Global trade is undergoing a transformation due to the growing demand for essential minerals, including lithium, cobalt, nickel, copper and rare earth elements, which are fundamental to clean energy technologies, electrification, digitalization and the energy transition , warned the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) .

According to the latest  World Trade Update , the international organization indicated that demand for lithium is expected to increase by 353% between 2024 and 2040, while demand for graphite is expected to rise by 131%.

“Clean technologies are expected to account for a larger share of demand. Their share of lithium demand is projected to increase from 62% in 2024 to 87% in 2040,” he stated.

The report stressed the need to diversify supply sources , improve market transparency and strengthen international cooperation, which could contribute to open, stable, secure, transparent, rules-based and sustainable trade.

UNCTAD specified that the supply of essential minerals for the energy transition is concentrated in reserves, mining, processing and refining.

“This concentration is especially acute in processing and refining, where the highest value activities take place,” he pointed out.

In that regard, he noted that in 2025, the Democratic Republic of Congo  accounted for 74% of global cobalt production,  Indonesia for 67% of nickel, and  China  for 69% of rare earth elements, reflecting the concentration of critical mineral supply in just a few countries.

“Diversifying processing capacity, promoting recycling, and strengthening national value chains will take time. It will also require long-term investment and coordinated political support,” the analysis emphasized.

He added that governments are increasingly turning to trade policy to secure access to critical minerals, strengthen industrial competitiveness, and build more resilient supply chains.

“Since 2020, nearly 100 new export measures have been introduced on minerals essential for the energy transition, including 37 licensing requirements, 31 export taxes, 29 export bans, and one export quota. The Democratic Republic of Congo has introduced the largest number of measures, followed by China and Indonesia,” he noted.

The study analyzed 73 collaboration agreements, 58 of which were signed since 2022. These agreements are helping to reshape supply chains by combining trade, industrial, and investment policy instruments.

Agreements involving developing countries tend to focus more on extraction, with fewer provisions to support value addition.

UNCTAD considered that trade in critical minerals is at a crossroads, as it can either boost export earnings, investment and structural transformation in developing countries, or it can reinforce extractive models and fragment markets into rival blocs.

In response, the organization indicated that  greater international cooperation and political coherence are essential.

“Trade policy must support both the development needs of developing countries rich in critical minerals and the global transition to a digital and low-carbon economy,” he said.

The report comes in a context where the United States has imposed export restrictions on semiconductor technology to China, where the Asian country has responded with export controls on graphite, gallium and germanium.

Meanwhile, Mexico and the United States established a joint action plan on critical minerals with the aim of ensuring the supply of essential inputs for various key sectors of industry.

The plan includes regulations for the extraction, processing, and trade of these minerals. It also outlines technical and regulatory cooperation , as well as research and development of new technologies in this area, among other aspects.

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Rising geopolitical tensions are testing the resilience and momentum shown by the global economy at the start of 2026, with a projected slowdown of 2.6% for this year. This is because rising energy prices, transport disruptions, market volatility, and the search for safe-haven financial assets will hinder investment and demand, warned the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) .

According to the report “Trade and Development Outlook 2026: The world economy faces a geopolitical challenge” , the United Nations agency noted that the world economy entered 2026 with resilience, supported by trade, industrial production in developing economies and investment linked to artificial intelligence (AI).

However, he warned that the global economy is moving from an initial phase of supply disruptions and inflation to a more fragile period , where prolonged uncertainty could trigger shortages and greater financial strain.

The analysis indicated that although recent years have been largely marked by trade tensions and political uncertainty, geopolitical risks are now becoming the main source of instability for the global economy.

In this context, developing economies are the most vulnerable , as they face rising fuel, food, and fertilizer prices, while also struggling with exchange rate pressures, tighter financing conditions, and lower investor confidence.

UNCTAD noted that much of the resilience observed in 2025 was due to the growing role of developing economies in trade. “Prolonged instability now threatens to undermine that momentum.”

The report noted that rising energy prices are driving up fertilizer prices and exacerbating food inflation in several developing economies.

“At the same time, volatility and tighter financing conditions are exposing the vulnerabilities of global food trading systems,” he stressed.

He warned that food security is no longer just about availability and prices. Increasingly, it is also a matter of financial stability, especially for governments already facing higher debt servicing costs.

Global merchandise trade remained relatively strong until early 2026, but much of the momentum was concentrated in AI-related products, such as semiconductors, servers, and data processing equipment . Outside of these sectors, trade growth remained much more cautious, particularly in traditional industries and commodity-related sectors.

UNCTAD predicted that global merchandise trade growth will slow from 4.7% in 2025 to between 1.5% and 2.5% in 2026 , as uncertainty and geopolitical tensions affect supply chains, shipping, and investment decisions.

Despite this environment, the organization urged ” strengthening international cooperation , achieving more predictable trade conditions, implementing greater financial safeguards for developing economies and accelerating investment in clean and affordable energy to stabilize growth and reduce vulnerability to future crises.”

The UNCTAD report comes amid tensions in the Middle East, which began on February 28.

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The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) warned that increased volatility and fragmentation of trade policies are weakening the conditions of stability on which developing countries depend to expand their exports, attract foreign investment and diversify their economies .

In its most recent World Trade Update , the international organization detailed that trade rules have become less predictable .

“Countries are increasingly using discriminatory trade measures such as tariffs, investment controls and technological restrictions linked to industrial policy, national security and geopolitics ,” he said.

For developing countries, such conditions can be detrimental, as many of these nations rely on a limited range of exports and have little capacity to absorb economic shocks.

According to the analysis, despite the current adverse environment, trade continues to be an essential driver for developing countries – known as South-South trade – which has expanded rapidly within the framework of the multilateral trading system,  going from $500 billion in 1995 to $6.8 trillion in 2025 .

However, participation remains uneven: the least developed countries account for only 1.1% of global exports , far from the 2% target set for 2030, despite preferential access regimes.

Given this situation, the organization stressed the urgent need to restore certainty to trade rules . A system based on clear and stable rules is key for smaller economies to integrate into global value chains and attract investment.

The World Trade Organization ‘s (WTO) dispute settlement mechanism remains a fundamental tool: since 1995, 644 disputes have been registered, which led to the creation of 378 panels – independent teams of specialists who examine trade disagreements and issue rulings.

“Restoring a fully functional dispute settlement system is essential to maintaining fairness and predictability in global trade,” the UN agency’s report stated .

He also pointed out that services, digital technologies and the green transition are increasingly important sources of economic growth, although many developing countries remain on the sidelines of these sectors.

For example,  least developed countries account for less than 1% of global services exports . Between 2014 and 2024, their services exports grew by only 3% annually, compared to 5.3% globally, revealing the barriers they face in participating in the global services economy.

“Clearer multilateral rules in areas such as digital trade, financial services and professional services would also help ensure that developing economies can participate in these emerging sectors,” UNCTAD explained.

The report concludes that strengthening the multilateral trading system is not only an institutional necessity, but an indispensable condition for inclusive and sustainable development .

Strengthening international cooperation and ensuring the full participation of developing countries in new areas of trade will be crucial to sustaining global economic growth and expanding opportunities in an increasingly uncertain environment, marked by constant tariff changes and conflicts such as the one in the Middle East.

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Despite geopolitical tensions, rising tariffs, and increasing uncertainty about trade policies, globalization continues at historically high levels , according to the Global Connectivity Report 2026 , produced by DHL and New York University’s Stern School of Business, which shows that international flows of trade, capital, information, and people remain resilient.

The study—based on more than nine million data points—indicated that the global level of connectivity reached 25% in 2025 , the same record level achieved in 2022. This suggests that, although political and trade barriers persist, countries and companies are largely maintaining their international links.

John Pearson, CEO of DHL Express, highlighted that the continued high levels of globalization reflect its importance in addressing global challenges.

“Globalization remains strong, and that alone speaks volumes about its value. The world’s greatest challenges can only be solved through global thinking,” he stated.

The report highlighted that global trade grew in 2025 at its fastest pace since 2017 , excluding the volatile period of the COVID-19 pandemic. Part of this growth was attributed to the United States bringing forward its imports in anticipation of potential tariff increases.

Furthermore, the rise of artificial intelligence significantly boosted trade. Products related to this technology accounted for 42% of the growth in global merchandise trade in the first three quarters of 2025 , according to data from the World Trade Organization (WTO) .

Looking ahead, the report anticipates that US tariffs could moderate trade growth, but not halt it. Global merchandise trade is projected to grow by an average of 2.6% annually until 2029 , a rate similar to that of the past decade.

The United States and China reduce their trade ties.

One of the most noticeable changes in global dynamics is the gradual decoupling between the United States and China . Trade between the two economies accounted for only 2.0% of global trade during the first three quarters of 2025 , down from 2.7% in 2024 and 3.6% at its peak in 2015.

However, the report highlighted that this reduction has a limited impact on the global landscape. Even with the distancing between these two powers, the world economy shows no signs of splitting into rival trading blocs.

In fact, during the last decade only between 4% and 6% of global trade and investment flows have been diverted from geopolitical rivals , and most have gone to economies with more flexible positions, such as India or Vietnam.

Beyond trade, the report identified mixed trends in other international flows:

• Capital: Global foreign direct investment increased and cross-border mergers and acquisitions remained strong, although announced investment in new facilities fell in 2025.
• Information: Digital flows, which had been the most dynamic engine of globalization, show greater volatility since 2021 due to geopolitical tensions and data restrictions.
• People: After the collapse caused by the pandemic, international travel, student mobility and migration reached new all-time highs.

Record trade distances

Contrary to predictions of regionalization in supply chains, the report highlights that goods traveled the greatest average distance on record in 2025: 5,010 kilometers (km) . Similarly, foreign direct investment projects in new facilities reached a record average distance of 6,250 km .

These figures suggest that, despite geopolitical tensions, companies continue to operate in global networks and have not migrated massively towards regional models.

In the ranking of the most globalized countries, Singapore remains in first place, followed by Luxembourg and the Netherlands . At the regional level, Europe leads the ranking, followed by North America and the Middle East and North Africa .

For its part, Mexico ranked 78th out of 180 economies , with data from 2024. Although its position has not improved since 2019, the country advanced eight places compared to 2023 and registered a slight increase in its score.

The report highlighted that Mexico’s trade pattern reflects its strategic role within North American supply chains . Approximately 87% of its exports go to the United States and Canada , while these countries account for only 41% of its imports , demonstrating a more diversified supply network.

According to the analysis, this role could strengthen as more companies continue to invest in Mexico to diversify their supply chains in the face of dependence on China.

Steven A. Altman, director of the DHL Initiative on Globalization at NYU Stern, noted that the political debate about globalization is often more volatile than the economic reality.

“The risks to globalization are real, but so is the resilience of global flows,” he said.

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A radical transformation in the international trade landscape, driven by drastic changes in US tariff policy, is redefining export competitiveness globally , with developing economies and least developed countries (LDCs) being the most exposed as they generally face larger tariff increases, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) warned .

According to the most recent World Trade Update , the organization detailed that until 2024, access to the U.S. market was governed primarily by the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) Most Favored Nation (MFN) rules , where most trading partners faced similar tariffs. However, by early 2026, the average applied tariff had risen by almost 15 percentage points.

This change has reduced the proportion of imports subject to MFN or duty-free tariffs from 66% to just 20%, resulting in a highly differentiated tariff structure.

UNCTAD pointed out that competitiveness no longer depends solely on productive efficiency, but also on relative preferential margins , which shows how non-uniform tariff structures create advantages for some exporters and disadvantages for others.

In that regard, he cited the example of rice, whose US imports from Italy have become, on average, 12 percentage points cheaper than rice from other suppliers. Conversely, at the beginning of 2026, US imports of South African wine were approximately 17 percentage points more expensive relative to other countries than they were in 2024.

The report warned that developing economies and LDCs are the most exposed , since their exports are generally mostly to the United States.

While developed economies have managed to maintain or even improve their relative competitive position in sectors such as machinery and textiles, many developing nations face increasing obstacles, the analysis indicated.

In that context, for some LDCs, the average tariff increase has exceeded 35 percentage points , which worsens their ability to compete on price in the US market.

Nevertheless, the tariff disparity opens up specific opportunities. For example, countries like Cambodia (with rice) and Haiti (with men’s shirts) could benefit if their competitors face larger price increases.

The escalating tariffs remain a persistent barrier. One example is the cocoa supply chain: while raw cocoa beans enter the United States duty-free, tariffs on chocolate have risen significantly, making it difficult for producing countries like Ivory Coast, Ghana, or Ecuador to process their own raw materials for export.

Given this scenario, conditioned by geopolitical and economic factors, UNCTAD recommended monitoring changes in relative competitiveness , diversifying export markets to reduce dependence on restrictive unilateral policies, and taking advantage of preferential positions where agreements exist.

The report reveals how global trade has entered an era of strategic fragmentation, where the paradigm of a world market with uniform rules and low tariffs is being replaced by a complex chessboard, in which politics weighs as much as productivity.

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Geopolitical tensions, changes in supply chains, and increasing pressure from fragmentation in the world, among other factors, could cause a slowdown in global trade during 2026 , which will affect developing economies the most, projected the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) .

According to the latest World Trade Update (January 2026) , the United Nations agency highlighted the trends that will prevail in the global exchange of goods this year.

In that regard, he estimated that global economic and trade  growth  will remain moderate, at around 2.6% in 2026 , while growth in developing economies, excluding China, will slow to around 4.2%. This will hit developing countries hard, which will be constrained by the slowdown in infrastructure investment and industrialization. “Stronger regional trade and diversification will be crucial to building resilience.”

“Preserving special and differential treatment remains fundamental to boosting industrialization and food security. Decisions on agriculture, digital trade, and climate-related measures will determine whether global rules support development,” he emphasized.

The analysis revealed that increased protectionism can generate more political uncertainty . Global tariffs increased in 2025, driven primarily by measures implemented by the United States, with the manufacturing sector being the most affected. Governments are expected to continue using tariffs in 2026 to achieve industrial and strategic objectives . The report noted that smaller and less diversified economies will be the most exposed to rising costs and trade volatility.

Another trend identified by UNCTAD is that almost two-thirds of global trade takes place in value chains that are being transformed by geopolitical tensions , industrial policy, and new technologies. Companies are diversifying their suppliers and relocating production closer to key markets to reduce risk.

“Countries with strong infrastructure, skills, and stable policies are better positioned to attract investment. More peripheral economies risk being left behind unless they improve logistics, skills, and the investment climate,” he explained.

He also noted that service exports currently represent 27% of world trade and grew by around 9% in 2025 , surpassing goods exports, with digital services largely driving this increase.

The analysis highlighted an increase in South-South trade, where developing countries are driving the growth of global exports.

“South-South merchandise exports increased from around $0.5 trillion in 1995 to $6.8 trillion in 2025. Today, 57% of developing countries’ exports go to other developing markets, led by Asia’s regional value chains,” he stressed.

He highlighted that Africa and Latin America are also strengthening South-South ties. “Deeper intraregional trade can help offset lower demand in advanced economies and boost resilience.”

Another trend is that environmental commitments are increasingly influencing trade as climate pledges move from ambition to implementation . “By the end of 2025, pledges from 113 countries could reduce emissions by approximately 12% by 2035.”

It also identified that oversupply of critical minerals and geopolitics can destabilize global trade and value chains, and stressed that agricultural trade will remain fundamental to food security.

Finally, he noted that trade regulations have tightened, and that national policies are reshaping global trade. “Since 2020, around 18,000 new discriminatory trade measures have been introduced. Technical regulations currently affect approximately two-thirds of global trade.”

2025 was marked by trade and geopolitical tensions that, according to analysts, will continue this year, which will continue to impact global trade, especially due to the United States’ tariff measures.

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Following an increase in trade due to advance purchases before the implementation of the new tariffs, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) estimated that global trade growth during the first half of 2025 could fall from 4% to between 2.5% and 3%, “with a slowdown on the horizon . ”

According to the Trade and Development Report 2025 , global economic growth is also projected to slow to 2.6 percent in 2025 , down from the pre-COVID-19 pandemic trend of 3 percent.

UNCTAD’s analysis indicated that economies such as the United States and Europe are slowing down, as is China, while “across the global south, financial volatility and weaker external demand are putting pressure on investment and employment.”

Given this challenging global outlook, developing economies will drive almost 70% of global growth in 2025 , but face the greatest constraints in financing that growth, the organization explained.

Trade has become more sensitive to financial factors , such as fluctuations in interest rates or changes in investor confidence, which affects developing countries, as monetary volatility can make imports and debt repayment more expensive .

“Prices increasingly reflect speculative strategies, not supply and demand. When finance sets food prices, countries have more difficulty ensuring affordable and reliable supplies,” the organization stated.

The unusual situation of a weakening dollar while US Treasury bond yields rise could indicate lower short-term demand for US assets; however, the dollar’s dominance persists , as almost 90% of global foreign exchange trading (the buying and selling of currencies needed for global payments) involves the dollar.

“The dollar’s ​​influence goes far beyond central bank reserves or trade pricing. It affects who can access credit, where investment flows, and how quickly financial crises spread around the world,” the report explained.

UNCTAD highlighted that developing countries now account for more than 40% of global merchandise production and trade , and almost 60% of global Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows , up from 22% in the mid-2000s.

“However, their participation in global financial markets remains low, at 25%, and has even decreased, a mismatch that limits their development. Excluding China, developing countries control only 12% of the value of the global stock market and 6% of the global bond market,” he noted.

The report warned that domestic financial markets have not kept pace, leaving many developing countries dependent on foreign banks and markets, “often with high and volatile interest rates.”

Given this scenario, the report stressed the need to build economies that can withstand shocks , adapt to transitions, and grow sustainably even under conditions of uncertainty.

In that regard, the analysis suggested reforming the global financial system to support climate-vulnerable countries; expanding regional financial cooperation; strengthening national financial ecosystems; addressing emerging financial risks beyond the banking sector; and promoting “networked multilateralism,” UNCTAD concluded.

According to the United Nations report , the projected global economic slowdown by 2025 would be driven by increasing volatility in financial markets and geopolitical uncertainty , factors that are putting pressure on trade and investment worldwide.

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In the second half of the year, global merchandise trade could slow down, following the rebound shown in the first half of 2025 (2H25), which stemmed from advance purchases before the tariff increase and from the increase in demand for products related to Artificial Intelligence (AI), according to the latest Goods Trade Barometer , published by the World Trade Organization (WTO) .

This indicator, which provides real-time information on the trajectory of merchandise trade in relation to recent trends, fell to  101.8 points in September, compared to 102.2 in June and below the quarterly trade volume index.

According to the WTO, barometer values ​​above 100 show an upward trend, while values ​​below 100 suggest that merchandise trade has fallen below trend or will do so in the near future.

The agency indicated that all the indices that make up the barometer are above their common base value of 100, except for the agricultural commodities index , which stood at 98.

The indices related to air transport (102.7) and container transport (101.7) continue to show expansion, although at a slower pace than a few months ago, the WTO analysis detailed.

Meanwhile, the automotive products index , at 103 points, has stabilized above trend, while the electronic components index , at 102 points, showed an increase above trend in 2025.

The new export orders index stood at 102.3 points, exceeding the base value of 100 in the second quarter, following some volatility in late 2024 and early 2025. “Overall, the indices show signs of moderation in the growth of world trade.”

According to the WTO’s most recent forecasts, merchandise trade is estimated to grow by 2.4% in 2025 and 0.5% in 2026 , reflecting rising tariffs and persistent uncertainty surrounding trade policy in the second half of 2025 and into the coming year

“Merchandise trade in the first half of 2025 registered higher-than-expected growth (4.9% year-on-year), but increased tariffs and persistent uncertainty surrounding trade policies are expected to weigh on growth in the second half,” the report said.

It’s worth remembering that US President Donald Trump has initiated a trade war with several countries. Meanwhile, these protectionist measures continue to generate uncertainty for investors and global trade.

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According to the analysis, trade volume grew 4.9% year-over-year, while the dollar value increased 6% , which was an improvement over the WTO’s forecast. The digital value chain, from silicon to AI devices, was a key factor in this expansion.

“Countries’ measured response to tariff changes in general, the growth potential of AI, and increased trade with the rest of the world, particularly among emerging economies, helped mitigate trade setbacks in 2025,” said WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala.

AI-related goods, such as semiconductors, servers, and telecommunications equipment, accounted for nearly half of trade growth in the first half of the year , with a 20% year-over-year increase in value. South-South trade also showed dynamism, growing 8% year-over-year and up to 9% between partners other than China.

Outlook for 2026

Despite improved projections for this year, the outlook for 2026 is less encouraging, as the delayed impact of tariff increases, reduced inventories, and greater political and trade uncertainty could lead to a slowdown.

Global merchandise trade volume growth is expected to contract to  0.5% in 2026. Global gross domestic product (GDP) growth is estimated at 2.7% for 2025 and 2.6% for the following year.

The WTO estimates that Europe will lead growth in services exports in 2025, followed by Asia and the Middle East, while North America will show a moderate performance. In 2026, Asia and Africa are expected to accelerate their services exports , while other regions will face a slowdown or stagnation.

The European Union recently announced it will double its steel tariff from 25% to 50% to safeguard its steel mills and jobs; it will also halve the tariff-free steel quota to combat Chinese competition, which is considered unfair.

The WTO projections come amid uncertainty in global trade, driven by the United States’ tariff policy, which has affected the flow of global merchandise trade.

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Faced with adjustments due to geopolitical and structural pressures, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) warned of the stagnation of global trade and maritime transport resulting from the tariff policy promoted by the United States.

“Political tensions, new tariffs, changing trade patterns, and the reconfiguration of maritime routes are reshaping the geography of maritime trade,” the organization stated.

According to its report,  Shipping in Review 2025: Staying the Course in Troubled Waters , released Wednesday, global seaborne trade grew by 2.2% in volumes and 5.9% in ton-miles in 2024, but is forecast to slow by 0.5% in 2025 , “before averaging 2% annually over the period 2026-2030.”

He detailed that maritime energy trade patterns showed a shift, with coal increasing, oil remaining stable with longer routes, and gas also registering an increase.

The report highlighted that trade in critical minerals is expanding, creating opportunities, but also risks. “These developments are transforming maritime trade and placing new demands on transport and logistics .”

According to the agency’s analysis, there were route changes due to various situations, such as the Red Sea crisis in 2024, which caused an increase in freight rates . Added to this were geopolitical tensions this year, such as the disruption of maritime activity in the Strait of Hormuz .

“The Strait of Hormuz, through which 11% of global trade and a third of seaborne oil trade flow, also faces disruption risks. The diversion to longer routes will increase carbon emissions from shipping in 2024,” he explained.

UNCTAD noted that new tariffs in the United States and other countries have added complexity. For developing economies , the rerouting could create transshipment opportunities at some ports, but would also increase maritime transport costs.

Regarding fleet renewal , he indicated that safe vessel recycling, global standards on greenhouse gas emissions control, and a skilled workforce are key to a timely and just transition to low- carbon shipping .

In the face of geopolitical and trade disruptions, he considered that freight rate volatility has become the new normal.

“Container, bulk, and tanker freight rates have remained high and volatile in 2024 and 2025, with sharp fluctuations amid geopolitical tensions, shifts in trade policies, and supply-demand imbalances. This instability is increasing global trade costs,” he emphasized.

Vessel diversions have lengthened voyages, reduced effective capacity, and raised operating costs, impacting container shipping , with spot and charter rates nearing their COVID-19 pandemic peaks in mid-2024 before declining, “but still well above pre-crisis levels. Volatility has continued into 2025 amid new tariffs and the risk of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.”

The report warned that ports are under increased pressure as vessel diversions and rescheduling of ports of call disrupt schedules.

“Between December 2023 and March 2024, average port waiting times increased by 23%, to 6.4 hours in developed economies, and by 7%, to 10.9 hours, in developing economies,” he added.

In this regard, he indicated that it is urgent to improve port performance, as well as adapt the infrastructure and services of these facilities to the impacts of climate change and modernize them for the energy transition.

Faced with an adverse environment, UNCTAD proposed various actions to improve maritime transport. In this regard, it considered that we must move toward a sustainable, resilient, and digitalized future .

He suggested leveraging maritime transport and logistics for equitable integration and transformation , promoting fleet modernization and sustainable maritime trade practices, implementing regulatory measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, as well as utilizing digital solutions and strengthening the regulatory framework to address cyber risks, among others.

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