The 2026 World Cup would have a marginally positive impact on airport groups and airlines in Mexico, as the increase in fares would be what motivates the increase in their income , according to an analysis by VALMEX Casa de Bolsa .

“Generally speaking, we believe the benefit derived from the World Cup will be marginal, so the improvement in airline revenue dynamics could be largely due to increased fares, which could be reflected in the air transport inflation data in Mexico, which has been showing an increase. This increase in fares could partially offset the increase observed in jet fuel costs, highlighting that fuel-related expenses tend to be the most significant expense for airlines,” explained Sebastián Martínez Reyes, an analyst at the firm.

He said that the observed increase in jet fuel costs will also be relevant , not only for airlines, but for airport groups, as they could begin to focus on more profitable routes again, with the aim of having a more efficient use of fuel, “so we do not rule out that the pressure derived from this increase could also put pressure on domestic operations.”

Regarding the movement of air passengers transported in countries that hosted a World Cup, he indicated that in the case of Qatar, the country that hosted in 2022, it managed to increase by 98.7% compared to 2021, being the strongest increase observed compared to other World Cup venues.

Meanwhile, in South Africa 2010 the variation was 26.2% more, in Russia 2018 it increased 11.1% and Germany 2006 9.8%, although in France 1998 it showed a negative variation of 2.7% and Mexico 1986 presented a drop of 10%, however, in this case the 1985 earthquake should be remembered which may have structurally affected traffic.

Regarding operations, Martínez stated that Mexican airlines are experiencing a favorable dynamic, driven primarily by international operations. Volaris and Aeroméxico stand out as the two airlines showing the best performance in international operations, while Mexicana and Viva Aerobus maintain a positive trend.

“In this context, we believe Aeroméxico is the airline that could benefit most from the World Cup, given its greater offering of international destinations, notably the airline’s recent launch of the Monterrey-Paris route. Volaris, on the other hand, could benefit more from a recovery in the VFR segment, as this is the primary type of tourist the airline serves.”

He explained that this World Cup will be different from the others, since it will be held in three different countries, something that has not been seen since 2002 when South Korea and Japan hosted, where both nations showed an average increase of 2.2% in the number of air passengers transported.

He also noted that total air traffic in Mexico has shown a clear slowdown in recent years ; however, in 2025 there were signs of recovery in airport operations. This boost was mainly due to domestic traffic, in contrast to international traffic, which continues to show a slowing trend.

“Within the sector, during 2024 the main airport groups in Mexico experienced a contraction in their growth rate; however, in 2025 they have managed to regain positive momentum, with the exception of the Mexico City International Airport (AICM) , whose operations continue to contract,” he emphasized.

He indicated that this scenario is mainly due to the Pratt & Whitney engine overhaul process , which affected the fleet of PW1100G-JM engines used by Airbus 320neo aircraft, models that are the second most used by airlines in Mexico, only behind the A320. At the beginning of 2024 these aircraft represented about 14% of the total number of aircraft in Mexico, while at the end of 2025 the figure rose to about 15%, and they were used by Viva and Volaris.

During the past year, the specialist recalled that there was progress in the process, which has allowed for a more balanced environment in the international and domestic operations of airlines, so, as progress continues, it is expected that the positive trend will be maintained in domestic operations in Mexico .

Regarding international operations, the slowdown trend is due to the Mexico City International Airport (AICM) and the Southeast Airport Group (Asur) , which together account for approximately 62% of the country’s international traffic.

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In 2025, air cargo handling in Mexico registered a drop of 2.4% compared to 2024 , due to the United States’ tariff policy, the review of trade with Asia, among other factors, specialists agreed.

Alik García, deputy director of Stock Market Analysis at  VALMEX Casa de Bolsa , added that the reconfiguration of air transport after the departure of dedicated cargo from the  Mexico City International Airport (AICM)  generated uncertainty.

“The freight sector is facing, on the one hand, tariff uncertainty, though not to the extent that had been expected. Furthermore, we have seen a gradual recovery at the end of last year. There has also been a cooling of nearshoring expectations due to the policies of US President Donald Trump and the review of trade with China, as well as the pressure Mexico has received to limit imports from that country,” García explained in an interview with T21.

He emphasized that the  review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) , and the impacts of meteorological phenomena, such as the case of the Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte (OMA) and its Monterrey airport, influenced the results.

The  Federal Civil Aviation Agency (AFAC) reported that during the past year 1,232,808.4 tons were transported, 30,777.2 tons less than in 2024, that is, a decrease of 2.4% year-on-year.

Juan Antonio José, an independent aviation analyst, agreed that the reduction originated from decisions made by the U.S. government. He also noted that cargo shippers are utilizing more ship capacity due to lower tariffs.

“If you have good supply chain planning, you don’t have to pay the premium for air freight for some supplies; it’s better to move them by sea, since they have more capacity and that means less need for air freight,” he commented.

The AFAC indicated that national air cargo volume fell from 391,667 tons in 2024 to 383,222.6 tons in 2025, representing a 2.2 percent annual decrease . Tijuana, Guadalajara, San Luis Potosí, Mérida, Hermosillo, and Cancún experienced declines of 1.2%, 8.6%, 4.3%, 1.6%, 17.4%, and 6.9%, respectively.

In the international market, the decrease in air cargo was 2.6% year-on-year , as 2025 closed with 849,585.7 tons, 22,332.9 tons less than in 2024.

The agency specified that the  Felipe Ángeles International Airport (AIFA) and the Monterrey Airport suffered annual declines of 7.7% and 11.9%, respectively.

Data from AFAC highlighted that AICM, Guadalajara and Cancun grew 3.4%, 10.9% and 4%, respectively, in the period January-December 2025.

Regarding the growth and decline for AICM and AIFA, Alik García considered that logistical issues played a role in this situation, since “the routes and connections that the airport (AIFA) will have are still not well defined and it is very likely that some cargo operations that were initially transferred are trying to relocate to other airports.”

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