Within the framework of the event of

During the keynote address, entitled What economic challenges lie ahead for 2025? , Raúl Feliz warned that the Mexican economy faces a scenario of slowdown and even recession in 2025, with an estimated growth of 0.7% and a modest rebound to 1.8% in 2026. This is largely due to the threat of 25% tariffs that Trump has raised upon his return to the presidency of the United States.

“If we were to maintain a 25% tariff for five, seven or 10 months, the Mexican economy would lose, and this is an optimistic estimate, up to two points of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It could lose between two and four points,” said Feliz.

The specialist’s analysis not only focused on Mexico , but also on the US economy . According to Feliz, although the United States has had three consecutive years of growth close to 3%, it is now facing a slowdown that he considers natural and projects lower growth for 2025, around 2.2 percent.

According to the speaker, the markets have reacted negatively to Trump’s protectionist policies. The US stock market has registered sharp declines.

Technology companies have also suffered, with shares like Nvidia falling 23% and Tesla falling nearly 30%.

Feliz also pointed out that the US market itself is already sending clear signals of concern. He explained that if inflation increases, the US Federal Reserve will have no room to reduce interest rates.

He said that although various adjustments were implemented during Trump’s first administration to deal with economic pressures, this time the scenario is more limited, which would make it difficult to apply disruptive measures.

Mexico and Trump’s tariffs

The possible imposition of a 25% tariff on Mexican products by the United States represents a direct blow to key sectors, such as manufacturing and auto exports. Currently, Mexico is the United States’ main trading partner , but that position puts it in the crosshairs of Trump’s protectionist policy, according to Feliz’s explanation.

One of the most affected sectors would be the automotive industry . Feliz cited the case of the General Motors Silverado pickup , of which 31% is manufactured in Mexico, 20% in Canada and 49% in the United States.

“If you put tariffs on Silverado exports from Mexico or Canada, not only on the final product, but also on intermediate inputs, the positive cash flow that General Motors has on a Silverado becomes negative,” Feliz explained.

He also criticized Trump’s decision-making logic , saying a lack of understanding of supply chains could lead the United States into a self-inflicted crisis.

“That is the political game, but this game of not understanding how supply chains are linked is what can generate a recession in the United States,” he said.

What to expect in 2025?

Despite the adverse outlook, Feliz pointed out some factors that could mitigate the crisis. Among them, the expectation that the United States Federal Reserve will reduce its interest rates , which would allow the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to do the same and relieve economic pressure.

He also said that the markets have shown that Trump does not have unlimited room for manoeuvre . The collapse of the stock markets and the resistance of key sectors in the United States could force him to soften his stance in the coming months.

Feliz said the recent market declines show that Trump is not immune to the consequences of his policies.

He stressed that in this scenario, he is likely to seek to implement measures to reverse the trend, stabilise the economy and prevent a rise in inflation. However, “his room for action is limited” and, although he intends to continue with the “trade war”, doing so would be a risky decision that could turn out to be a strategic error.

Meanwhile, uncertainty remains in the air. The key date will be April 2 , when the Trump administration will announce the final list of structural tariffs. The specialist explained that Mexico and global trade are cautiously awaiting the next moves of the American president.

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El cargo Trade war and recession? Expert warns of risks for Mexico in 2025 apareció primero en T21.

The trade relationship between Mexico and the United States is a recurring theme that has intensified as a result of the tariff and immigration policies promoted by the White House and the arrival of its new tenant.

Economic policy specialist Luis Foncerrada Pascal explained how the decisions made by the United States directly impact the Mexican economy and what measures would be necessary to counteract their effects, within the framework of the First Ordinary General Assembly of the Mexican Association of Freight Agents (Amacarga) .

The specialist commented that Trump ‘s trade policies , aimed primarily at reducing its trade deficit with countries such as Mexico, will have more harmful effects on the United States than beneficial, especially in key sectors such as steel and aluminum .

“Steel production in the United States fell by 1% in 2024, and aluminum production fell by 10%, despite tariffs imposed to protect these industries,” Foncerrada noted.

He stressed that, rather than achieving the goal of strengthening the U.S. domestic industry, these tariffs have only made products more expensive for consumers in both the United States and Mexico.

“Tariffs (taxes) are not going to work. What we will see is an increase in costs for the consumer without a real change in domestic production,” said Foncerrada.

One of the crucial topics discussed during the conference was also the growing problem of fentanyl and its relationship to the immigration and security policies implemented by the Donald Trump administration . Foncerrada explained that fentanyl, a highly lethal drug, continues to enter the United States from Mexico and China, despite efforts to reduce its trafficking.

According to the specialist, 55 million fentanyl pills were sold in 2024 , which is equivalent to 390 million lethal doses . He explained that this represents a significant threat to both public health in the United States and border security.

Foncerrada stressed that Trump’s policies , which have sought to control immigration and drug trafficking, are not enough to solve the fentanyl problem . He stressed the need for a broader approach that encompasses not only immigration policies, but also efforts to control fentanyl production, consumption in the United States, and distribution routes that connect several countries.

“A broader approach is required to address fentanyl production and distribution routes involving multiple countries, including Mexico,” Foncerrada said.

He stressed that border control alone cannot solve the problem.

Regarding migration , he made it clear that the United States cannot do without immigrant labor without facing serious economic consequences. He explained that eight million immigrants currently work in the United States, which represents approximately 5% of the American workforce , a fact that highlights the importance of this sector for the economic development of the neighboring country.

The economist explained that, due to the aging of the American population , migrants play a crucial role in sectors such as construction, agriculture and services , which depend on this flow of labor.

“The United States depends on immigrant labor for key sectors such as construction and services; without this flow, economic growth levels could not be sustained,” said Foncerrada.

The analysis of the US trade deficit also occupied an important place at the conference. For Foncerrada, this deficit is structural , and will not be solved through tariffs .

Despite protectionist policies, the economist explained that the United States continues to have a trade deficit because its investment exceeds its savings , a difference that trade tariffs will not be able to reverse.

“The only way to solve this deficit is not through tariffs, but by increasing savings or reducing investment. Without these measures, tariffs are not effective,” said Foncerrada, making it clear that current policies are not sufficient to address the underlying problem.

Another central theme of Foncerrada’s analysis was the crucial role of remittances sent by Mexican migrants in the United States. According to the specialist, in 2024 remittances reached 65 billion dollars , which represented 3.5% of Mexico’s GDP .

For him, without this constant flow of money, Mexico’s economic prospects would be much more complicated. He explained that without them, many families and communities would be in an “even more difficult” situation.

Automotive sector: tariffs threaten competitiveness

Regarding the automotive sector , Foncerrada commented that Mexico remains a key supplier for the US market, with 39% of the US automobile market coming from Mexican territory.

However, the specialist warned that tariffs on imports of Mexican products will affect the sector and could increase vehicle prices for American consumers, affecting both the competitiveness of the Mexican industry and costs in the American market.

Foncerrada said that tariff policies will not only impact trade, but will also generate a domino effect on final prices.

Finally, he concluded that, despite the obvious challenges facing the Mexican economy, economic cooperation between Mexico and the United States remains essential .

Foncerrada called for adjusting trade and migration policies to create a more balanced and mutually beneficial relationship. He stressed that current tensions should not hinder cooperation between the two nations.

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El cargo Tariffs, migration and remittances, key challenges for Mexico in its relationship with the US apareció primero en T21.

If Donald Trump, President of the United States, imposes 25% tariffs on various Mexican products , Mexico’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) would fall by almost 4%, estimated Rolando Paniagua, director of business expansion at Banco Base , who said that if the tariff measure were to be implemented “it would put the Mexican economy in serious trouble.”

In the framework of the Foreign Trade Congress. Globalization, trade agreements and geopolitics: Impact on business growth , organized by Concanaco Servytur , Paniagua recalled that in the case of tariffs on steel and aluminum , Mexico has a deficit with its northern neighbor, and noted that the measure would come into effect immediately on March 12.

He said that this situation already occurred in 2018-2019, and Mexico benefited from this tariff imposition on steel and aluminum by the United States. He indicated that the country’s exports to its northern neighbor increased by 7.48% from June 2018 to May 2019, compared to the previous 12 months.

“Mexico has benefited from this situation because exports of these materials to the United States have increased. We will see what can be negotiated and done between now and March 12,” he stressed.

The specialist considered that the scenario of the Mexico-United States relationship will be very complicated, due to Trump’s threats , for which, the country must be ” prepared to face this environment of uncertainty and volatility, because the threats will continue .”

He said that companies must be resilient to emerge from this situation, and that they must implement new strategies.

Areas of opportunity in foreign trade

At the conference Foreign Trade in Transformation: Challenges and Opportunities for Mexico , Carlos Palencia, general director of the Maquiladora and Export Manufacturing Industry (Index) , considered that the pattern of world trade is being dictated by the government and not by the business sector, as is happening in the United States with Donald Trump’s threats.

During his participation, he said that manufacturing companies, known as IMMEX (Manufacturing, Maquiladora and Export Services Industry), are the ones supporting the Mexican economy , since there are more than 6,500 productive and service companies.

He indicated that he has an IMMEX 4.0 proposal for the development of suppliers in order to be less dependent on a supplier, for example, an Asian one, and for companies to be more productive.

In turn, César Morales, consultant and academic, pointed out that Mexico should take advantage of its strategic location in North America to regionalize supply chains, and identified some factors that make the country less competitive in foreign trade , such as a complex regulatory framework and poor infrastructure.

Morales pointed out that the automotive industry remains a pillar of Mexican exports, and with the relocation of production lines in Mexico ( nearshoring ) it can boost production and the shipment of units abroad.

He said that Mexico must be flexible and adapt to global changes and must promote and establish collaboration with other countries, because “ the future of foreign trade is very promising .”

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El cargo Trump tariffs could cause a contraction of the Mexican economy: experts apareció primero en T21.

The recent signing of the executive order Unleashing American Energy by Donald Trump, President of the United States, is causing concern in various sectors , especially in the automotive industry. According to Miguel Elizalde, director of the consultancy Mobility Sustainable , this action seeks to eliminate incentives established in the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, which promoted the acquisition of electric vehicles and the development of charging infrastructure.

“In this case, you have a series of actions, one of those actions is literally ending or concluding the support for the incentives that were included in the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, where incentives were granted for the acquisition of electric vehicles and incentives for the charging infrastructure of these electric vehicles. It was not exclusively for heavy vehicles, it was for all electric vehicles. So what does this mean? Will it have an impact? Yes, it will have an impact, but it has to be properly dimensioned,” said Elizalde.

The specialist stressed that Trump’s policies do not prohibit the sale of electric vehicles; however, the elimination of incentives could reduce sales and delay global decarbonization goals .

“It will slow down the transition to zero emissions. It will not stop it, it will slow it down, and at least, in our understanding, it would be these four years of the Trump administration,” Elizalde explained.

Regarding Mexico , Elizalde said the impact will be indirect. Mexico makes electric vehicles, but it also produces diesel and gasoline engines, so it could adjust to changes in demand.

“If someone stops buying electric cars, they will buy diesel, and Mexico makes both. The impact could be more noticeable in the plants that currently produce electric vehicles for export,” he said.

Although a slowdown in exports to the United States is expected , Elizalde considered that Mexico’s leadership in the production and export of vehicles will not be significantly compromised, as long as there are no renegotiations of the Treaty between Mexico, the United States and Canada (T-MEC) or new tariff measures.

Heavy vehicle production

In the cumulative period from January to December 2024 , heavy vehicle production showed a drop of 4.3% compared to the same period in 2023. Diesel vehicles, which continue to be the most produced, experienced a decrease of 4.7%, while natural gas vehicles stood out with an increase of 115 percent.

While the trend is positive for cleaner vehicles, US policies could slow progress towards the transition to zero emissions, Elizalde warned.

Export of heavy vehicles

Regarding heavy vehicle exports, during 2024 they also reflected a drop of 10.2% compared to 2023, with diesel vehicles being the most exported, with a drop of 10.6 percent.

However, natural gas vehicles saw a significant increase of 76.9 percent. Trump’s policies , which seek to eliminate incentives for electric vehicles, could affect this trend towards exporting cleaner vehicles.

Emissions and the global challenge

The specialist also highlighted the importance of understanding the global context. The United States generates 12% of global emissions, and of that percentage, transportation represents 40 percent. Within this sector, heavy vehicles contribute 16 percent.

“Heavy vehicles in the United States account for approximately 0.75% of global emissions. If we eliminated all heavy vehicles, the impact on global emissions would be minimal, around 0.2%,” Elizalde said.

However, these policies could also slow down global emissions reduction strategies , given the weight of the United States in the world economy.

“And it may take a little longer to achieve the emissions reductions that the United Nations had at a global level , but the United States no longer has those goals,” Elizalde explained.

Elizalde also addressed the possibility that Trump’s policies could be revised or adjusted depending on their economic effectiveness.

“These measures are designed to strengthen the US economy. If at some point they see that they are not working, they could modify them. In addition, some states could decide to maintain incentives at the local level,” he said.

The expert concluded that although Trump’s actions represent a temporary obstacle, the global automotive industry is committed to the transition to cleaner technologies.

 “Electric vehicle sales will not disappear; they will simply slow down. Innovation and market demand will continue to drive this change,” he concluded.

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El cargo Trump, Heavy Vehicles, and the Energy Transition apareció primero en T21.

By 2025, the economy is expected to have high volatility and significant changes in monetary and fiscal policies , according to specialists from Vector Analysis .

Rodolfo Navarrete, chief economist at Vector Casa de Bolsa , stressed that “the main risk comes from the change of government in the United States. President Donald Trump could use tariff threats and other drastic measures as a negotiating strategy with key countries such as Mexico.”

In this context, in its “Economic Outlook 2025” report, Vector Analysis expects Trump to implement selective actions without escalating the situation , which could avoid severe repercussions on trade relations. However, Navarrete warned of the possibility of 25% tariffs or even threats of military intervention in Mexico, although he considered this scenario to be unlikely.

For his part, Luis Adrián Muñiz, economic analyst, highlighted that the Mexican economy will continue to show signs of slowdown in 2025 , with an estimated growth of 1.5 percent.

This performance is explained by the poor performance of key sectors such as construction and public spending. However, private consumption, supported by social programs, will remain the main economic driver.

As for inflation , it is projected to close in a range of 3.5% to 3.8%, favored by a base effect towards the middle of the year.

This would open up space for the Bank of Mexico to reduce the reference rate by 25 basis points during each of its meetings, closing the year at 8 percent.

“The monetary stance will remain restrictive, but we see a clear possibility of gradual adjustments,” Muñiz added.

In addition, Alejandro Arellano, an economist and international analyst, indicated that the US economy, although weaker compared to 2024, will maintain a certain stability with an expected growth of 2.2 percent.

However, Trump’s protectionist policies could generate inflationary tensions and affect global supply chains .

“Consumption and services will continue to be fundamental pillars, but tariffs and restrictions could counteract these advances,” explained Arellano.

Elsewhere, the eurozone is expected to experience a modest recovery , moving from 0.8% growth in 2024 to 1.2% in 2025, driven by interest rate cuts and fiscal efforts.

On the other hand, China will face challenges in stimulating its economy , with projected growth of 4.5%, while strengthening its strategy of technological autonomy in the face of trade tensions.

Regarding the fixed-income market , Ricardo Bravo, a financial strategies specialist, anticipated a positive performance thanks to inflationary convergence and global monetary easing.

The exchange rate is expected to be volatile with a bias towards appreciation, closing the year at levels close to 19 pesos per dollar in an optimistic scenario.

The experts explained that 2025 is shaping up to be a crucial year, where the ability to adapt to political and economic challenges will set the tone for governments and investors. The evolution of trade and fiscal policies will be decisive for global stability and growth.

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El cargo 2025, with Economic Challenges and Global Tensions: Vector Analysis apareció primero en T21.