The Mexican economy is projected to grow by only 1.4% by 2026 , due to factors such as limited private investment caused by uncertainty about domestic policies, coupled with a reduced boost from major public infrastructure projects, the World Bank estimated .

In its report Economic Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean , corresponding to October 2026, the organization predicted that this growth is below the regional expansion and the 2.1% forecast for Brazil, the other largest economy in the region.

The outlook for Mexico reflects a slowdown from the 3.1% growth observed in 2023 and 1.5% in 2024. After advancing by just 0.5% in 2025, the Mexican economy is expected to show a gradual recovery, with a projected growth of 1.8% in 2027 and 2.2% in 2028, according to World Bank estimates.

Mexico’s performance is constrained by tight monetary conditions, uncertainty surrounding economic policies, and a slowdown in public investment . These factors limit the ability of domestic demand to become a stronger engine of growth.

Latin America and the Caribbean

At the regional level, the organization noted that the relative stability of economic expansion masks downward revisions in the outlook for several countries. Furthermore, per capita GDP growth is projected to be low in 2026, meaning that the increased economic activity will not necessarily translate into a significant improvement in people’s incomes.

In that regard, the World Bank projected that the economy of Latin America and the Caribbean will grow 2.2% in 2026 , below the 2.4% recorded in 2025, in an environment marked by international uncertainty, fiscal constraints and high financing costs.

In contrast to Mexico and Brazil, some Latin American economies will show greater dynamism. Paraguay is projected to grow by 4.7% in 2026, while El Salvador is expected to grow by 4.5%, Panama by 4.2%, and the Dominican Republic by 4.7%. Peru, meanwhile, is expected to register growth of 3.2%, compared to 2.3% for Colombia and 0.8% for Chile.

In South America , Argentina would also stand out for its recovery, with a projected growth of 2.1% this year, after the contractions recorded in 2023 and 2024. The World Bank linked the improved outlook to fiscal adjustment, structural reforms, and measures aimed at strengthening market confidence and stimulating investment.

In Central America , performance would be supported by the recovery of investment and external flows. Guatemala would grow 3.7%, Honduras 3.4%, Nicaragua 3.6%, and Costa Rica 3.3%.

The Caribbean , however, presents significant differences. Guyana is projected to expand by 23.7%, driven by its oil sector, while Suriname is expected to grow by 3.9%.

The World Bank highlighted that exports from the region’s major economies have shown resilience despite the volatility of trade policies. Furthermore, the opening of new trade corridors through agreements, such as the one established between the European Union and Mercosur, represents an opportunity to diversify markets and strengthen trade flows.

However, these favorable factors face internal and external obstacles. Private investment remains subdued amid economic uncertainty and real financing costs, while consumer confidence weakened by mid-2026 in several economies in the region , after showing signs of stabilization earlier in the year.

Added to this is the risk that the volatility of international energy prices will prolong inflationary pressures. The report noted that this scenario has led central banks to act cautiously, slowing monetary easing or maintaining restrictive conditions, which limits access to credit and makes business investment decisions more expensive.

Fiscal space also represents a constraint on regional growth. High levels of public debt and interest costs reduce the resources available for government investment, while the potential climate effects of El Niño could impact agriculture , hydroelectric power generation, and food and energy prices.

Given this scenario, the World Bank identified productivity as one of the main structural challenges facing Latin America and the Caribbean . While artificial intelligence (AI) represents an opportunity to improve production processes, the organization warned that its adoption does not automatically guarantee higher levels of efficiency, especially in economies where microenterprises, informality, and skills gaps predominate.

The report concluded that the region’s moderate growth does not necessarily represent its economic potential.

For Mexico and the rest of Latin America, strengthening investment, improving labor skills, reducing barriers to productivity, and taking advantage of trade opportunities will be key factors in consolidating more sustained growth and translating it into higher incomes for the population.

Comment and follow us on LinkedIn:  @GrupoT21

El cargo Mexican economy expected to grow in 2026; productivity and investment, the challenges: World Bank apareció primero en T21.

Logistics competitiveness is no longer measured solely by opinions. The World Bank (WB) has introduced a profound transformation of its international assessment by replacing the traditional Logistics Performance Index , based primarily on surveys of industry professionals, with the Logistics Performance Indicators (LPI) 2.0 , a system built with millions of operational records of shipments, vessels, and cargo movements.

The new methodology abandons the overall rating and the single country ranking. Instead, it incorporates 21 indicators—six core and 15 supplementary— that separately analyze the connectivity, speed, and reliability of maritime, air, and postal supply chains. The first results correspond to 2023 and 2024.

The change alters how logistics performance is assessed. A country can no longer simply boast a position in a global ranking ; now it must demonstrate how many markets it directly connects, how long cargo remains immobilized, and how predictable its logistics processes are.

For Mexico, the first analysis leaves one clear conclusion: the country maintains competitive maritime connectivity , but continues to lag behind in the speed at which goods leave its ports.

Maritime connectivity: Mexico surpasses Brazil and Canada, but remains far behind the leaders

In 2024, Mexico was connected by direct maritime services to 52 economies , one less than a year earlier.

Economies connected through direct maritime services (2024)

The indicator shows that Mexico maintains a maritime network superior to that of Canada, Brazil, and Chile . However, it is still far behind major global logistics hubs such as the United States, China, the Netherlands, and Singapore.

However, the World Bank warns that connectivity represents only one part of logistics performance . The real challenge lies in transforming that network of services into goods available for production and consumption.

The main delay occurs when the cargo arrives in the country

That is where Mexico has its worst result.

During 2024, import containers remained an average of 9.3 days inside the port before departing for their final destination.

Average stay of imported container (2024)

Mexico registered the worst performance among the economies compared.

On average, one container remained:

• 3.4 days longer than in China.
• 5.1 days longer than in the United States.
• 7.2 days longer than in Singapore.

The result is even more significant because the indicator doesn’t just measure port performance . It also incorporates the time associated with customs clearance, inspections, document release, goods removal, availability of land transport, and road and rail access.

The median length of stay also places Mexico at the bottom of the group, while the dispersion of times increased between 2023 and 2024, a sign that the system not only became slower, but also less predictable.

China is a particularly relevant example . Despite operating the world’s largest manufacturing platform and one of its largest port systems, it maintained an average stay of 5.9 days, well below Mexico’s.

In air cargo the difference is reduced, but it persists

Air transport shows better performance for Mexico, although it also registered a deterioration compared to 2023.

Average stay of air imports (2024)

Mexico ranked only behind Panama and Brazil within the American continent, although still far from the main international hubs .

While China reduced its average time from 1.5 to 1.3 days between 2023 and 2024, Mexico went from 1.8 to two days.

Postal logistics are also losing speed

Another of the new indicators of the LPI 2.0 corresponds to business-to-business (B2B) postal logistics , used as a reference to evaluate e-commerce and small-scale international shipments.

Mexico slightly increased its connectivity, but the average delivery time increased.

Average B2B postal delivery time (2024)

Although Mexico expanded its postal connections to 84 economies, the average delivery time increased from 9.6 to 10.9 days between 2023 and 2024.

China followed the opposite trend: it significantly increased its connectivity and reduced its average delivery time from 7.7 to seven days.

A new way to measure logistics competitiveness

The World Bank’s main contribution is not simply to change one ranking for another.

LPI 2.0 shifts the analysis from available infrastructure to the actual performance of supply chains .

Now it matters less how many cranes, terminals or routes a country has and more how long it takes for merchandise to be reintegrated into the economy.

Under that logic, Mexico appears as an economy with relatively solid maritime connectivity, superior to that of Brazil, Canada and Chile, but with important areas of opportunity in the liberalization of goods.

The comparison with China is particularly illustrative. Both countries actively participate in international trade and have extensive manufacturing platforms. However, China not only connects directly with almost twice as many economies as Mexico, but also moves its imports more quickly.

The conclusion of the World Bank’s new system is clear: logistical competitiveness will no longer depend solely on installed capacity, but on the speed and certainty with which cargo manages to traverse the entire supply chain.

Comment and follow us on LinkedIn:  @Enrique Duarte Rionda  /  @GrupoT21

El cargo World Bank’s new Logistics Performance Indicators (LPI) 2.0 reveals lags in the export of goods apareció primero en T21.

At least 55 companies were trained and 20 companies accessed specialized consulting services to obtain international certifications as a result of a meeting that connected Mexican small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) with global automotive supply chains under the guidelines of the Mexico Plan .

This program is a model based on the demand of large companies in the automotive industry and was developed in collaboration with the Ministry of Economy (SE) and with the support of Nacional Financiera (Nafin) – Banco Nacional de Comercio Exterior (Bancomext) .

The meeting aimed to present the progress of the first generation of companies participating in this initiative, which is geared towards strengthening the national supply chain of the automotive sector .

“With the goal of fostering a stronger, more resilient and competitive supply network in Mexico and North America, the National Auto Parts Industry (INA) , in coordination with the International Finance Corporation (IFC) of the World Bank Group , participated in the Demo Day of the Supplier Development Program Plan Mexico-IFC-INA,” a statement said.

Vidal Llerenas Morales, Undersecretary of Industry and Commerce at the Ministry of Economy, emphasized that the auto parts industry is one of the sectors with the highest national content in Mexican manufacturing , a result of years of regional productive integration.

Therefore, he said, it is crucial to strengthen technical and financial support so that more Mexican companies can integrate into regional supply chains.

“The success we have had with this program encourages us to replicate it in other strategic sectors and contribute to greater shared prosperity in North America,” he emphasized.

Francisco González, CEO of INA, emphasized that strengthening local suppliers is a strategic priority for the Mexican economy and added that the automotive industry has consolidated itself as one of the central players in global manufacturing.

“We are the world’s fourth largest producer and exporter of auto parts, as well as the main supplier to the United States, with an industrial ecosystem that generates hundreds of thousands of jobs and plays a decisive role in regional trade,” he emphasized.

For her part, Sanaa Abouzaid, regional director for Mexico, Central America and the Dominican Republic at the IFC of the World Bank Group, stated that “this program turns the potential of Mexican SMEs into real business opportunities.”

“By closing technical, operational, and commercial gaps, we help more local companies integrate into global value chains , generate quality employment, and foster a more competitive automotive industry, contributing to the guidelines of the Mexico Plan. By the second half of 2026, the IFC will seek to integrate an additional 50 SMEs, benefiting more than 100 Mexican companies,” Sanaa Abouzaid pointed out.

According to figures from the INA, the auto parts sector in Mexico showed signs of resilience and recovery at the close of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 3.24% in November, which translated into a production of nine billion 877 million dollars (mdd) .

Meanwhile, from January to November 2025, the national production of auto parts reached a value of 110,038 million dollars , which represented a contraction of 2.86% compared to the same period in 2024, in line with the slowdown observed in the United States automotive market.

Comment and follow us on LinkedIn:  @GrupoT21

El cargo They promote the integration of Mexican SMEs with global automotive supply chains apareció primero en T21.

Once it recovers from the sharp increase in uncertainty regarding trade policies and companies adapt to the new trading environment, the Mexican economy could expand by 1.3% in 2026 , the World Bank (WB) projected , which would mean a downward forecast compared to a previous estimate by the multilateral organization that pointed to a growth of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 1.4 percent.

According to the  World Bank’s World Economic Outlook report , Mexico’s GDP would grow by 1.8% in 2027.

The projections for Mexico occur in a context where the review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is on the horizon , as well as constant changes in global trade policy, derived from US tariffs.

Meanwhile, growth in Latin America and the Caribbean is expected to rise slightly to 2.3% in 2026 , “as trade tensions and the uncertainty they entail remain high and domestic demand remains low in some countries, which will partially offset the positive effect of the easing of financial conditions.”

According to the World Bank document, regional growth will consolidate at 2.6% in 2027, as trade flows recover and domestic demand improves.

For the Caribbean, the World Bank estimated that GDP will increase to 5.2% in 2026 and 6.6% in 2027 , driven by Guyana’s current oil boom. “Excluding Guyana, the subregion is projected to grow by around 2.9% and 3.7%, thanks to tourism and related services,” it stated.

In Central America, economic growth is projected to remain generally stable at 3.6% in 2026 and 3.7% in 2027. “According to projections, remittance flows will decline, negatively impacting economic activity. On the positive side, the subregion is expected to continue benefiting from resilient exports and growth in the United States.”

Regarding the US economy, the organization predicted growth of 2.2% for this year and 1.9% for 2027 .

In Europe and Central Asia, growth is projected to remain stable at 2.4% in 2026 before rising to 2.7% next year. According to the World Bank, GDP in East Asia and the Pacific will slow to 4.4% in 2026 and 4.3% in 2027. Meanwhile, South Asia is expected to grow by 6.2% this year and then potentially recover to 6.5% in 2027.

According to the analysis, global growth is estimated to remain stable over the next two years, with a slight drop to 2.6% in 2026 before increasing to 2.7% next year.

“The global economy is proving to be more resilient than anticipated, despite persistent trade tensions and policy uncertainty,” the report highlighted.

According to the World Bank, the easing of global financial conditions and fiscal expansion in several large economies should help cushion the slowdown.

“To avoid stagnation and unemployment, governments in emerging and advanced economies must vigorously liberalize private investment and trade, curb public consumption, and invest in new technologies and education,” stressed Indermit Gill, chief economist and senior vice president for Development Economics at the World Bank Group.

Mexico, which maintains close economic ties with the United States, is particularly vulnerable to new tariff increases , which could worsen if there were more trade restrictions stemming from the negotiation of the USMCA, which Donald Trump, the president of the United States, has long scorned.

Just last January 13, the White House occupant declared that the USMCA was “irrelevant” and insisted that the United States does not need vehicles made in the country, to which the president of Mexico, Claudia Sheinbaum, ruled out entering into debate in the morning conference this Wednesday, since both economies are very integrated .

Comment and follow us on X:  @GrupoT21

El cargo World Bank “cuts the Mexican economy” by 2026 apareció primero en T21.

The World Bank recently adjusted its forecast for Mexico , predicting that the economy will grow just 0.2% in 2025, partly due to the impact of trade tensions with the United States and uncertainty surrounding investment and tariff policies.

In this context, Zapata Camiones Monterrey , an authorized Daimler distributor , is committed to remaining light, agile and focused.

“We believe in Mexico, we are going to work for Mexico, and there are many theories, and we are going to leave them as theory . We are going to adapt, move forward, and day by day, try to be better, to be better for our clients, to be the best tool, to support them to continue moving Mexico,” commented Alberto Drucker , general director of Zapata Camiones Monterrey.

With 96 employees , the agency maintains an efficient operation in its 50,000 square meter (m2) facilities , Drucker explained.

For the company, having a compact team is a strategic decision; it allows them to be agile, reduce unnecessary costs, and better adapt to a challenging economic environment.

From their base in Monterrey, they operate a workshop with 63 service bays , a six thousand m2 spare parts warehouse , and achieve an annual sales volume of close to 1,100 new units .

But beyond the numbers, the focus is on service. When a unit arrives for maintenance, it can be back on the road in just three hours , thanks to a model that anticipates needs through technology, telemetry, and synchronized processes .

Furthermore, they receive an average of 15 units per day : five continue their journey immediately and 10 enter technical support. Everything is designed to optimize workflow. Support is not only fast but also precise, and that has become its main differentiator, Drucker emphasized.

The operating model also includes appointment-based service, dedicated lanes, and spare parts deliveries to the exact location where the technician is working. Even during physical renovations, such as re-flooring the shop, the operation never stops.

As part of its 25th anniversary , the agency looks forward with conviction and seeks to contribute through service to keep Mexico moving.

Comment and follow us on X:  @karinaquintero  /  @GrupoT21

El cargo Zapata Camiones Monterrey adapts to the market without slowing down service apareció primero en T21.

According to an analysis, the international organization noted that advanced economies also recorded historic lows in FDI capture, registering $336 billion in 2023, the lowest figure since 1996.

As a percentage of their Gross Domestic Product (GDP), FDI inflows to developing economies in that year were only 2.3%, roughly half the level reached in 2008.

“It is no coincidence that FDI is reaching new lows at the same time that public debt is reaching historic highs. Private investment will now need to drive economic growth, and FDI is one of the most productive forms of private investment. However, in recent years, governments have been erecting barriers to investment and trade when they should be deliberately removing them. They will have to break this bad habit,” said Indermit Gill, Chief Economist and Senior Vice President of the World Bank Group.

The World Bank report also highlighted that investment treaties increase FDI flows between signatory countries by more than 40 percent. However, between 2010 and 2024, only 380 new investment treaties entered into force , barely a third of the number recorded in the 1990s.

In 2023, FDI accounted for approximately half of the external financing flows received by developing economies, he noted.

Under favorable conditions, the report noted, a 10% increase in investment inflows can generate a 0.3% increase in real GDP after three years, and in countries with stronger institutions, better human capital, greater trade openness, and lower informality, this impact can be almost three times greater.

The analysis found that investment is concentrated in larger economies. Between 2012 and 2023, approximately two-thirds of FDI flows to developing economies went to just 10 countries : China received almost a third of the total, while Brazil received 10% and India 6%. Meanwhile, the 26 poorest nations received barely 2% of the total. Half of the flows came from the United States and the European Union.

Efforts to improve FDI

The World Bank identified three strategic priorities to reverse the trend and strengthen investment in developing economies.

The first is to redouble efforts to attract FDI , which is why he recommended relaxing the restrictions on FDI that have accumulated over the last decade, in addition to accelerating the investment climate.

The second is to expand the economic benefits of FDI . Promoting trade integration, improving the quality of institutions, fostering human capital development, and increasing the participation of more people in the formal economy are some of the measures that would help attract more FDI, according to the institution.

The third seeks to promote global cooperation , where all countries must collaborate to foster policy initiatives that help direct FDI flows toward developing economies with the greatest investment deficit.

Against this backdrop, representatives from governments, international institutions, and the private sector will meet in Seville, Spain, from June 30 to July 3, at the 4th International Conference on Financing for Development, to discuss how to mobilize the financing needed to achieve key development goals.

Comment and follow us on X:  @GrupoT21

El cargo Foreign direct investment in developing countries falls to its lowest level since 2005: World Bank apareció primero en T21.

Rising trade tensions and greater global uncertainty stemming from political conditions have worsened the global economy, which is facing significant challenges, the World Bank (WB) said , which in this context revised downwards its growth forecast for Mexico for 2025, from 1.3% to just 0.2 percent .

According to its Global Economic Outlook report, the international organization forecasts Mexican economic growth of 1.1% in 2026.

In the report, the World Bank indicated that this decrease will be due to the fact that exports to the United States, which represent 80% of total shipments of goods abroad, will be affected by the tariffs promoted by Donald Trump , President of the United States, amid persistent uncertainty regarding investment and trade policies.

“Additional trade restrictions under a revised United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) could further reduce Mexico’s exports,” the agency added.

According to the report, Mexico, the second-largest economy in Latin America and the Caribbean, has been the hardest hit by the 25% tariffs on non-USMCA imports to the United States.

“All other countries in the region face a 10% tariff on exports to the United States, excluding energy products,” he stressed.

Regarding its outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean , the World Bank estimated that its growth will remain stable “at 2.3% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026 as growth weakens in most economies, except for Argentina, Colombia, Ecuador and the Caribbean.”

The forecast implied a downward revision of the region’s growth by 0.2 percentage points , with more than half of the region’s economies set to register a downgrade relative to previous projections.

“Emerging market and developing economies have reaped the benefits of trade integration, but now find themselves on the front lines of a global trade conflict,” said M. Ayhan Kose, World Bank Deputy Chief Economist and Director of the Prospects Group.

Regarding global growth, he projected it will be just 2.3% in 2025, driven by rising tariffs and greater uncertainty for nearly all the world’s economies.

Given this scenario, the organization noted that the  global economy  will experience its weakest average growth since the 1960s in the 2020s.

“A global recession is not expected, but if the forecasts for the next two years materialize, average global growth in the first seven years of the 2020s will be the slowest of any decade since the 1960s,” the analysis emphasized.

The report also highlighted that rising trade tensions and regulatory uncertainty are expected to lead to global growth posting its slowest pace this year since 2008.

The World Bank’s forecast for the largest economies is 1.2% this year and 1.4% by 2026.

In Europe and Central Asia, growth is expected to slow to 2.4% in 2025 before rising to 2.6% in 2026-2027. In the Middle East and North Africa , the World Bank projected growth to 2.7% in 2025 and strengthen to an average of 3.9% in 2026-2027.

Among other data, the organization projected that growth in East Asia and the Pacific will slow to 4.5% in 2025 and 4% in 2026.

Given the current uncertain environment, the World Bank suggested that to accelerate economic growth, countries will need to improve the business climate and promote productive employment, equipping workers with the necessary skills and creating the conditions for labor markets to effectively adjust to employees and businesses.

“Global collaboration will be crucial to support the most vulnerable developing economies, including through multilateral interventions, concessional financing, and, for countries experiencing active conflict, emergency relief and support,” he stressed.

Comment and follow us on X:  @GrupoT21

El cargo The World Bank predicts low economic growth in Mexico; it adjusts its global projections. apareció primero en T21.

“This will help Element increase the proportion of these types of vehicles in its fleet, contributing to significant greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions savings, estimated at 9,093 metric tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalent per year by 2029. This supports the country’s commitment to reduce GHG emissions by 35% by 2030,” Element, a fleet management company, detailed in a statement.

Of the total disbursement, $75 million is in additional type A loans and $25 million in type B or parallel loans to be mobilized.

“This is the first installment of a $600 million financing package to support Element’s commercial vehicle electrification efforts in Mexico , which is aligned with the country’s decarbonization and climate goals,” the firm explained.

The investment will facilitate the acquisition of EVs by Element customers in the country, including battery electric vehicles, hybrids, and plug-in hybrids, as well as the development of associated charging infrastructure, depending on the vehicle technology.

“This funding is a testament to our commitment and an enabler for creating a lasting legacy of sustainable and positive impacts within our communities. We are proud to lead these efforts in the region,” said Manuel Tamayo , president of Element in Mexico.

According to the company, the financing from IFC, a member of the World Bank Group , will be structured as a sustainability-linked loan , with key performance indicators related to decarbonization and also includes an emphasis on increasing women’s participation in the workforce.

“By promoting the adoption of electric vehicles, this investment will contribute to improving the sustainability of Mexico’s transportation sector. This investment demonstrates the viability of an innovative fleet management model to increase access to electric vehicles,” said Juan Gonzalo Flores, IFC Country Manager for Mexico.

Over the past decade, IFC has committed and mobilized more than $11.3 billion for transportation projects in emerging markets.

Comment and follow us on X: @GrupoT21

El cargo Element announces IFC investment for electric vehicle acquisition apareció primero en T21.

JIUTEPEC, MOR.- The decarbonization of heavy transport in Mexico must be built on a diverse technological ecosystem , ranging from ultra-low sulfur diesel to electric, natural gas and even hydrogen vehicles, according to Rogelio Arzate, executive president of the National Association of Bus, Truck and Tractor Producers (ANPACT) .

During his participation in the 3rd Meeting on Sustainable Technology and Mobility, organized by the National Association of Private Transportation (ANTP) , Arzate outlined the challenges and opportunities for the energy transition in freight and passenger transportation.

Currently, Mexico’s heavy-duty vehicle fleet has an average age of 19 years and mostly operates with Euro 3 technology. Upgrading to Euro 6 units could reduce polluting emissions, including particulate matter and nitrogen oxides (NOx), by 90%, Arzate said.

The executive president of ANPACT proposed a strategy based on four pillars :

1. Renewal of the vehicle fleet , with an initial goal of replacing 7,500 units with clean technologies.
2. Energy infrastructure , highlighting the lack of public electric and hydrogen stations for heavy vehicles.
3. Green financing , with participation of financial institutions and multilateral funds such as the World Bank .
4. Regulatory framework , which requires updating regulations on emissions, battery recycling, and extraction of critical minerals.

He also warned about the growth in used vehicle imports , which reached 29,000 units in 2024, almost triple the average of previous years.

To counter this, he proposed updating the current environmental agreement and applying USMCA criteria to limit its entry.

Arzate emphasized that this process cannot depend solely on the private sector. “The roadmap must be built with academia, authorities, civil society, and NGOs. Only then will we achieve a profound and sustainable transformation,” said the leader of the heavy vehicle manufacturers established in Mexico.

Comment and follow us on X: @karinaquintero / @GrupoT21

El cargo ANPACT proposes a comprehensive roadmap to decarbonize heavy transport in Mexico. apareció primero en T21.

According to the Timely Estimate of Quarterly Gross Domestic Product (EOPIBT) , published this Thursday by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) , the Mexican economy would have shown a contraction in the fourth quarter of 2024 (4Q24), its first fall since 2021, marked by a decline in agricultural and industrial activities.

According to seasonally adjusted figures, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fell 0.6% in the last quarter of last year, compared to the previous quarter. At an annual rate, the timely estimate showed an increase of 0.6 percent .

The Inegi report indicated that in the period October-December 2024, the GDP of primary activities , which include agriculture, mining and fishing, decreased 8.9% at a quarterly rate .

The secondary sector , which includes manufacturing and construction, showed a quarterly decline of 1.2% in the period in question. The GDP of the tertiary sector , which includes services such as trade, transport and communications, education and health, had a quarterly increase of 0.2% .

In 4Q24, at an annual rate, the timely estimate of GDP for tertiary activities increased by 2.2% , that of secondary activities fell by 1.7% and that of primary activities registered a decrease of 4.6 percent .

“The Timely Estimate of the Quarterly Gross Domestic Product offers, in the short term, a vision of the evolution of the country’s economic activities,” said Inegi regarding this indicator, which registered its first fall since 2021 and after 12 consecutive quarters with a positive performance.

According to estimates by the World Bank (WB) , Mexico will have economic growth of just 1.5% for 2025 and 1.6% for the following year, limited by the application of a restrictive monetary policy and fiscal consolidation.

Other factors that could affect this growth are the uncertainty generated by the protectionist trade policy that the President of the United States, Donald Trump , is seeking to implement, with the imposition of 25% tariffs on products from his southern neighbor.

Comment and follow us on X:@GrupoT21

El cargo Mexico’s GDP contracts in 4Q24; agricultural and manufacturing activities show decline apareció primero en T21.