Global trade is undergoing a transformation due to the growing demand for essential minerals, including lithium, cobalt, nickel, copper and rare earth elements, which are fundamental to clean energy technologies, electrification, digitalization and the energy transition , warned the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) .

According to the latest  World Trade Update , the international organization indicated that demand for lithium is expected to increase by 353% between 2024 and 2040, while demand for graphite is expected to rise by 131%.

“Clean technologies are expected to account for a larger share of demand. Their share of lithium demand is projected to increase from 62% in 2024 to 87% in 2040,” he stated.

The report stressed the need to diversify supply sources , improve market transparency and strengthen international cooperation, which could contribute to open, stable, secure, transparent, rules-based and sustainable trade.

UNCTAD specified that the supply of essential minerals for the energy transition is concentrated in reserves, mining, processing and refining.

“This concentration is especially acute in processing and refining, where the highest value activities take place,” he pointed out.

In that regard, he noted that in 2025, the Democratic Republic of Congo  accounted for 74% of global cobalt production,  Indonesia for 67% of nickel, and  China  for 69% of rare earth elements, reflecting the concentration of critical mineral supply in just a few countries.

“Diversifying processing capacity, promoting recycling, and strengthening national value chains will take time. It will also require long-term investment and coordinated political support,” the analysis emphasized.

He added that governments are increasingly turning to trade policy to secure access to critical minerals, strengthen industrial competitiveness, and build more resilient supply chains.

“Since 2020, nearly 100 new export measures have been introduced on minerals essential for the energy transition, including 37 licensing requirements, 31 export taxes, 29 export bans, and one export quota. The Democratic Republic of Congo has introduced the largest number of measures, followed by China and Indonesia,” he noted.

The study analyzed 73 collaboration agreements, 58 of which were signed since 2022. These agreements are helping to reshape supply chains by combining trade, industrial, and investment policy instruments.

Agreements involving developing countries tend to focus more on extraction, with fewer provisions to support value addition.

UNCTAD considered that trade in critical minerals is at a crossroads, as it can either boost export earnings, investment and structural transformation in developing countries, or it can reinforce extractive models and fragment markets into rival blocs.

In response, the organization indicated that  greater international cooperation and political coherence are essential.

“Trade policy must support both the development needs of developing countries rich in critical minerals and the global transition to a digital and low-carbon economy,” he said.

The report comes in a context where the United States has imposed export restrictions on semiconductor technology to China, where the Asian country has responded with export controls on graphite, gallium and germanium.

Meanwhile, Mexico and the United States established a joint action plan on critical minerals with the aim of ensuring the supply of essential inputs for various key sectors of industry.

The plan includes regulations for the extraction, processing, and trade of these minerals. It also outlines technical and regulatory cooperation , as well as research and development of new technologies in this area, among other aspects.

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Global trade is projected to reach a record $33 trillion in 2024, representing a 3.7% expansion or $ 1.2 trillion annual increase, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) said , warning that while trade remains strong, uncertainty will be a factor in 2025 due to the global geopolitical and economic environment.

According to the latest World Trade Update , the organization noted that this growth was driven by services, which increased by 9% year-over-year and added $700 billion , accounting for nearly 60% of total growth. Meanwhile, trade in goods increased by 2% , contributing $500 billion .

In its analysis, the organization indicated that most regions registered positive growth, except for Europe and Central Asia.

“Growth varied by industry: agri-food, communications technology, and transportation saw increases, while energy, apparel, and extractive industries slowed due to weak demand and policy changes,” he noted.

UNCTAD noted that momentum slowed in the second half of the year. In the fourth quarter, trade in goods grew less than 0.5% and trade in services increased only 1%.

“Trade inflation approached zero as traded goods prices stabilized in the final quarter of 2024. The lingering effects of high post-pandemic inflation appear to have run their course,” he detailed.

In its report, the United Nations agency explained that in 2024,  developing economies outperformed developed nations , with imports and exports increasing by 4% in the year and 2% in the fourth quarter, driven primarily by East and South Asia. Meanwhile, South-South trade expanded by 5% annually and 4% in the final quarter.

Meanwhile, trade in developed economies stagnated, “with imports and exports flat for the year and a 2% decline in the last quarter.”

At the start of 2025, trade has remained stable, but UNCTAD warned that rising geoeconomic tensions, protectionist policies, and trade disputes indicate likely disruptions ahead.

“The decline in shipping indices indicates weaker demand for manufactured goods, inputs, and raw materials as businesses adjust to rising uncertainty,” the analysis detailed.

The organization estimated that the challenge for this year is to avoid global fragmentation, in which nations form isolated trading blocs, while managing policy changes without undermining long-term growth.

As you may recall, US President Donald Trump has launched a tariff war with several countries. He imposed  25% tariffs  on Mexico’s steel and aluminum exports to the United States, as well as other nations. Meanwhile, he has suspended tariffs of a similar rate for Mexican products covered by the  United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA)  until April 2.

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