Inflation in Mexico continues to slow. In May 2026, the National Consumer Price Index (INPC), which measures the average change in prices of products that make up a basket of goods and services representative of household consumption in the country, stood at 3.94% year-on-year , according to information from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) .

According to the agency, the core inflation index , which excludes goods and services with high volatility or whose prices do not respond to market conditions, increased 0.22% month-on-month . Within this index, goods prices rose 0.16% and services prices increased 0.29%.

The  non-core price index  —which includes goods and services whose prices are subject to fluctuations— fell 1.65% month-on-month . Within this index, fruit and vegetable prices dropped 3.18%, and energy and government-regulated prices decreased 1.67%. This was a result of seasonal reductions in electricity rates in 11 cities across the country.

Although inflation receded slightly during the period, the price of some products continues to put pressure on Mexicans’ wallets, such as potatoes and other tubers,  which increased in cost by 12.68%, LP domestic gas  by 2.04%, chicken by 1.52%, and corn tortillas with a monthly increase of 0.81%.

Conversely,  cucumber  was the product that decreased the most with a drop of 31.50%, followed by  green tomato  with a drop of 28.73%,  electricity  with 17.88%,  lemon  with 18.51%, natural domestic gas with a decrease of 7.88% and egg  with 4.92% monthly.

The states with a CPI variation above the national average were Hidalgo, Yucatán, and Jalisco. Meanwhile, Sinaloa, Sonora, and Baja California Sur were the states that reported the smallest increases in May 2026.

According to an analysis by Grupo Financiero Ve por Más (BX+) , the inflationary outlook is complex. Energy commodity prices remain high due to the conflicts in the Middle East, and their ultimate effects on inflation are still uncertain.

“This adds to the high levels of underlying inflation, despite a context of low economic dynamism,” he stressed, and indicated that on an annual basis, overall inflation was just below 4% for the first time in four observations .

“The inflationary outlook remains challenging. Energy commodity prices continue to be affected by geopolitical conflicts. This, coupled with a local context of wage pressures and expectations that economic activity will eventually show less weakness going forward,” the analysis stated.

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The downward trend in inflation in Mexico continued in the first half of May 2026, reaching 4.11% at an annual rate , which implied a decrease of 0.16% compared to the previous two weeks, according to the National Consumer Price Index (INPC) of the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) .

The  core price index  —which excludes goods and services with volatile prices— increased 0.13% on a biweekly basis, with a rise in the prices of goods of 0.09% and in those of services of 0.17%.

The  non-core price index  —which includes goods and services whose prices are subject to fluctuations—fell 1.14% on a bi-weekly basis. Within this index, fruit and vegetable prices dropped 0.53%, and energy and regulated tariff prices fell 1.64% on a bi-weekly basis.

Although inflation saw a slight decrease during the comparison period, the price of some products continues to put pressure on Mexicans’ wallets, such as potatoes and other tubers , which increased in cost by 5.46%, tomatoes with an increase of 5.39%, air transport with 4.34%, and LP domestic gas with 1.81% every two weeks.

Conversely,  cucumber was the product that decreased the most with a drop of 22.16%, followed by  green tomato  with a drop of 18.59%,  electricity  with 17.88%,  serrano pepper with 11.21%, lemon with 9.78% and  egg  with a decrease of 2.37% fortnightly.

By state, Hidalgo, the State of Mexico, and Jalisco led the bi-weekly variations, exceeding the national average. Meanwhile, Sinaloa, Sonora, and Baja California Sur reported the smallest increases in the first half of May.

The decrease in inflation during the cycle reflects an environment of slight stability in electricity prices; however, it also signals higher household expenses due to the increase in the price of some everyday consumer products.

According to estimates from Grupo Financiero BASE , inflation will close 2026 at 4.2 percent , a figure that is still outside the target range of the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) , which is 3% +/-1 percentage point.

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Inflation in Mexico accelerated again in March 2026, driven by the rise in agricultural products and services such as air transport , after the increase shown last February, when it stood at 4.02% at an annual rate, the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) announced .

According to the agency, in the third month of the year, the National Consumer Price Index (INPC), which measures the variation in prices of a basket of goods and services, registered an increase of 0.86% compared to the previous month. With this result, the overall annual inflation rate was 4.59% .

“The increase in some agricultural products and the effects of the conflict in the Middle East on energy led to inflation reaching its highest level since October 2024,” the  Financial Group Ve por Más (BX+) indicated  in an analysis.

According to Inegi, the  core price index  – which does not take into account the most volatile goods and services – increased 0.38% monthly , with a rise in the prices of goods of 0.29% and an increase of 0.48% in the prices of services.

“The underlying inflation rate declined slightly, but has remained above 4% for 11 consecutive months despite the fragility of economic activity. Goods prices fell, likely as the effect of January’s fiscal adjustments diminishes and given the currency appreciation of previous months. Conversely, services prices rebounded and are showing variations greater than their historical average despite a fragile economic context,” BX+ explained.

The  non-core price index  —which includes goods and services whose prices are subject to fluctuations— rose 2.46% month-on-month . Within this index, fruit and vegetable prices increased 10.75%, and energy and regulated tariffs rose 0.85% month-on-month, reflecting price pressures on various frequently consumed products and services in Mexico.

The increase in inflation in March is mainly explained by a rebound in the price of agricultural products such as cucumber with a rise of 42.71%, tomato  with 42.01%, air  transport with an increase of 26.28%,  lemon with 18.26%,  green tomato  with 16.46%, potato and other tubers with 14.92% and chicken with 2.82% monthly.

Conversely, the products with the greatest decrease in their cost during the cycle were nopales with a drop of 8.86%, papaya with 4.40%, internet, telephone and pay television packages with 3.59%, eggs with 2.69%, beans with 1.34% and pork with a decrease in its price of 1.28% on a monthly basis.

Among the states with the largest monthly increases in the National Consumer Price Index (INPC) were Guerrero, Puebla, and Tlaxcala . Meanwhile, Chihuahua, Baja California Sur, and Yucatán were among the states with variations below the national average.

According to Ve por Más’s analysis, the annual variation of the INPC “accelerated for the third consecutive month, adding two readings above 4% (upper limit of the Bank of Mexico ‘s tolerance range ) and reached highs since October 2024″ .

“The pressure came from the non-core index, given the marked reversal in agricultural products and –as a result of the conflict in Iran– the greater dynamism in energy,” he explained.

The financial institution considered that “the inflationary outlook has deteriorated ,” and therefore raised its year-end inflation forecast from 3.9% to 4.1%.

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