to technologies.

However, he reported that for this AI growth to be inclusive, it is necessary to close the digital divide, invest in education and training, implement appropriate labor policies, and maintain an open and predictable business environment. In an optimistic scenario, where low- and middle-income economies reduce their digital divide by 50% , their revenues could increase by 15% and 14%, respectively.

The WTO suggests that greater participation in the Information Technology Agreement and updates to the General Agreement on Trade in Services could make AI more accessible and affordable for all.

The report was launched during the opening day of the WTO Public Forum, where Okonjo-Iweala noted that the new report came “amid the worst disruptions to the global trading system in 80 years, ” and while there are several headwinds, she said the potential of AI is one of the current silver linings.

“The continued political backlash against trade has much to do with the insufficient investment in education, training, retraining, and social safety nets over the past three or four decades of globalization. We cannot afford to repeat this mistake with AI,” he concluded.

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El cargo AI could boost global trade by nearly 40% by 2040: WTO apareció primero en T21.

The Mexican government is seeking to impose tariffs on more than 1,400 sectors such as automotive, steel, textiles, aluminum, footwear, plastics, motorcycles, trailers, and glass, among others, through the Mexican Industrial Protection Program , presented through a legislative initiative.

The objective of this measure is to comply with the provisions of Plan Mexico , protect national industry in strategic sectors, replace imports from Asia with domestic production, and improve the country’s trade balance, the Ministry of Economy (SE) emphasized .

The proposal calls for a tariff increase of 1,463 tariff items , protection for 19 strategic industrial sectors, and an impact on $52 billion in imports and 8.6% of total national imports.

The measure, which seeks to impose taxes of up to 50% , will apply to countries that do not have a trade agreement with Mexico.

In accordance with the initiative’s criteria, imports of final goods and inputs were selected. Furthermore, efforts were made to avoid generating inflationary pressures and to respect World Trade Organization (WTO) tariff ceilings .

“This measure aims to replace imports with domestic production, generating thousands of jobs. It also protects 325,000 jobs that were at risk in these strategic industries, which are located in the country’s major industrial and manufacturing centers, such as Nuevo León, Jalisco, the State of Mexico, Mexico City, Querétaro, among others,” the document stated.

On September 9, during the presentation of the details of the 2026 Economic Package , Carlos Lerma Cotera, Undersecretary of Revenue at the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP) , explained that the Ministry of Finance conducted a comprehensive analysis to assess the impact on value chains.

The official noted that, meanwhile, the SHCP collaborated in the study of potential inflationary effects, and indicated that approximately 70 billion pesos (mdp) in additional import taxes are being considered.

According to the General Economic Policy Criteria, these revenues are projected to increase by 40.7% by 2026, reaching 254.8 billion pesos.

Lerma reiterated that the goal is to reduce the trade deficit in some goods , especially those where the gap between what is bought and sold abroad has doubled in the last year.

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