According to the organization, the Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index reached record levels in the first quarter of 2025, driven by the growing unpredictability that has become a global feature.

The index, which was near zero last year after peaking at 10,000 points in 2023, rose to more than 27,000 points during the first half of 2025, according to UNCTAD’s latest World Trade Update .

Although global trade has always faced complicated situations, such as pandemics and geopolitical divisions, the current climate of mistrust due to the tariff war has made uncertainty “systemic.”

“Businesses face difficult choices: stockpile goods, divert shipments, or pay higher transportation costs. In early 2025, the volatility of US imports increased compared to the previous year, even before the tariffs took effect, as businesses rushed to adapt. The cost of uncertainty itself often exceeds the tariff,” UNCTAD stressed.

Given this scenario, small exporters and developing economies are bearing the brunt of the impact, with limited financing and logistics to cushion the impact .

Uncertainty also poses a risk to financial and macroeconomic stability, as exchange rates fluctuate, capital flows contract, and borrowing costs rise.

“For developing countries, where access to commercial financing is already scarce, this translates into restricted credit and reduced investment. With global interest rates still high, the additional burden of unpredictability deepens fiscal fragility, limiting governments’ ability to finance growth and social development,” he said.

Uncertainty also erodes trust and cooperation , which UNCTAD considered the “most damaging” aspect, as when policies are unclear or rules are applied selectively, governments resort to unilateral measures that trigger retaliation. “This cycle fuels volatility in supply chains .”

While advanced economies recorded stable import trends, developing countries experienced more pronounced fluctuations in early 2025 , indicating how the most vulnerable economies are also the most exposed.

“The cost of unpredictability is evident: volatility punishes those least able to absorb it,” the organization emphasized.

Despite the climate of uncertainty and volatility in global trade, UNCTAD remained positive and noted that there are ways forward.

“Diversifying markets, strengthening trade agreements, and providing businesses with advance notice of policy changes can reduce risk. Above all, restoring stability and predictability is essential for businesses to invest, for countries to grow, and for trade to fulfill its role as an engine of development,” he encouraged.

The tariff policy promoted by the United States represents a hindrance to global trade, especially due to the uncertainty it generates among investors, who are seeking stable markets to invest capital.

The 90-day extension granted by the United States to Mexico for the collection of tariffs represents a “respite,” although it does not free the country from the uncertainty that will grow as the days go by and this period expires.

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Despite the escalating tariffs and the global economic restructuring, the World Trade Organization (WTO) projected growth in the volume of global merchandise trade for 2025, although this year it will be lower than estimated due to the anticipated concentration of exports to the United States before the new tariffs went into effect on August 7.

The multilateral organization forecast a 0.9% increase in merchandise trade for this year, after having estimated a 0.2% decline last April. For 2026, the WTO projected a 1.8% increase , a decrease compared to the 2.5% forecast in April.

“Global trade has shown resilience in the face of persistent shocks, including recent tariff increases. Anticipated imports and improved macroeconomic conditions have provided a modest boost to the 2025 outlook,” noted WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala.

These positive forecasts could be affected by increased tariffs, which will ultimately impact trade, especially in 2026, the agency warned in its analysis.

“However, the full impact of the recent tariff measures is still unfolding. The shadow of tariff uncertainty continues to weigh heavily on business confidence, investment, and supply chains. Uncertainty remains one of the most disruptive forces in the global trading environment,” added Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala.

The improved outlook for global merchandise trade is expected to be driven by an 11% year-over-year increase in U.S. imports in the first half of 2025, driven by inventory buildup and anticipated consolidation, although this earlier surge could lead to lower demand in the following months.

The global macroeconomic outlook is another factor that has influenced the upward forecast, as it is now more favorable. The depreciation of the US dollar against other currencies has also contributed, which could ease conditions for developing economies, the WTO emphasized.

The fall in oil prices should boost growth in manufacturing economies, the agency emphasized in its trade projections.

However, the higher reciprocal tariffs, which went into effect on August 7, are expected to increasingly impact U.S. imports and reduce exports from its trading partners in the second half of 2025 and into 2026.

In this regard, the WTO forecast that North American exports will decline by 4.2% this year, although they could increase by 0.7% in 2026. Meanwhile, it projected an 8.3% drop in imports in 2025, as well as a 2.4% decline next year.

The US-led tariff war has impacted global trade. Although the WTO’s forecasts are positive, the organization estimated that the hardest hit from the early import of goods could be felt in 2026.

It’s worth remembering that the United States granted Mexico a new 90-day pause before the tariffs go into effect, scheduled for August 1.

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The Mexican economy could grow 0.2% this year, despite the uncertainty generated by tariffs around the world, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated in its World Economic Outlook (WEO) update published Tuesday.

According to the analysis, this increase represents a 0.5% increase compared to its previous report in April, when it estimated that Mexico’s economy would contract 0.3%.

The report indicated that Mexico’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) would also show positive signs for 2026, with a projected growth of 1.4 percent .

In the Latin American and Caribbean region , the international organization forecast economic growth of 2.2% for this year, 0.2 percentage points higher than anticipated in April.

By 2026, the International Monetary Fund expects the situation in the region to improve, and has therefore anticipated a 2.4 percent increase in GDP.

The forecast for advanced economies is for growth of 1.9% for 2025 and 1.6% for 2026.

The United States is expected to be the best performer in this area, with a projected 1.9% increase for this year and 2% for 2026.

“In the United States, real GDP declined at an annualized rate of 0.5%, marking the first quarterly contraction in three years. Consumer spending increased by just 0.5%, but this comes after posting very rapid 4% growth in the fourth quarter of 2024,” the document detailed.

Furthermore, global growth rates are projected at 3% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, an upward revision from the estimates in last April’s edition of the report.

“Global growth is expected to slow as the apparent resilience stemming from trade distortions is waning. The forecasts of 3.0% for 2025 and 3.1% for 2026 are below the 3.3% observed in 2024 and the pre-COVID-19 historical average of 3.7%, but are higher than the April baseline forecast,” the report noted.

The agency stated that this was due to the advance of imports before the tariff increases, as well as lower effective tariff rates , improved financial conditions, and fiscal expansion in some important jurisdictions.

Meanwhile, in terms of global trade volume , the IMF estimated a 0.9 percentage point increase in 2025 and a 0.6 percentage point decrease in 2026.

“The short-term momentum from the frontloading of certain trade flows is expected to dissipate in the second half of 2025 due to heightened trade policy uncertainty and the prospect of increased trade restrictions, with consequences expected to materialize throughout 2026,” the report stated.

The IMF explained that the outlook continues to be affected by the potential increase in tariffs , increased uncertainty, and geopolitical tensions. “Restoring confidence, predictability, and sustainability remains a top policy priority,” it emphasized.

The organization warned that, despite a better balance sheet, “geopolitical tensions could disrupt global supply chains and increase commodity prices.”

It’s worth remembering that the United States has launched a global tariff war by levying taxes on various products imported into the United States, which affects Mexico, one of its main trading partners.

Mexico, like other countries, is waiting to reach an agreement with the United States on tariffs to avoid the 30% tariff that the United States announced to the Mexican government in a letter on July 12, and which would be implemented on August 1.

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Oswaldo Villanueva, CEO of VR International and a businessman with more than 20 years of experience in the customs, logistics, and supply chain sectors between Mexico and the United States, warned that this volatility is affecting key decisions regarding sourcing, delivery times, and transportation costs , which has generated tensions between manufacturers, retailers, and logistics providers.

“The sector was already facing significant challenges such as inefficient port infrastructure, geopolitical tensions, and a shortage of skilled labor. These problems have only worsened. Today, logistics companies must do more, do it faster, and with less certainty,” Villanueva said from his offices in Houston, Texas.

To address this complex environment, Villanueva proposed the creation of the North American Strategic Economic Region (NASER) , a strategy that seeks to consolidate the United States, Mexico, and Canada as a more competitive economic bloc compared to other regions of the world, beyond what is established by the Treaty between Mexico, United States and Canada (T-MEC)and compared to blocs such as the European Union, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) in Asia-Pacific, or the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) in Africa.

In his analysis of the evolution of international trade, Villanueva highlighted that current social, political, economic, and technological changes are forcing countries to rethink their trade agreements and policies, especially in the context of the trade war and tariff tensions.

The NASER model should include:

• A regional certification program (NASER Certified).
• Uniform regulations on customs, intellectual property, and e-commerce.
• Migration facilitation for specialized talent.
• Energy and environmental cooperation.
• Common strategies for nearshoring (relocation of production lines) and technology transfer.

Villanueva proposed that this vision must be managed by a long-term regional governance structure, with the support of international organizations such as the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) .

The challenge: taking advantage of the USMCA review in 2026

While July 1, 2026, is the scheduled date for the first joint review of the USMCA, the public consultation process is anticipated to begin in late 2025, an ideal time to assess progress, correct imbalances, and begin laying the foundations for NASER, taking advantage of nearshoring and the regionalization of supply chains.

The leader of VR International noted that technological acceleration, the rise of e-commerce, and pressure from increasingly informed consumers are forcing companies to become more agile, competitive, and collaborative.

In this context, North American business leaders must stop seeing themselves solely as suppliers to each other and begin to recognize each other as strategic partners and priority markets.

“Even though the trade war and the imposition of tariffs create uncertainty, business leaders must remain calm and avoid making hasty decisions,” the specialist said.

He added that leaders must focus on strengthening their finances, diversifying markets, improving productivity, and seeking new opportunities both within and outside the region.

“International trade is a high-stakes game of chess. Everyone has an opinion, but few truly understand the moves,” he said.

He also warned that time is of the essence: “The sooner North America adopts a truly integrated and competitive vision, the greater its potential to become the most attractive and powerful economic region in the world.”

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The specialist specified that tariffs are a bad measure for the global economy, the U.S. economy, and Mexico. “We estimate that Mexico has imposed some tariffs , but particularly on anything that doesn’t respect the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) .”

He explained that the Mexican economy has been stagnant for two years due to very high interest rates and the previous administration’s “overreach” in fiscal matters and excessive spending.

“It’s internal uncertainty, it’s the elections, and a rather worrying deterioration of the checks and balances in Mexico, with judicial reform and elections for judges, which is a structural factor. The truth is, this prevents us from being more optimistic about the Mexican economy in the long term, because legal certainty and the certainty of the rules of the game are very important, and you can’t see it overnight. That’s going to continue to be negative,” he stated during the Banamex Dialogues event .

What does the global outlook look like?

Regarding the global outlook, Sergio Kurczyn noted that on the financial front, “things are going quite well, with a lot of nervousness in the financial markets, but beyond the risks, if you look at the stock markets, the American one in particular has done well so far this year, but also others like the European one.”

Interest rates have been declining in recent quarters , across the globe in general, the specialist estimated, adding that in terms of productive activity, the global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) tends to grow by around 3% and was close to this goal in 2024, although he anticipated a slowdown to 2.3% this year.

“In the central scenario, that is, in productive activity, we have been seeing a slowdown in the global economy for several months now, and in particular a slowdown in production in the American economy, which is very important for Mexico and also helps explain the outlook for slowdown or stagnation we see for the country’s economy,” he emphasized.

He asserted that these figures “are good numbers” and emphasized that “there are financial conditions for growth today.”

Despite this, he considered that there is nervousness due to current and structural factors such as Donald Trump ‘s presidency and the changes and executive orders he has signed, which have contributed to the inflation caused by tariffs.

U.S. interest rates affect Mexican interest rates, especially medium- and long-term interest rates, although short-term interest rates in the country depend on what the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) does in the coming months.

Among the geopolitical issues that affect the global economy, energy is almost always a factor, as was the case in Ukraine with the price of gas, he added.

“We believe that commodities will remain there, so the geopolitical issue becomes a risk, but not in the sense that it will affect oil supply in the central scenario. We already have the price of oil for us, which will be five dollars lower in 2025 compared to 2024, or even another five dollars in 2026. We no longer see anything affecting the global economy in terms of oil prices,” he added.

For the specialist, the configuration of globalization and the deglobalizationthat is being promoted is changing, which is negative for the world, particularly for the United States, and also for countries like Mexico that are heavily dependent on the external sector.

He said that the tariffs imposed by the United States are the highest in 100 years, since after “Liberation Day,” named by Trump, on April 2, they rose to 25% after having reached 2.5% in 2024, although the US president later backtracked, so he estimated that they are at approximately 13%, however, he estimated that they could go lower.

“We estimate they’re around 13%, which is hard to keep track of exactly, a lot, 13% versus 2.5%, but it already sounds reassuring compared to 25%. We think they’ll end up around 10%, with a lot of gaps here and there, and many exceptions,” he shared.

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